Under the market of sector rotation, the real estate sector finally ushered in the long-standing attention.
Catalysed by the recent favorable policies, the real estate index has risen by nearly 40% in the 14 trading days since last month. All stocks in the sector have risen without single listing. The share prices of many real estate enterprises have doubled, and the total market value has soared by 500 billion yuan. In the "dance" with positive stocks, there are also continuously rising real estate bonds, which have increased by more than 20% in a single day.
Some fund managers said frankly that they began to study the real estate sector in the second half of last year. Looking back on the annual report, the public funds also decisively increased their positions in individual real estate stocks in the third and fourth quarters of last year and at the time of the most pessimistic market. Lu Bin, manager of HSBC Jinxin fund, Tong LAN of Xingzheng global, Dong Li and Xie Zhiyu, as well as Zhao Bei of ICBC Credit Suisse, bought leading stocks China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , etc. Looking forward to the future, industry insiders believe that more than half of the highly leveraged enterprises will go through the process of deleveraging, and the scale of assets will continue to shrink. The market share set aside will be gradually undertaken by the best central enterprises, state-owned enterprises and private enterprises.
real estate sector market value soared by 500 billion
On April 6, the real estate industry bucked the trend, and individual stocks in the sector rose by the limit in a large area, Cccg Real Estate Corporation Limited(000736) 7 connected to the board. The real estate industry chain sector strengthened at the same time, and the steel, building materials and other sectors rose collectively. The rise of individual stocks also contributed to the rise of relevant ETFs. Taking Huabao CSI 800 real estate ETF as an example, the fund once rose by more than 4%, the turnover rate throughout the day exceeded 42.74%, and the trading continued to be active.
At the same time, real estate bonds rose sharply. "21 dragon control 03" rose by more than 24%, "15 Shimao 02" and "20 times 07" rose by more than 21%, "20 dragon control 01" rose by 20% and "20 times 09" rose by more than 19%.
The rebound in the real estate sector began on March 16. The special meeting of the financial stability and Development Commission of the State Council pointed out that for real estate enterprises, it is necessary to timely study and eliminate effective risk prevention and resolution solutions, and put forward supporting measures for the transformation to a new development model.
On the same day, the CBRC, the CSRC and the Ministry of finance all released policy warmth to support the stable development of real estate. The CBRC said that it actively promoted the transformation of the development mode of the real estate industry, encouraged institutions to carry out M & A loans in a stable and orderly manner, and focused on supporting high-quality real estate enterprises to merge and acquire high-quality projects of difficult real estate enterprises. The CSRC said that it actively cooperated with relevant departments to effectively resolve the risks of real estate enterprises. The Ministry of Finance said that it is not qualified to expand the pilot cities of real estate tax reform this year. The centralized statements of multiple ministries and commissions have greatly boosted the confidence of the industry and stabilized market expectations.
After that, the real estate sector started a strong trend. The real estate index rose nearly 40% in 14 trading days, with Tianjin Tianbao Infrastructure Co.Ltd(000965) leading the sector with an increase of 187%, and the share prices of Cccg Real Estate Corporation Limited(000736) , Cinda Real Estate Co.Ltd(600657) , Langold Real Estate Co.Ltd(002305) and China Wuyi Co.Ltd(000797) doubled. According to statistics, the market value of Listed Companies in the A-share real estate sector has soared by 500 billion yuan since March 15, with a total scale of 1.96 trillion yuan.
According to statistics, at present, the PE of CSI 800 real estate index is only about 7 times, and the Pb is only 1.09 times, which is 13.45% since 2013. Huabao Fund believes that the current valuation price performance of the sector is outstanding. In addition, gaogaohong, which is close to 5% in recent one year, also provides a high-quality safety cushion, and the sector is at a low allocation level in fund allocation, and policy guidance is gradually resolving industry risks.
Galaxy Securities believes that the real estate sector is currently in the combination of "fundamental bottom" + "policy bottom", and the first quarter of this year is the window period for the allocation of the real estate sector. In the medium and long term, the warmer policies in the real estate sector will gradually promote the improvement of valuation. Under the expectation of improving concentration and stabilizing profits, the "three good real estate enterprises" with excellent management, smooth financing and diversified development will enjoy a higher valuation premium. It is recommended to pay attention to high-quality leading stocks.
