After the market rebound, maintain stability, light industry is slightly stronger than the market. A shares continued to decline in the first ten days of March, rebounded in the middle, and showed an overall shock pattern in the second ten days of March; U.S. stocks rebounded strongly in the middle and late days after falling in the first ten days of the month, and the current point is higher than that at the beginning of the month; Hong Kong stocks rebounded after falling rapidly, and the current point is basically the same as that at the beginning of the month. The overall performance of A-share light industry manufacturing is slightly stronger than that of the market, while the non essential consumption of Hong Kong stocks and the Hong Kong light industry manufacturing index (CITIC) are weaker than the Hang Seng Index; US stocks’ non essential consumer goods were basically in line with the S & P and Dow Jones indices Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) (-7.6%)、 Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) (-6.9%)。 Minhua Holdings (- 6.1%), blue moon group (- 8.2%), SIMORE International (- 34.7%).
Industry data: the retail sales of FMCG grew steadily, and the growth rate of real estate transaction and construction continued to fluctuate downward.
Overall consumption growth accelerated, fast moving consumer goods increased year-on-year, and durable consumer goods decreased year-on-year. From January to February, social zero increased by 6.7% year-on-year, an increase of 5 percentage points over the previous month. The data of FMCG in the light industry sub industry showed a similar trend. Specifically, the growth of retail sales of cultural and office supplies accelerated, with a year-on-year increase of 11.1% from January to February and a growth rate of 3.7% over December; Retail sales of daily necessities increased by 10.7% year-on-year from January to February, and the growth rate was 8.1% lower than that in December. Furniture, as a durable consumer goods, was mainly affected by the high base from January to February last year. The retail sales fell year-on-year, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 6.0% from January to February and a 2.9% decline from December.
Online data: growth accelerated in February. In January 2022, the sales of tmall jd.com were 11.1/6/6/6.1 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 2.7% / 8.7% / 4.9% / – 10.2% respectively; In February 2022, the sales of tmall jd.com were 6.2/5/4/5.3 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.9% / 43.4% / 14.8% / 25.5% respectively; The total year-on-year growth rate from January to February was 4.5% / 22.0% / 8.5% / 3.4% respectively.
Company announcements, industry news and overview of public offering positions in the light industry sector. Blue moon group and Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) issued announcements related to equity incentive Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited(000488) , Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co.Ltd(003006) , Chenguang issued annual report Shenzhen Yuto Packaging Technology Co.Ltd(002831) , Org Technology Co.Ltd(002701) , Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.Ltd(002191) , Guangzhou Shangpin Home Collection Co.Ltd(300616) announce relevant announcements of equity pledge. As of 21q4, the market value of light industry positions in the top ten heavy positions of public offering was 23.3 billion, accounting for 0.74% of the total market value of the top ten heavy positions, an increase of 0.07% compared with 21q3.
Investment suggestion: optimistic about the head enterprises whose valuation has been corrected to a relatively low level. Focus on recommending high-quality leading enterprises with strong performance support and strong long-term growth certainty. Household is optimistic about the opportunity of valuation recovery after the policy risk stabilizes, with emphasis on Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) ; The tobacco sector is optimistic about medium – and long-term growth opportunities, with emphasis on smore International; The household goods sector is optimistic about the marginal improvement opportunities of consumption recovery and cost pressure, and focuses on Chenguang shares, C&S Paper Co.Ltd(002511) , Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co.Ltd(003006) ; The paper packaging sector is optimistic about the opportunity of stabilizing the cost pressure and improving the concentration of the leading enterprises. It is recommended that Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) .
Risk warning: repeated impact of epidemic situation; Real estate construction continued to decline; The competition pattern of the industry has deteriorated.
