As one of the four main materials of lithium batteries, negative electrode materials were once in short supply due to the shortage of graphitization capacity in 2021.
The short-term contradiction between supply and demand is superimposed on the optimistic prediction of the downstream new energy market, and the negative material factories have joined the army of production expansion. According to incomplete statistics, the planned production capacity of the industry exceeds 6 million tons, which far exceeds the market demand in terms of figures alone, but the progress of production expansion still needs to be continuously observed.
The market generally believes that negative electrode materials will still be in a tight balance in the short term, and the inflection point of supply and demand may be delayed. The short board supplied is not the cathode material itself, but whether the graphitization capacity can keep up in time and whether the price rise pressure of raw materials can be resolved. At present, the negative pole link has not yet stepped out of the absolute leader. In the multi legged competition pattern, cost reduction has become the key to competition, and enterprises mastering graphitization and advanced technology are expected to stand out.
expansion tide after tide
Lithium battery materials have reached a new level driven by demand, and negative electrode materials are no exception. Since 2021, manufacturers in the industry have frequently thrown out production expansion plans.
The reporter of securities times · e company found that only the seven companies in the first and second echelons of the industry have a total capacity planning of 2.3 million tons, almost three times the global shipments in 2021.
If more manufacturers are included, the capacity scale will be even more amazing. According to xinlune information, the production capacity of cathode materials is planned to exceed 6 million tons in 2024; The statistics of Longzhong information are about 6.44 million tons.
On the demand side, Gaogong lithium battery is expected to generate a total of 1800gwh battery demand in global power, energy storage and other scenarios in 2025.
According to the estimation of 12000 tons of negative material required for 1GWh battery, the demand for negative material is 2.16 million tons. This means that the above capacity scale has far exceeded the demand in 2025.
"From the capacity figures planned by various enterprises alone, there is indeed a risk of overcapacity, but from the perspective of effective capacity, whether there will be overcapacity remains to be discussed." Wang Shuangcai, general manager of Hunan Rongli New Material Technology Co., Ltd., told the reporter of securities times · e company that with the support of upstream and downstream resources and teams, the investment of enterprises is relatively rational; For some blind entrants without resource accumulation, the probability of their expanded capacity is invalid, and there will be a greater possibility of idling in the future.
Therefore, the negative material capacity is more likely to be reflected in structural surplus. A person from a leading negative pole manufacturer told the securities times · e company that at present, only the first tier beiteri, Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) and Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) , and new entrants are more concentrated in low-end products.
The expectation of market and policy will urge manufacturers to throw out advanced planning. Moke, chief analyst of real lithium research, told the reporter of securities times · e company that at present, the whole industry is optimistic about the market prospect. In order to seize the market share, the enterprise capacity planning will be appropriately advanced, and the specific implementation will be carried out in stages according to the market situation. "This is a dynamic process."
Wang Shuangcai also said that in the process of project approval, due to the current tight card of local energy evaluation indicators, in order to avoid the uncertainty caused by policy changes, enterprises will generally consider the layout in the next 3-5 years when planning projects, and try to win the energy evaluation at one time to save the subsequent approval cost.
In addition, there may be some deviation in the statistical data. "The negative electrode material covers multiple processes, and the front-end and back-end processes are sometimes not completed in one place. When calculating the capacity, the market may simply superimpose the local capacity, which will repeat the calculation to some extent, virtually enlarging the capacity scale." Wang Shuangcai said.
According to the situation this year, the supply of cathode materials will remain relatively tight. According to the above-mentioned manufacturers, the demand fed back by downstream customers still far exceeds the output that can be achieved this year.
"It is estimated that the global output of negative electrode materials will be about 1.2 million tons this year and the demand will be about 1.05 million tons. By 2023, there will not be too much bottleneck in the production capacity of negative electrode materials. The short board lies in graphitization and raw materials." Cheng Ling, general manager of xinlune information China Department, told the reporter of securities times · e company.
cost rising and gross profit under pressure
Negative material manufacturers are enjoying the sweetness brought by strong demand, but the challenges of graphitization gap and rising prices of raw materials can not be ignored. The cost pressure has been reflected in the gross profit margin of some manufacturers. With the price transmission, the pressure will be borne by the upstream and downstream links.
Negative electrode material manufacturers are generally short of capacity at present, and there is indeed a demand for expansion. Wang Shuangcai said that since last year, the capacity utilization rate of cathode plants that can really be put into operation is still very high, with an average of more than 90%. In the case of capacity shortage, some negative electrode factories will go outside to find a substitute factory in the form of OEM to expand the supply.