Shenyin Wanguo Securities said that real estate is a pillar industry of China's national economy, and the contribution of the industry itself and the industrial chain to GDP accounts for nearly 30%. Recently, officials have frequently stressed that stabilizing the economy and steady growth, while stabilizing the economy urgently needs to stabilize the real estate. It is expected that the policy restoration at both ends of supply and demand of the real estate industry is expected to accelerate, and will promote the optimization of the industry pattern and the further improvement of the concentration. High quality real estate enterprises are expected to usher in both quantity and quality.
public funds have ambushed leading companies in advance
According to the recently disclosed annual report of public funds, after the substantial reduction of the fund's holdings in the real estate industry in the second quarter of last year, the market value held in the middle of the year was 68.543 billion yuan, accounting for only 1.09% of the market value of stock investment. However, after the continuous increase of positions in the third and fourth quarters, the market value increased to 109844 billion yuan by the end of the year, with an increase of more than 60% in half a year.
After real estate stocks fell out of the "value pit", star fund managers also gradually allocated the sector. According to the annual report, Lu Bin, a fund manager of HSBC Jinxin, who is good at new energy investment, has increased his positions in real estate stocks since the second half of last year. Taking HSBC Jinxin dynamic strategy fund as an example, China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) has appeared in the list of the fund's top ten heavyweight stocks since the mid-term report of 2021, and has been added to the fund's top ten heavyweight stocks by the end of 2021 Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) ranks the fifth largest heavy position stock of the fund, accounting for about 3.57% of the net value of the fund.
The fund managers of Xingzheng Global Fund are the same as Lu Bin. After Dong Chengfei left office, Xingquan Trend Investment with a scale of nearly 30 billion, which is currently jointly managed by Tong LAN, Dong Li and Xie Zhiyu, bought 54 million shares of Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) in the fourth quarter of last year and currently holds 180 million shares. Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) also jumped to the top of the list from the fourth largest holding stock of the fund. The fund also bought 10833600 shares of China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) at the same time, ranking the tenth largest shareholder of the company by the end of last year.
In addition, China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) also attracted the generous increase in the return of Hongde foresight of ICBC Credit Suisse sports industry a and Wu Chuanyan under Yuan Fang, and the additional purchase of Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Li Yan of Huaxia Fund and he Shuai of BOCOM Schroeder in the fourth quarter.
Gu Qibin, a high-quality growth enterprise of Tianhong and fund manager of Tianhong cycle strategy, said that it has increased its research on the real estate sector since the second half of last year.
"At that time, the market was already at a pessimistic level for the pricing of real estate. The assumption contained in the valuation and pricing of many companies was that these companies could not continue to operate. Since the third quarter of last year, I have put a lot of efforts on the research and investment in real estate, because the poor expectation and cognition of the real estate industry are relatively large."
follow up cautiously
at the time of sharp rebound, investors should not be blindly optimistic. Gu Qibin believes that although the real estate sector has been repaired for some time, there are still many concerns hidden in the current valuation, and the expectation is not full.
Li Yan, a fund manager of Huaxia Xinghe, said in a live broadcast recently that the core of investing in the real estate industry is not that the government wants to stimulate the development of the real estate industry on a large scale, nor is it realistic. He judged that in the next ten years, the real estate sales area will drop from 1.6 ~ 1.7 billion square meters to about 1.1 billion square meters, with an average annual decline of 7%. In the next ten years, the average sales price of real estate will increase by about 3% from 10000 yuan / year last year. Based on the comprehensive volume and price, it can be basically considered that China's commercial housing market will maintain a compound annual decline of 3% ~ 4% in the next ten years.
Li Yan believes that 50% ~ 70% of highly leveraged enterprises may have to go through the process of deleveraging before. The asset scale should continue to shrink, and the market share set aside will be gradually undertaken by the best central enterprises, state-owned enterprises and private enterprises. "Therefore, what we invest in is the process of leading enterprises with a market share of 2.7 points to 10 points; it is also the process of steady and orderly exit of other high leverage enterprises in the past; the last investment is the stable policy on the demand side of the real estate industry expected by some investors."
Li Yan said that the real estate industry will face some problems in the next ten years, and Baijiu in the past ~2021 years from 2015, there are some analogies, namely, in terms of quantity and price. In this case, the total sector is slightly reduced, but there have been drastic structural changes, and the opportunities may be more prominent for investors
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