Today (April 7), the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened low across the board, and there was a pull-up performance at the beginning of the market. The Shanghai index and Shenzhen Composite Index turned red for a time, then dived back, showing a pulse downward pattern, and the gem index was particularly weak.
From the disk, the Chinese medicine and real estate sectors that have soared recently took the lead in smashing the market, and the general decline reappeared. Only shipbuilding, cement building materials, lithium extraction from Salt Lake, coal and other sectors showed relatively resistance to decline. In the military industry sector, Baota Industry Co.Ltd(000595) , Shenzhen New Nanshan Holding (Group) Co.Ltd(002314) , etc. rose by the limit, Tellhow Sci-Tech Co.Ltd(600590) , Asian Star Anchor Chain Co.Ltd.Jiangsu(601890) , etc.
Guosheng Securities pointed out that China’s economic data did not exceed expectations under the influence of adverse factors such as the epidemic, international tensions and the Fed’s interest rate increase and contraction. At the same time, limited by volume and energy, it is difficult for the market to form an upward force. The probability of reversing the market in the short term is low, and the shock consolidation market may run through the whole month.
At present, under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified sector rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports. Let’s see what themes are available for reference.
[theme 1] military industry
Capital securities mentioned that under the influence of market sentiment and other factors, the military industry sector experienced a sharp correction at the beginning of the year, and the logic of long-term boom expansion remained unchanged. The verification of advances received by downstream enterprises and the landing of large orders will be conducted in an orderly manner to the upstream and midstream along the industrial chain. During the “14th five year plan” period, the demand of supporting enterprises is highly deterministic, the performance of private leaders will be more flexible, and continue to be optimistic about the value of sector allocation under the current position.
Debang Securities said that entering the intensive disclosure period of annual report and first quarter report, the high growth of the industry has been verified. The military industry has good fundamentals and long-term certainty. However, due to the low transparency of the military industry, the market is relatively conservative about the growth rate and sustainability of performance. With the gradual disclosure of the annual performance report of 2021 and the first quarter report of 2022, the high performance growth of military enterprises is expected to be realized, and the prosperity of the industry will be further verified.
Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) pointed out that in 2022, the whole industrial chain will continue to focus on the profit-making dual growth logic brought by capacity release: focus on downstream main engine plants and subsystems with strong actual demand, deep ladder level of product models and arrival of batch production nodes; Supporting and manufacturing in the middle reaches with deep moat, strong comprehensive supporting capacity and obvious scale effect; High end weapon cornerstone, large industrial space, strong core competitiveness, and domestic replacement of accelerated military materials and military electronics, ship propulsion system and new ship equipment are the four major directions of military new technology under the new trend of development.
[Theme 2] lithium extraction from Salt Lake
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) said that in the current environment, battery enterprises are making positive progress towards downstream favorable prices. However, the price of raw materials rises rapidly and is mostly adjusted monthly. The pricing mode and voice of battery enterprises towards downstream will directly affect the timeliness of price transmission. We believe that leading companies can better absorb the pressure of upstream price rise in combination with low-cost long order inventory, technological progress and scale effect. At the same time, the advantageous bargaining power to the downstream will timely transmit the pressure of raw material price rise. Leading enterprises also smoothed price fluctuations through industrial chain layout and inventory, and further highlighted supply chain control and cost advantages. Recommended: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) .
From the perspective of supply and demand of the industrial chain, the supply of negative pole graphitization, diaphragm, copper foil and iron phosphate in the middle reaches of lithium battery in 2022 is relatively tight, and the lithium battery industry chain maintains a high momentum. Attention: beiteri, Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) , Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) .
The agency further analyzed that under the background of the continuous high price of lithium ore, the economy of lithium battery recovery is prominent. Lithium battery recycling helps to make up for the supply gap of upstream resources, especially lithium resources. Lithium battery recycling has broad market space and development prospects. Attention: Bangpu cycle ( Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) ), Miracle Automation Engineering Co.Ltd(002009) , Guangdong Fangyuan Environment Co.Ltd(688148) , Guangdong Guanghua Sci-Tech Co.Ltd(002741) , Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) , Gem Co.Ltd(002340) , Wangneng Environment Co.Ltd(002034) , Zhefu Holding Group Co.Ltd(002266) , etc.