This situation also occurred in 20172018 when electric vehicles were driven by policies, mainly due to insufficient prediction of industry demand at the negative material end.
Liang Shuting, an analyst of cathode materials at Longzhong information, said that in 2021, the shipment of cathode materials was about 717600 tons, and the overall capacity of the industry was 784000 tons. According to this calculation, the capacity utilization rate reached 91.5%.
According to public information, some listed companies in the industry, such as beiteri and Shenzhen Xfh Technology Co.Ltd(300890) negative electrode materials, even exceeded 100%, 117.6% and 111.63% respectively; The capacity utilization rate of Shangtai technology also reached 115.95% from January to June 2021.
Short supply has opened up the sales of negative electrode manufacturers, but the pressure of rising costs has also hit at the same time. In the cost composition of negative electrode materials, needle coke, petroleum coke and graphitization of raw materials account for about 90%. Since the second half of last year, the prices of the above-mentioned raw materials and processes have increased significantly. Especially under the background of dual control of energy consumption, the release of graphitization capacity is blocked, and the negative electrode materials are in the dilemma of "equal rice to the pot".
"In the middle of last year, the price of needle coke was only about 6000 yuan / ton, and now it has exceeded 10000 yuan; the price of petroleum coke was less than 4000 yuan / ton at that time, but now it is close to 8000 yuan / ton, which is nearly doubled; the graphitization outsourcing processing fee was only more than 16000 yuan / ton before. At present, the price of long-term association has risen to 25000 yuan / ton, and the small-scale retail quotation is even as high as 28000 yuan / ton." Wang Shuangcai said that at present, the pressure of rising costs can be transmitted in part, but the proportion is still relatively small, about 30% - 40%.
Keda Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600499) also said in the annual report that compared with graphitization processing, the price increase of artificial graphite products is relatively small, and the pressure of rising costs has not been fully transmitted to the downstream.
According to Wang Shuangcai, the price of negative electrode materials is still dominated by large manufacturers. Some manufacturers with their own graphitization capacity can keep the price very low, which virtually suppresses the overall price of the industry.
Looking through the published annual reports of major cathode manufacturers, the gross profit margin of most companies showed a downward trend. In 2021, the average price of beiteri products decreased to a certain extent. The gross profit margin of negative electrode materials business was 31.35%, a year-on-year decrease of 3.7 percentage points, and the gross profit margin of Shenzhen Xfh Technology Co.Ltd(300890) graphite negative electrode materials was 26.11%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.66 percentage points.
Moreover, the bargaining power of negative electrode materials in the upstream is also gradually declining, and the cash flow is under certain pressure.
A lithium battery practitioner in East China told the reporter of securities times · e company that at present, the overall payment credit period of raw materials and outsourcing graphitization is relatively short, and some suppliers begin to adopt the settlement policy of payment to delivery; In order to lock in the graphitization capacity, the negative electrode material factory will pay a long-term cooperation performance fee to the graphitization processing enterprise, thus occupying part of the working capital.
In fact, the sharing of cost pressure in different links is a dynamic game process. Cheng Ling said that the profits of cathode material manufacturers are relatively good. Compared with the profits of about 15% of cathode manufacturers, some cathode manufacturers can reach 30%.
There will be an agreed line in the industrial chain. If the cost increase does not exceed this line, it will be borne by the negative pole manufacturers, and if it exceeds it, it will be borne by the battery manufacturers. "At the beginning of last year, some small and medium-sized manufacturers increased their prices, and by the third and fourth quarters, the whole industry was basically increasing their prices."
Taking the artificial graphite with the highest proportion at present as an example, the data of xinlune lithium battery showed that the low-end and middle-end artificial graphite were quoted at 36000 yuan / ton and 50000 yuan / ton respectively in early April, up 64% and 20% compared with the beginning of 2021; The quotations of high-end power and high-end digital were 68000 tons and 76000 tons respectively, with an increase of 20% and 5% respectively.
Liang Shuting, an analyst of cathode materials at Longzhong information, said that there are basically no intermediate traders in the cathode material market, and the price of cathode materials is relatively stable. At present, although the cost is under pressure, the overall profit should still be guaranteed. However, with the advancement of the market-oriented reform of electricity price, the cost of cathode materials may continue to rise, and the possibility of price increase will not be ruled out in the future.
integrated layout speed up
For a long time, most negative electrode manufacturers generally outsource graphitization links with large investment and high pollution. Under the background of the current shortage of graphitization capacity, more and more negative electrode manufacturers begin to build their own graphitization production lines and layout integrated projects to ensure the safety of the supply chain on the basis of reducing the overall production cost.
