Abstract
The net profit of 27 listed securities companies that have disclosed their annual reports increased by 32% year-on-year, and the two-year CAGR was 35%; The main business income of securities increased by 18% year-on-year; Roe increased by an average of 0.7pct to 9%. The trend of registration system reform, productization and institutionalization is strong.
Most securities companies contributed the main income increment by wealth management and large asset management, and the proportion of light capital income increased; The impairment accrued by 26 comprehensive securities companies in 21 years decreased by 52% year-on-year, driving the profit growth rate of about 7.8pct.
Light capital business: the proportion of commission sales revenue in brokerage business has increased, the Aum of public offering has increased, the contribution of public offering of excellent securities companies to the profits of the parent company of securities companies has increased, and the asset management channel of securities companies has come to an end, and AUM growth has ushered in an inflection point; The IPO scale of investment banks reached a new high, with CR3 exceeding 40%.
In 2021, the overall sales revenue of the industry increased by 54%, higher than the growth rate of transaction commission revenue (15%); The growth rate of net profit of fund companies and high-quality securities companies are high-quality public offering profits, which has made an important contribution to the profit growth of the parent company of securities companies; AUM of asset management of securities companies increased by 3% year-on-year, bottomed out, and the proportion of active management increased significantly; The size of the Investment Bank IPO market exceeded a record high of 600 billion, with CR3 43.4%, up 3PCT year-on-year.
Heavy capital business: the scale of financial assets expanded and the leverage ratio increased steadily; The scale of stock pledge continued to decline.
In 2021, the overall operating leverage of the industry was 3.13x, close to the high point in 2014 (3.14x). The average operating leverage of 26 comprehensive securities companies was 3.7x and the investment leverage was 2.1X (a year-on-year increase of 0.1X); OTC derivatives account for more than 14% of the roe of CICC and CITIC financial assets; In the past 21 years, the balance of securities companies’ stock pledge loans decreased by 24% year-on-year, and the average allocation ratio of stock pledge loans increased by 0.9pct to 10%.
1q22 forward looking: the trading heat, fund stock and IPO are still increasing, and the leading securities companies with low proportion of directional self operation are expected to grow positively.
1q22 non commodity based stock increased by 28% year-on-year, average daily stock turnover increased by 7% year-on-year, IPO scale increased by 61%, and OTC derivatives stock increased by more than 50% year-on-year. CITIC, CICC and Dongcai with small equity exposure are expected to achieve double-digit growth year-on-year.
First recommend Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) / Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) / China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) H / China stock market news, recommend Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) / Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) etc.
Risk tips: 1. The promotion of comprehensive registration system reform was less than expected, resulting in less than expected growth of investment banking business; 2. The market liquidity is lower than expected, resulting in the decline of trading volume; 3. The entry process of resident funds into the market was less than expected, affecting the performance growth of fund companies and the income growth of securities companies selling financial products on a commission basis.
