On April 6, according to the data released by the silicon industry branch of Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as "Silicon Industry Branch"), due to the relative shortage of silicon material supply, the price of polysilicon in China rose slightly this week, and the average transaction price rose by about 0.3%. Since this year, China's polysilicon price has risen for 12 consecutive weeks.
LV Jinbiao, deputy director of the expert committee of the non-ferrous metal silicon industry branch, said in an interview with the reporter of China Securities Journal that the continuous high price of silicon material in the first quarter was mainly due to the rapid expansion of photovoltaic downstream capacity, and the structural differences in polysilicon trading further boosted the rise of silicon material price.
price remains high
According to the latest statistics of the silicon industry branch, the price of polysilicon in China rose slightly this week (March 30 to April 5). Among them, the average transaction price of single crystal compound feeding, single crystal compact material and single crystal cauliflower material increased by about 0.3%. So far this year, China's polysilicon prices have risen for 12 consecutive weeks.
According to the data, the price range of China's single crystal re feeding this week was 249000 yuan / ton to 253000 yuan / ton, and the average transaction price rose to 250700 yuan / ton; The price range of single crystal compact is from 247000 yuan / ton to 251000 yuan / ton, and the average transaction price rises to 248400 yuan / ton.
The silicon industry branch said that the main reasons supporting the rise of silicon material price are: first, all silicon material enterprises sign long orders in April. This week, they mainly execute early orders. Only some enterprises have some surplus and loose orders, which slightly increases the average price of silicon material this week; Second, due to factors such as the operating rate of downstream silicon wafers, including existing capacity and new capacity, maintaining at a relatively high level, the maintenance of silicon material enterprises outside China in the same period and the obstruction of imported silicon material transportation due to the epidemic, the silicon material is still in a stage of relative shortage.
"In the first quarter of this year, China's silicon material output was 159000 tons, plus 22000 tons of imports, and the silicon material supply was 181000 tons, which was enough to support the demand for 70 gigawatts of photovoltaic module materials. Industry institutions had previously predicted that the global photovoltaic installation in the first quarter of this year would not exceed 50 gigawatts. From this point of view, the silicon material supply in the first quarter was sufficient." LV Jinbiao said.
However, the growth of downstream demand exceeded market expectations. On March 21, according to the data of the national energy administration, from January to February this year, the new installed capacity of photovoltaic in China reached 10.86 GW, a year-on-year increase of 234% Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) said that in the first quarter, China's and overseas photovoltaic demand exceeded market expectations, and the photovoltaic market demand in 2022 was highly uncertain.
"The rapid expansion of photovoltaic downstream capacity is the main reason for the continued high price of silicon materials, and the structural differences in polysilicon trading further boost the price rise of silicon materials." LV Jinbiao said, "polysilicon companies give priority to ensuring the performance of long orders and supply sporadic procurement only when there is surplus. At present, 90% of polysilicon transactions in the market are long order performance and 10% are retail supply. In the first quarter of this year, China's downstream head photovoltaic enterprises have locked in the monthly silicon supply, and small and medium-sized photovoltaic enterprises scrambled for 10% of retail supply, so the price naturally rose."
On the evening of March 21, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) issued an announcement on signing major procurement contracts. According to the company's strategic planning and business needs, in order to ensure the stable supply of polysilicon materials, eight subsidiaries of the company and four subsidiaries of Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) signed long-term single purchase agreements for polysilicon materials. According to the agreement, the transaction volume of polysilicon materials between the two sides from January 2022 to December 2023 is 203600 tons. Referring to the current price, the purchase contract amount exceeds 44 billion yuan.
Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) is a leading silicon material enterprise in China. According to its previous announcement, Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) has established manufacturing equity and supply chain cooperation with Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Jingke energy and other photovoltaic enterprises, and signed long-term supply chain orders with many companies.
Be wary of overcapacity
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) it is estimated that the pressure on the supply chain will be gradually relieved in the second quarter as the new capacity of silicon material reaches the production capacity and begins to contribute to the increment.
The silicon branch predicts that by the end of 2022, China's polysilicon production capacity will reach more than 860000 tons / year, an increase of 340000 tons / year over the previous year. The silicon supply in 2022 can meet the global installed capacity of about 225 GW of photovoltaic terminals. The industry's conservative and optimistic expectations on the global terminal installed capacity this year are 220 GW and 250 GW respectively. Therefore, in 2022, the overall supply and demand of silicon materials will be basically balanced.
However, in the long run, there is still a risk of oversupply in the supply of silicon materials. According to the statistics of the silicon industry branch, up to now, 16 new enterprises have announced new and proposed polysilicon projects, with a total planned capacity of more than 1.7 million tons / year. According to the silicon branch, the terminal demand in 2025 is optimistic, and it is estimated that 400 GW, the demand for silicon material is about 1.5 million tons / year, and the planned capacity is greater than the demand.
LV Jinbiao said that polysilicon has small elasticity coefficient of production capacity and high requirements for safety and environmental protection management. Once the supply exceeds the demand, it is very easy to have the extreme situation of inverted cost price for a long time, and then enter the vicious circle of insufficient capital investment and serious mismatch between supply and demand in the industry again, aggravating the disorderly competition in the market.
860000 T / A
The silicon branch predicts that by the end of 2022, China's polysilicon production capacity will reach more than 860000 tons / year, an increase of 340000 tons / year over the previous year.