Graphitization accounts for about 50% of the cost of negative electrode materials, while the power consumption of one ton of graphitization capacity is 1400016000 kwh, and the electricity cost accounts for more than 60%. According to the estimates of insiders, the cost of graphitization will rise by 1400 yuan / ton if the electricity price rises by 10 cents.
The existing graphitization capacity holders are still mainly third-party processing enterprises, with a small and scattered pattern. Cheng Ling said that among the more than 80 graphitization projects included in the statistics, the production capacity center before last year was concentrated in the range of 1 Shenzhen Zhongheng Huafa Co.Ltd(000020) 000 tons, and now it has been upgraded to the scale of 3 Tianma Microelectronics Co.Ltd(000050) 000 tons. In previous years, the volume of the negative electrode material factory itself was not large, and 10000 tons a year was quite considerable, so the investment in graphitization was not economical.
With the promotion of production expansion, the self built graphitization capacity of negative electrode manufacturers gradually has a scale effect. For example, the production expansion projects recently announced by beiteri, such as Yunnan Dali, Ningxia Shizuishan and Shanxi Yangquan, are all integrated production lines Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) the new projects in Meishan, Sichuan and Baotou, Inner Mongolia are also equipped with graphitization capacity; Most of these negative electrode material projects are on the order of more than 100000 tons. According to Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) plan, the negative electrode material capacity will be 34 China Tianying Inc(000035) 0000 tons / year in the future, while the graphitization processing capacity will reach 295000 tons / year.
Wang Shuangcai said that at present, the investment scale of 10000 tons of graphitization production line is about 100 million, and the annual output value can reach 250 million. According to this calculation, including the construction period, the investment cost can be recovered in about two years or at most three years.
The profit increase brought by self supplied graphitization is very obvious Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) it is estimated that the gross profit margin per ton will increase by about 8 percentage points for every 25 percentage points increase in the self supply rate of graphitization of negative electrode manufacturers.
Shangtai technology, which started from graphitization processing, has achieved complete self-sufficiency in graphitization, with a gross profit margin of 38.02% in 2020, ranking firmly in the forefront of the industry Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) self supply rate is also relatively leading. The annual report shows that the company has an effective capacity of more than 150000 tons of negative electrode materials by the end of 2021, including 110000 tons of graphitization capacity. Based on this, it is estimated that the self supply rate is about 70%. The company also has the world's largest graphitization kiln for negative electrode materials, with a monomer production capacity of 50000 tons. In 2021, the selling price of Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) cathode products decreased due to the increase of power shipments, but the gross profit margin of cathode materials still increased by 4.18 percentage points to 29.49%.
Graphitization project was blocked due to dual control of energy consumption in the second half of last year, and the difficulty of approval has been relaxed recently. Cheng Ling said that due to the great downward pressure on the economy this year and the graphitization bottleneck restricting the development of the whole lithium battery industry chain, local policies have been adjusted and are no longer "one size fits all". As long as it is reasonable and within the scope of local general control, projects can generally pass the examination and approval.
Many experts interviewed said that in order to cope with the total energy consumption control, some manufacturers would break up the projects and apply last year, without touching the red line of the total; Now, the policy adjustment is not to control the total amount and intensity, and the main assessment index is the GDP contributed by single ton coal consumption, that is, considering the economic benefits of the project, the negative pole integration project is welcomed because of its higher input-output ratio.
However, there are still local differences in the approval progress. Insiders reported that the graphitization capacity around Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei was strictly controlled during the Winter Olympics. The southwest of Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia are also crowded with graphite projects, so there are a large number of projects in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia Shenzhen Xfh Technology Co.Ltd(300890) a person from the Securities Department told the reporter of the securities times · e company that the negative pole integration project of the company in Suining, Sichuan has not been evaluated, "because the concentration of enterprises there is relatively high, the approval time will be slower."
Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) relevant person in charge told the reporter of securities times · e company that from the perspective of long-term development of the enterprise, the cooperation between self built graphitization and new outsourced graphitization manufacturers is very important.
With the release of new production capacity, the price of graphitization processing is expected to be reduced. Cheng Ling predicts that the capacity of graphitization will reach 1.7-1.9 million tons this year, but the new capacity will be put into operation one after another, and the climbing cycle is long. Therefore, the current supply of graphitization capacity is still tight. At present, the overall operating rate of the industry is about 80%. It is expected that the tight supply of graphitization will be alleviated by the fourth quarter of this year.
