Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
Guosheng Securities: focus on the marginal change of demand and the catalysis of macro policies recommend cement and consumer building materials
At present, the overall demand is still weak. Under the pressure of steady economic growth, the policy space is expected to be further strengthened. It is expected that the development of infrastructure investment is still an important starting point. The follow-up policy support is expected to be intensively introduced. Recently, the national standing committee also continued to express the signal of steady growth and required to release the special debt quota as soon as possible. At the same time, in the case of great pressure shown by real estate data, Zhengzhou, Fuzhou, Quzhou and other places have relaxed policies on real estate purchase and loan restrictions since March. Under the expectation of stable real estate, the marginal relaxation of policies can still be expected. It is suggested to pay attention to the change of demand margin and the catalysis of macro policies, and recommend cement sector and consumer building materials sector.
For the cement sector: the short-term epidemic affects the demand performance, and the expectations of wide credit and stable growth continue to increase, which is expected to benefit. In the short term, due to the impact of epidemic control on the recovery of demand, the cement price fluctuated, and the inventory pressure increased; In the medium term, the stable growth of credit is expected to rise, the issuance speed of special bonds is expected to be further accelerated, and the rising momentum of infrastructure chain is expected to be strengthened. Under the structural wide credit, the cement demand is expected to start the stabilization and recovery cycle, which will support the cement price center in the medium term to be higher than that in the same period of previous years. At present, the relative valuations of sector price book ratio and P / E ratio are still at a historically low level, and the industry valuation is also expected to be repaired. Recommend Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) and Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) with strong performance certainty and bright spots in the extension of medium and long-term industrial chain. The medium and long-term recommendation is expected to benefit from the market integration in Northeast and North China and Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) with great business elasticity.
For the glass sector: the price has dropped, and the subsequent demand and downstream orders still need to be observed. At present, the demand for glass has been affected by factors such as the real estate capital chain and the epidemic, and the recovery is slow, and the price has fallen. The subsequent price performance needs to be promoted by the factors of terminal demand or supply side. Medium and long-term environmental protection will reshape the industry cost curve. The increase in the fuel cost of the original coal-fired production line in the north from coal to gas is good for the price center of the southern market. Resources are the main source of long-term excess profits, and large enterprises and high-quality production capacity benefit. Recommend Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) (deep processing, electronics, medicine, photovoltaic glass and other industrial chain extension is quite bright, with high dividend rate), Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) (photovoltaic glass expands vigorously, electronic glass ushers in a breakthrough), and pay attention to Shandong Jinjing Science And Technology Stock Co.Ltd(600586) .
In terms of consumer building materials, from the performance of the sales and land acquisition data of the top 100 real estate enterprises, the demand pressure on the short-term real estate side is still large. Some cities have begun to introduce policies to relax loan and purchase restrictions, relax the policy margin, and pay attention to the valuation and repair opportunities of the sector; From the perspective of fundamentals, in the first half of the year, it is expected that the pressure on the demand side will still be reflected. On the profit side, the high pressure on the upstream raw material price is still there, which still tests the profitability, but the price transmission and product structure adjustment are expected to hedge some of the impact; At the valuation level, most consumer building materials targets are already in the lower limit of the historical valuation range, and the valuation repair needs to continuously track the marginal changes of policies; It is suggested to pay attention to: 1) the leaders of engineering building materials with growth, especially the companies that have established the small b customer development and multi category sales system of sinking market. Core recommendations Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) ; It is also recommended to pay attention to the subdivided leading enterprises with strong growth flexibility and whose valuation has been at the lower limit of the historical range, and recommend Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) , Jiangsu Canlon Building Materials Co.Ltd(300715) ; It is recommended that Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) .
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) : it is suggested to focus on investment opportunities in the construction sector from three directions
We suggest paying attention to the investment opportunities in the construction sector from the following three directions: (1) the prosperity of the infrastructure municipal chain and the improvement of valuation under the continuous force of steady growth: we are optimistic about the continuous repair opportunities for the valuation of leading infrastructure enterprises with historically low valuation and stable performance, and pay attention to China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) , China Railway Group Limited(601390) , China Railway Construction Corporation Limited(601186) , Jsti Group(300284) , China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) (CNOOC asset valuation repair), etc.