As for the lithium battery industry, Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) pointed out three main lines: first, release of production capacity, relief of cost pressure and recovery of gross profit. Battery plants: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) etc; 2. Lithium resource companies with high lithium price supported by supply and demand and expected to realize excess profits: Keda Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600499) , Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , etc; Three mid stream material link companies that have clear patterns, clear advantages, and a clear, dominant, and still tight supply and demand: the mid stream material link companies that have a clear pattern, clear advantage, and obvious middle stream material link companies that have a clear pattern, clear advantage, and clear middle stream material link companies: the ‘ Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) \ , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , etc.
[Theme 3] cement building materials
Guosheng Securities said that in the short term, due to the impact of epidemic control, demand recovered, cement prices fluctuated, and inventory pressure increased; In the medium term, the stable growth of credit is expected to rise, the issuance speed of special bonds is expected to be further accelerated, and the rising momentum of infrastructure chain is expected to be strengthened. Under the structural wide credit, the cement demand is expected to start the stabilization and recovery cycle, which will support the cement price center in the medium term to be higher than that in the same period of previous years. At present, the relative valuations of sector price book ratio and P / E ratio are still at a historically low level, and the industry valuation is also expected to be repaired. Recommend Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) and Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) with strong performance certainty and bright spots in the extension of medium and long-term industrial chain. The medium and long-term recommendation is expected to benefit from the market integration in Northeast and North China and Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) with great business elasticity.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) mentioned that the demand side of the whole year is still resilient, 2022q1 or the low point of the industry. Since Q2, with the year-on-year weakening of the impact of coal price + the opening of price rise, the performance may improve quarter by quarter. In the medium and long term, cement has entered a period of downward demand. In the future, the industry will focus on the opportunities brought by the change of the industry’s supply side under the objectives of “dual control” and “dual carbon”: a) the policy requires that the proportion of benchmark capacity in 2025 will exceed 30%, and the industry’s capacity of 2500t / D and below is expected to withdraw one after another in the future, and the total capacity will shrink by more than 8.6%.
B) the cement industry is expected to be included in carbon trading in the future. The transformation of carbon tax + emission reduction will aggravate the cost pressure of small enterprises, highlight the leading competitive advantage, further expand through mergers and acquisitions, enhance the voice, and gradually raise the price center.
On the demand side, it is expected that the Q1 infrastructure side will have a good start in 2022, and the bottom of the real estate side will pick up. In the medium and long term, the cement industry as a whole may develop in the trend of “volume reduction and price increase”. After being included in carbon trading, it may accelerate the improvement of supply side concentration, and the improvement of leading share is expected to support performance growth. From the perspective of dividend yield and valuation, cement company has high investment cost performance.
[theme 4] coal
Shenyin Wanguo Securities mentioned that the global coal supply lacks elasticity and the supply and demand pattern is tight. At present, China’s coal production capacity has entered a contraction period, and the withdrawal of coal production capacity under “carbon neutralization” has accelerated. At the same time, the amendment to the new criminal law suppresses the overproduction of coal mines. Even if some nuclear increased production capacity is released, it is still difficult to change the supply tension in the medium-term 3-5 years; On the import side, the overall output of major international coal producers related to China has fallen sharply, and the import can not make up for the gap, and we are facing a shortage of global coal supply. China’s supply gap is expected to expand year by year from 2022 to 2025.
In addition, Cinda Securities said that in the next 2-3 months, as all parts of the South enter the peak summer stage, coal supply will still face great pressure. At this stage, the industry fundamentals, the underlying logic of the policy and the direct effect are favorable for the repair and improvement of the valuation of the sector. Considering the certainty of the high growth of performance in the first half of this year, it is the best stage for bargain hunting to allocate the coal sector.
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities believes that under the premise of steady economic growth, coal consumption is expected to maintain a certain positive growth. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, coal consumption can still maintain positive growth. During the 15th Five Year Plan period, with the development of clean and efficient utilization technology of coal, China’s coal has natural price advantages in traditional fossil energy (coal, oil and natural gas), which is expected to be more applied in coal power and non power fields. On the premise of steady economic growth in China, coal consumption is expected to maintain a certain positive growth. Invest in coal stocks and enjoy the dividends gradually realized by the cost advantage of coal. Policy regulation will cause the repetition of the investment process, but the long-term direction is clear.
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) pointed out that recently, coal enterprises have successively published their annual reports for 2021, and the trend of high score, red and high dividend is obvious. The coal industry is expected to have high medium and long-term prices without large capital expenditure, and the continuous high return to investors will be a major feature of the industry. Overall, the stock capacity is a scarce resource. Coal stocks are generally valued at 4-6 times, and the stability of price and profit expectations is improved. It is suggested to actively layout coal stocks in 2022.