Liang Shuting also said that with the expansion of graphitization agent factories in Guizhou, Yunnan, Sichuan, Shanxi and other places, it is expected that the graphitization capacity will be released successively from April to may, and the graphitization price is expected to drop to 1700018000 yuan / ton within the year.
reducing cost and increasing efficiency to become the winner
When a large amount of production capacity rushes to the market, the competition of cathode material plants becomes more intense, reducing cost and increasing efficiency has become the general trend, and technological innovation and fine production are the ability test in front of the company.
At present, the negative electrode material factory presents a competitive pattern of "three most small", with high market concentration, but it has not yet stepped out of the absolute leader. According to the data of lithium battery of Gaogong, in 2021, beiteri, Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) , Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) and Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) accounted for 23%, 14% and 13% respectively, and Kaijin energy, Shangtai technology and Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) also increased rapidly, with a great potential to catch up and surpass, accounting for 13%, 9% and 8% respectively.
"With the increase of market capacity, the diversion of superimposed talents and the maturity of technical routes, the competition pattern of negative electrode materials is also evolving slowly. Although the leading enterprises are gradually expanding their capacity, there will not be too many companies that can squeeze into the first tier in the future, and individuals expect up to 1-3." Mercer said that the competition of Chinese negative electrode material enterprises is mainly reflected in the catch-up of the second tier enterprises to the first tier enterprises and the competition between the second tier enterprises.
Over the past three years, the new registration of negative electrode material enterprises has gradually decreased. According to the enterprise survey data, there are 924 existing negative electrode material related enterprises in China. From 2019 to 2021, the number of new related enterprises registered is 169, 98 and 51 respectively, and the number of revoked injection sales is 47, 62 and 67 respectively.
"If the concept of cathode materials is not standardized in western medicine, it is more obvious that the production of cathode materials is more standardized. However, if the concept of cathode materials is not standardized in western medicine, it is more obvious." Wang Shuangcai said that the main models of raw materials purchased by the company are not many, but the needs of different end users are different. In the production process, there will be the cross use of a variety of raw material models. The quality of final products varies greatly, and high-end products will obtain a high premium rate.
Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) relevant person in charge also said that based on the diversity of demand for negative electrode materials, the negative electrode material factory needs to invest more energy in technology leadership, quality stability and product cost performance.
In terms of production process, Liang Shuting said that crucible furnaces are widely used in the market at present, with large power consumption and high pollution. With the technological evolution, some of them are produced by box furnaces, which can reduce power consumption by 40 ~ 50%, but the overall process is relatively difficult, and only a few leading enterprises have stable production capacity. In addition, continuous production can also reduce power consumption and shorten the production cycle, but it is mainly used in the field of low-end power at present.
The thermal efficiency of production process is the key factor of cost reduction, which directly affects the competitiveness of different types of products.
The relevant person in charge of beiteri told the reporter of the securities times · e company that the energy efficiency level of the existing graphitization production devices and processes is very low. Only a small part of the energy is really used to heat the negative electrode materials, and most of the energy is wasted in the process of heating containers or auxiliary materials and frequent temperature rise and drop. The energy consumption required for the production of natural graphite is only equivalent to 1 / 3 of that of artificial graphite. It is expected that the share of natural graphite in the negative electrode material market will gradually rise in the future.
Negative electrode manufacturers are also strengthening their control over raw materials. Beiteri's production capacity extends upstream. It includes 120000 tons of needle coke production line in the planning of Shandong Binzhou cathode material project. Suntech is developing more cost-effective and widely used coke raw materials, and exploring the matching negative material production equipment and production process to meet the diversified design needs of lithium batteries through modification.
At the same time, the innovation and evolution of new technologies provide the negative electrode material factory with the opportunity to overtake on the curve. Under the catalysis of 4680 battery demand, silicon-based negative electrode is expected to usher in an explosion, with a theoretical specific capacity of 4200 MAH / g, ten times higher than that of graphite negative electrode; However, the defects such as easy volume expansion and poor conductivity still need to be solved. At present, the three major negative electrode manufacturers beiteri, Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) , and cross-border players such as Shandong Shida Shenghua Chemical Group Company Limite(603026) , Chengdu Guibao Science & Technology Co.Ltd(300019) also participate in the competition.
In Wang Shuangcai's view, the current new energy industry is in the stage of rapid development, and there are still many opportunities for new enterprises. With the continuous improvement of the sales volume of new forces in car manufacturing, second-line and even third-line battery manufacturers are gradually rising. They lack bargaining power in the face of large negative electrode manufacturers, which gives unprecedented development opportunities for relatively small negative electrode material factories. Of course, the premise is that enterprises should have sufficient technical capacity Management capacity and the ability to mobilize upstream and downstream resources.
