[Jufeng viewpoint]
On Thursday, A-Shares opened low and went low. The main board of Shanghai and Shenzhen fell more than 1% and the gem fell 2%. On the disk, fertilizer, cement, building materials, coal, wine and other industries rose against the market; Real estate, agriculture, animal husbandry, feeding and fishing, mining, wind power, Internet services, traditional Chinese medicine, optical optoelectronics, chemical pharmacy, automobile, communication, semiconductor, photovoltaic, food and beverage and other industries led the decline. In terms of subject stocks, low-carbon metallurgy and phosphorus chemical industry rose against the market; Electronic ID card, digital currency, chicken concept, pork concept, covid-19 drugs, rental and sale rights, assisted reproduction, mobile payment and Huawei shengteng fell by more than 3%.
[technical review]
The market has entered the third wave of rising market on the weekly line. Now, after the adjustment of the third wave of rising market, the market has formed a medium-term volatile market.
In the short term, the recent external turmoil, the market fell below the lower edge of the range of 34003700 points, and the short-term market fluctuated greatly.
[hot sector]
Fertilizer sector led the rise: Kunming Chuan Jin Nuo Chemical Co.Ltd(300505) rose by more than 10%, Asia-Potash International Investment (Guangzhou) Co.Ltd(000893) , St Chengxing, St Tianshou limit, Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) , Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co.Ltd(600470) , Tangshan Sunfar Silicon Industry Co.Ltd(603938) , Xinyangfeng Agricultural Technology Co.Ltd(000902) , etc. rose by more than 4%.
The strength of the cement cement sector sector is stronger than the stronger sector of the cement sector: Sichuan Golden Summit (Group) Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(600678) \ , Beijing Hanjian Heshan Pipeline Co.Ltd(603616) and others rose by more than 6%.
The coal sector rose: Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) rose by more than 7%, with Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture Co.Ltd(600123) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Yunnan Coal & Energy Co.Ltd(600792) , Henan Dayou Energy Co.Ltd(600403) , Shanxi Coking Co.Ltd(600740) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) .
[highlights inventory]
the national standing committee will deploy the timely use of monetary policy tools to more effectively support the development of the real economy
Premier Li Keqiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council on April 6 and decided to implement a phased policy of delaying the payment of old-age insurance premiums for industries in extreme poverty, and strengthen unemployment insurance support for job stabilization and training; Deploy and timely use monetary policy tools to more effectively support the development of the real economy.
central bank solicits opinions on the financial stability law (Draft for comments): establishment of financial stability guarantee fund
In order to implement the decision and deployment of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on preventing and resolving financial risks and improving the financial rule of law, and establish a long-term mechanism for maintaining financial stability, the people’s Bank of China, together with relevant departments, has studied and drafted the financial stability law of the people’s Republic of China (Draft for comments), which is now open to the public for comments.
fed meeting minutes release the signal of raising interest rate by 50 basis points again to support the monthly reduction of US $95 billion
According to the minutes of the meeting released by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday (April 6) local time, Fed officials discussed the plan on how to reduce the balance sheet at the meeting in March. Most Fed officials attending the meeting believed that it might be appropriate to reduce the asset ceiling of $95 billion per month, and said that it might be necessary to raise interest rates by 50 basis points once or more.
top ten brokerage strategies: rebound rather than reverse
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : the epidemic accident affected the pace of steady growth. The urgency of policy overweight in the second quarter increased significantly. It is expected that the steady growth policy will shift from full deployment to centralized development. A number of pessimistic expectations in the market bottomed out ahead of the fundamentals in advance. Since the second quarter, the negative impact of the economy on the market is weakening. It is suggested to grasp the trend of mid-term repair in the second and third quarters and firmly layout the “two low” varieties.
[fund trend]
According to the statistics of Dongcai, as of the closing, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed a net outflow of funds. On that day, the net outflow of funds from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 44.309 billion yuan, the net outflow of large orders was 20.969 billion yuan, the net outflow of large orders was 23.340 billion yuan, the net inflow of medium orders was 5.624 billion yuan, and the net inflow of small orders was 38.685 billion yuan.
[limit analysis]
Today, there were 51 daily limits and 32 daily limits;
Today, the number of trading boards in the two cities decreased compared with the previous trading day, and the number of trading boards increased compared with the previous trading day. Daily limit data showed that market sentiment fell today compared with the previous trading day Hithink Royalflush Information Network Co.Ltd(300033) data show that one belt, one road and other sectors in the two cities are mostly concentrated in the market, and the two cities are less heated and the money making effect is worse.
[viewpoint strategy]
In early trading, affected by the decline in the periphery, the three indexes opened lower collectively. After opening, cement, ships, Baijiu, military industry, banks and other sectors are stronger. The real estate sector ebbed after a continuous surge, and hot spots spilled out to cement, building materials, steel and other sectors. After 10 o’clock, the stock index weakened.
In the afternoon, the stock index continued to dip, with the decline of gem expanding to 2%, and the decline of Shanghai and Shenzhen main board exceeding 1%. Overall, financial and real estate callback, wind power, photovoltaic, semiconductor, lithium battery and other track sectors continued to be depressed, and the market style failed to be effectively switched. Large funds are still cautious and risk appetite is still low. However, under the environment of internal loosening and external tightening, the A-share market does not have the basis for unilateral decline.
Since late March, we have repeatedly stressed that “the current market is not sustainable. The Shanghai index has built a 3000 ~ 3300 point box, and the gem has built a 2450 ~ 2750 point box. We should dare to honor the sudden rise of individual stocks if they do not catch up with the high; for individual stocks that have fallen sharply but have not changed their fundamentals, we can buy low. Before the track stocks stop falling, even if the market rebounds, the upward space will not open.” At present, this judgment is still true. The hope of stopping the decline in the market is still on technology stocks and track stocks. Relying on defensive sectors such as banking, real estate, agriculture, coal and steel, the Shanghai stock index was pushed up, and the willingness of OTC funds to enter the market is low.
Overall, the main factors that suppress the sentiment of A-share investors have changed, from the situation in Ukraine and the Fed’s interest rate hike to the epidemic in China and the slowdown of economic growth. The steady expectation and steady growth policy will accelerate the construction of the market bottom. The deployment of the national standing committee to make timely use of monetary policy tools and the establishment of the financial stability guarantee fund by the central bank will provide strong support for a shares. It is suggested to focus on three main lines: first, companies with quarterly growth exceeding expectations; Second, new and old infrastructure benefiting from steady growth; Third, the aviation sector is facing the inflection point of the post epidemic situation and the airport sector. For some of the sectors that have risen sharply, the short-term can be cashed at high prices.
