01 the end of the economy has not arrived, and the contradiction has switched from the supply side to the demand side. The data will continue to decline after the first quarter, resulting in two waves of steady growth policy infrastructure investment took the lead and real estate consumption followed up. There was ample room for monetary policy in the second quarter.
02 global inflation cycle is still uncertain, but the contribution of supply chain factors to the current inflation in the United States is more than 50% Under the benchmark, global inflation will fall rapidly in the second half of the year, but the first half of the year is still a stage of high inflation and external tightening, and the expected peak of overseas tightening in the second half of the year may fall.
03 China’s financial cycle and the tail of the debt cycle are dominated by long-term debt shocks. In the first half of the year, environmental bonds were better than stocks, and reversed in the second half of the year the credit pulse of the whole year is weaker than that of previous years, which means that the valuation support is limited compared with that of previous years. Superimposed on the global inflation cycle, the investment style will rotate repeatedly during the year, excluding the risk of stagflation.
04 short term vigilance against the impact of the epidemic on China and the global economy in the second quarter, as well as the emergence of China like liquidity traps in the second quarter, we focused on the possibility of overall policy setting and adjustment and the rhythm of specific policy implementation. The core influencing factor of the equity market is whether the fundamentals can be successfully bottomed out in the second quarter.
05 focus on three main lines: new and old infrastructure (manufacturing investment) on the main line of stable growth; In the second wave of steady growth, the dilemma of real estate before consumption reversed; From a long-term perspective, the supply of primary products (crude oil, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) ) and Chinese pricing varieties driven by steady growth under geographical uncertainty.
the above content is extracted from Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) securities issued Research Report published . Please refer to the full version of the report for specific analysis contents (including risk tips, etc.)