(2) there are bright spots in the demand structure and investment opportunities under the incremental development of new business: with the promotion of policies such as double carbon strategy and green and energy-saving buildings, the prosperity of infrastructure segments related to prefabricated buildings, energy conservation and carbon reduction and new energy is high, and enterprises with relevant transformation layout are expected to benefit. Last week, the 14th five year plan for building energy efficiency and green building development was issued, which proposed to promote building photovoltaic, prefabricated construction and decoration. It is suggested to pay attention to Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) , Shenzhen Capol International&Associatesco.Ltd(002949) , Zhejiang Yasha Decoration Co.Ltd(002375) , China Railway Prefabricated Construction Co.Ltd(300374) ; Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) , China Energy Engineering Corporation Limited(601868) , etc. of new energy business transformation and incremental development; Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building(Group)Co.Ltd(600496) , Center International Group Co.Ltd(603098) , Zhejiang Southeast Space Frame Co.Ltd(002135) and others benefiting from the large volume of building photovoltaic market, and Jiangxi Geto New Materials Corporation Limited(300986) and other leasing service providers of green building materials (aluminum formwork).
(3) reform direction of state-owned enterprises: 2022 is the end of the three-year action of state-owned enterprise reform. It is expected that while the reform of state-owned enterprises is advancing steadily, the previous reform dividends in corporate governance structure, strengthening incentives, mixed reform and improving efficiency and stimulating vitality are expected to enter the release period. It is suggested to pay attention to the improvement of performance under cost reduction and efficiency increase, the transformation layout of new businesses and asset reorganization, and pay attention to Sichuan Road & Bridge Co.Ltd(600039) , Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) Shandong Hi-Speed Road&Bridge Co.Ltd(000498) , Metallurgical Corporation Of China Ltd(601618) etc.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) : follow up rush and superposition of cement peak season it is suggested to layout the periodic cement market
The improvement of local real estate policies will be gradually transmitted to the level of building materials. The fundamentals of consumer building materials are clear at the bottom. It is a leader with good past operation data and excellent management. It is highly anti cyclical and has cost-effective valuation. It continues to be recommended; At the same time, the follow-up rush work superimposes the cement peak season, and it is suggested to layout the phased market of cement.
We continue to focus on the following recommendations: ① [ Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) ] (it is estimated that pe17.6x in 2022) the integrated company has achieved remarkable results through investment and plant construction and tax sinking, driving the growth of non real estate business and continuously increasing the market share of the main waterproof industry; The coating business is advancing rapidly. ② [ Dehua Tb New Decoration Material Co.Ltd(002043) ] (pe10.1x is expected in 2022) the sector business maintains a high growth; With the sinking of channels and improvement of management, the medium and long-term performance is expected to grow steadily, contributing to the improvement of valuation.
③ [ Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) ] (expected to be pe20.3x in 2022) realize category expansion and drive the growth of customers with the help of direct channels; The integration advantage is obvious, the rate continues to decline, and the net interest rate is expected to increase. ④ [ Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) ] (it is estimated that pe18.2x in 2022) the price increase plus concentric circle is vigorously promoted, and retail sales are expected to continue to grow rapidly this year; The market share of pipeline continues to increase, and the star housekeeper empowers concentric circles. ⑤ [ Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) ] (expected pe7.6x in 2022) capacity release superimposed channel expansion, driving revenue growth; The distribution proportion of “cash and spot” is relatively high, and the cash flow is good.
From the perspective of dividend rate! Cement company has high investment cost performance
We judge that the demand side of the whole year is still resilient. It is 22q1 or the low point of the industry. From Q2, with the year-on-year weakening of the impact of coal price + the opening of price rise, the performance may improve quarter by quarter. In the medium and long term, cement has entered a period of downward demand. In the future, the industry will focus on the opportunities brought by the change of industry supply side under the objectives of “double control” and “double carbon”:
A) according to the policy, the proportion of benchmark capacity will exceed 30% in 2025. In the future, the industry’s capacity of 2500t / D and below is expected to withdraw one after another, and the total capacity will shrink by more than 8.6%.
B) the cement industry is expected to be included in carbon trading in the future. The transformation of carbon tax + emission reduction will aggravate the cost pressure of small enterprises, highlight the leading competitive advantage, further expand through mergers and acquisitions, enhance the voice, and gradually raise the price center. On the demand side, it is expected that the Q1 infrastructure side will have a good start in 2022, and the bottom of the real estate side will pick up. In the medium and long term, the cement industry as a whole may develop in the trend of “volume reduction and price increase”. After being included in carbon trading, it may accelerate the improvement of supply side concentration, and the improvement of leading share is expected to support performance growth. From the perspective of dividend yield and valuation, cement company has high investment cost performance.
