Key investment points
In March, the sales decline of the top 100 real estate enterprises continued to expand, and the sales of the head real estate enterprises continued to decline. Kerui data show that in March, the top 100 real estate enterprises in the industry achieved a full caliber sales amount of 579.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 53%, an increase of 6 percentage points compared with the decline in February. In March, the top 100 real estate enterprises achieved a sales area of 36.37 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 57%, an increase of 15 percentage points compared with the decrease in February. In March, the sales of head real estate enterprises continued to decline. The sales amount of top5 / top6-10 / top11-20 in a single month decreased by 44% / 35% / 53% year-on-year, and the cumulative sales amount from January to March decreased by 41% / 42% / 51% year-on-year.
The popularity of local auction in Chongqing has increased significantly, while Wuhan is still relatively cold. 1) Chongqing: all 13 parcels of land were successfully traded. Three of them touched the upper limit of land price and entered the lottery. The gold received was close to 10 billion, with an average premium rate of 5.4%. The heat of bidding increased significantly compared with the second and third batches of last year. The land price for land supply was generally reduced, and the average land to house ratio was only 0.46. The transaction land price of most plots decreased by more than 10%, and the land acquisition cost of some plots even decreased by more than 30%. Compared with the second and third rounds of land acquisition last year, the proportion of local platforms in Chongqing’s centralized land auction decreased significantly. Only two of the 13 parcels of land were won by local state-owned enterprises, accounting for about 15%. In the second and third round of last year, the proportion of land taken by local platforms was more than 50%. 2) Wuhan: the scale of the first round of centralized land supply has been greatly reduced. There are only 7 residential land, with a land area of 27.5 hectares and a total construction area of 930000 square meters, less than 5% of the total construction area sold last year. Six of the seven homesteads involved in this round of centralized land auction were successfully transferred, of which only one was sold at a premium and touched the ceiling price + lottery transaction, with an overall premium rate of only 1%.
Local policies have been strengthened, and many places have made the first move. 1) Quzhou, Zhejiang: the first nationwide restriction on sale and purchase is cancelled, and non city registered residence residents can purchase houses, and new commercial housing with 144 square meters or more is not restricted. 2) Qinhuangdao, Hebei: the first city to completely abolish the purchase restriction policy for new and second-hand houses, and abolish the two documents of the opinions of Qinhuangdao Municipal People’s Government on strengthening the regulation of the real estate market and the notice of Qinhuangdao Municipal People’s Government on Further Strengthening the regulation of the real estate market. 3) Fuzhou, Fujian: the first city in China to relax purchase restrictions. You can buy an ordinary residence with an area of less than 144 square meters in Wucheng District of Fuzhou without providing social security or tax certificate.
The overall performance of the real estate sector is under pressure, and the property sector continues its high boom performance. Recently, companies have successively released performance reports for 2021, in which the property management service sector as a whole still shows the characteristics of high scenery. The net profit attributable to the parent of leading property enterprises such as country garden service, China Resources Vientiane life, Jinke service and Xuhui Yongsheng service increased by more than 50% year-on-year. The overall performance of the real estate sector is under pressure, among which the performance of China Construction Development International, China Jinmao, Longhu group and Greentown China is better.
Investment suggestion: we think we should pay attention to four main investment lines at present: 1) development enterprises: Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co.Ltd(000069) , China Resources Land, Longhu group, China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Xuhui holdings, China Construction Development International Holdings, Shenzhen New Nanshan Holding (Group) Co.Ltd(002314) , etc; 2) Property management enterprises: Country Garden service, China Resources Vientiane life, Jinke service, Xuhui Yongsheng service, etc; 3) Track transformation Enterprises: Tianjin Guangyu Development Co.Ltd(000537) , Lushang Health Industry Development Co.Ltd(600223) etc; 4) Real estate brokerage Enterprises: shells, etc.
Risk tips: project delivery risk, project sales collection risk, industry policy regulation risk.
