Key investment points
Market review: this week, the pharmaceutical biological index fell by 0.15%, underperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.58 percentage points, ranking the 23rd in the rise and fall of the industry. Since the beginning of 2022, the pharmaceutical industry has fallen by 12.18%, outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.27 percentage points, and ranked the 17th in the rise and fall of the industry This week, the valuation level (pe-ttm) of the pharmaceutical industry was 29 times, with a premium rate of 97% (- 2.7pp) relative to all a shares, 50% (- 2.3pp) relative to all A-Shares excluding banks, and 145% (- 5.4pp) relative to CSI 300. In terms of the pharmaceutical sub industry, the five sub industry sectors rose this week, and the hospital was the sub industry with the largest increase, with an increase of about 6.5%. The sub industries of medical equipment and traditional Chinese Medicine III ranked the second and third with an increase of about 2.1% and 1.1% respectively.
The sub industry with the largest increase since the beginning of the year is pharmaceutical circulation, up about 11.8%.
The Chinese medicine sector welcomed the favorable policies, and the financial report entered the intensive disclosure period. The pharmaceutical sector fluctuated this week. On the one hand, the hospital sector rebounded from the bottom, leading the increase; On the other hand, this week, the State Council Office issued the “14th five year plan” for the development of traditional Chinese medicine, which further clearly supports the promotion of traditional Chinese medicine innovation, traditional Chinese medicine base medicine, internationalization of traditional Chinese medicine, quality control of traditional Chinese medicine, traditional Chinese medicine medical services, medical insurance payment and other measures, so as to promote the steady and rapid development of the industry, and the traditional Chinese medicine sector also led the increase. In April, the annual report and the first quarterly report will be intensively disclosed. We need to pay attention to the impact of epidemic interference on performance expectations. Configuration: 1) it is recommended to add large market capitalization leaders with stable performance; 2) Continue to recommend the traditional Chinese medicine sector, independent and controllable supply chain, such as the field of pharmaceutical equipment and consumables, and undervalued and growing small cap stocks; 3) In addition, the current epidemic situation is grim, and appropriate attention should be paid to covid-19 industrial chain theme investment opportunities.
According to our annual strategy for 2022, in the era of normalization of medical insurance pressure and post epidemic, we will focus on looking for varieties of “through medical insurance” and “epidemic desensitization”. Medical insurance pressure will become the norm in the future. On the one hand, we believe that leading pharmaceutical enterprises such as Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) , Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) etc. are expected to cross the “medical insurance border” through “continuous innovation + internationalization”; On the other hand, medical insurance immunization is still a better choice. For the downstream TOC end, focus on the varieties that do not account for medical insurance, such as self funded biological drugs, traditional Chinese medicine consumer goods, medical beauty upstream products, etc; The tob end at the upstream of the industrial chain is relatively immune to policies, such as the CXO section of the Chuang Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) chain. The equipment section includes pharmaceutical machinery equipment, pharmacy automation equipment, consumables production equipment, etc., and the field of life science reagents and consumables.
In the post epidemic era, we think we should focus on the field of “desensitization” of the epidemic, 1) vaccine varieties or vaccine oversold varieties that are not disturbed by covid-19; 2) When peg is less than 1, the undervalued value or low expected variety with upward long-term fundamental trend; 3) The varieties of medical services that have been damaged by the previous epidemic and the recovery of demand in the future.
The steady combination of this week’week’s steady combination: Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) ( Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) ).
The elastic combination of this week will be the elastic combination of the week: the elastic combination of the week’elastic combination of the week: ‘ Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) Co.Ltd(600129) ( Shanghai Runda Medical Technology Co.Ltd(603108) ).
Risk warning: drug price reduction risk; The implementation progress of medical reform policy is lower than the expected risk; Risk of R & D failure.