In terms of investment suggestions, it is recommended to recommend [ Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) ], [ Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) ], leading [ Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) ], and pay attention to Jiangxi leading [ Jiangxi Wannianqing Cement Co.Ltd(000789) ] and northwest leading [ Gansu Qilianshan Cement Group Co.Ltd(600720) ], which are expected to benefit from infrastructure development.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) : it is suggested to pay attention to investment opportunities in steel and construction industries
It is suggested to pay attention to investment opportunities in steel and construction industries. In terms of architecture, 1) BIPV industrial chain: recommend roof leader Center International Group Co.Ltd(603098) , steel structure engineering leader Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building(Group)Co.Ltd(600496) , suggest paying attention to Zhejiang Southeast Space Frame Co.Ltd(002135) , facade leader Jangho Group Co.Ltd(601886) (its photovoltaic roof is also actively arranged), and recommend paying attention to China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) Xingye; 2) Real estate chain: the sub industries related to real estate whose valuations fell sharply in the past are expected to receive more than expected valuation repair with moderate easing, such as Suzhou Gold Mantis Construction Decoration Co.Ltd(002081) , Zhejiang Yasha Decoration Co.Ltd(002375) , etc; 3) Grass seed industry: recommend Inner Mongolia M-Grass Ecology And Environment (Group) Co.Ltd(300355) , whose accumulation in grassland carbon sink, grass seeds and Chinese herbal medicine seeds is gradually being valued by the market.
In terms of iron and steel, 1) there is good price elasticity, so Nanjing Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600282) ; 2) Electrical steel: recommend Beijing Shougang Co.Ltd(000959) , Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , and pay attention to Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel Co.Ltd(000825) , Maanshan Iron & Steel Company Limited(600808) .
Changjiang Securities Company Limited(000783) : the main line of steady growth remains unchanged! The future steel boom is still expected to have an elastic window
The main line of steady growth remains unchanged, pay attention to the boom window and grasp it. In the medium term, the main line of steady growth remains unchanged, and the subsequent stronger policy stimulus expectations can still be expected. Although the effects of government investment, tax reduction and fee reduction and real estate easing can not be achieved overnight, they will eventually appear. Therefore, the steel boom is still expected to have a flexible window in the future. It is suggested to pay attention to Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) , Nanjing Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600282) , Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel Co.Ltd(000825) , Xinyu Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600782) , Fangda Special Steel Technology Co.Ltd(600507) and other undervalued or high dividend targets in advance, which is in line with the current defensive market style. In addition, attention should be paid to: first, superalloy Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) and so on; Second, the targets in the processing field, such as: 1) aluminum processing Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) ; 2) Stainless steel processing Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co.Ltd(002318) , Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) ; Third, the leader in the field of special steel, Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co.Ltd(000708) etc; Fourth, steel pipes under the municipal pipeline investment line.
Huachuang Securities: pay attention to the expected repair opportunities of the real estate chain! Continue to recommend the target of infrastructure chain
Cement sector: focus on Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Guangdong Tapai Group Co.Ltd(002233) , and pay attention to Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co.Ltd(000877) , Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) .
Glass sector: the completion in 2022 is expected to show a pattern of weak in the first half of the year and strong in the second half of the year. The growth inflection point probably appears at the end of 2022q2, driving the recovery of glass demand and the reduction trend of the supply side of the industry. It is expected that the peak of cold repair will come in 2022q1, with both supply and demand vibrating. Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) .
Glass fiber sector: medium and long-term planning of wind power to improve the demand expectation of glass fiber materials, with emphasis on China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) .
Consumer building materials sector: the start-up end is expected to improve synchronously with sales, and the cost is expected to improve marginally, and the prosperity of consumer building materials at the start-up end is expected to be ahead;
Key recommendations for gypsum board Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) ; Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , are recommended in the waterproof industry. The pipe industry focuses on Yonggao Co.Ltd(002641) .
Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) : preferred infrastructure chain! Optimistic about steel structure and waterproof faucet
2022q1 infrastructure industry chain, steel structure and waterproof leaders perform well and are optimistic about the profit toughness of the leaders. We expect: 1) the construction 22q1 infrastructure industry chain and steel structure companies have a high increase in the net profit attributable to the parent company, benefiting from the boom / profit margin recovery of the front-end design of infrastructure and affordable housing and the high boom of photovoltaic buildings under steady growth. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be about + 20% year-on-year, and the central construction enterprises also have a good performance; 2) The performance of building materials 22q1 glass fiber is stronger than that of glass and consumer building materials, but the rise in energy costs and the decline in electronic yarn prices drag down the year-on-year growth. The profits of glass and consumer building materials are affected by the decline in demand and the rise in energy / raw material prices, with a year-on-year or significant decline. However, the waterproof leader and C-end of consumer building materials have strong anti risk ability, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is about + 20% year-on-year, and the water reducer may perform well under the steady growth. It is suggested to select the leader with strong marginal improvement / anti risk ability, and recommend A-Shares of construction and building materials China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) / China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) / Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) .
