The minutes of the meeting released by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday (April 6) local time showed that Fed officials discussed the plan of how to reduce the balance sheet at the meeting in March. Most Fed officials attending the meeting believed that it might be appropriate to reduce the asset ceiling of $95 billion per month, and said that it might be necessary to raise interest rates by 50 basis points once or more.
Affected by the strong expectation of interest rate hike in the United States, European and American stock markets generally opened low overnight. The NASDAQ index fell by 2.22%, and major indexes such as DAX in Europe, Germany and CAC in France also fell by about 2%. This morning, Japan’s stock market, which took the lead in opening in Asia, also opened low. As of noon local time, the Nikkei 225 index also fell by 2%, and major markets such as South Korea and Hong Kong also fell.
In China, Premier Li Keqiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council yesterday and decided to implement a phased policy of delaying the payment of old-age insurance premiums for industries in extreme poverty, and increase unemployment insurance support for job stabilization and training; Deploy and timely use monetary policy tools to more effectively support the development of the real economy Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) judging from the subsequent MLF, there is still room for 15-25 basis points of reduction, and the policy interest rate and loan market quoted interest rate (LPR) may drop. The frequency of subsequent RRR reduction is about 1-2 times, with a cumulative range of up to 100 basis points.
Under the influence of different internal and external expectations, A-Shares fluctuated sharply and opened slightly lower at the beginning of the opening day this morning. However, there was a rapid rebound in the session, and the main stock indexes turned red, but then gradually declined. More than 4000 stocks fell and more than 600 stocks rose. The performance of Kechuang 50 index was weak, down more than 1%, reaching a new low in recent two years. On the sector, hot spots are scattered, coal, chemical fiber, Baijiu, cement and other sectors are relatively active, pork, seed industry, digital money, COVID-19 medicine concept sector and other major callbacks. The net outflow of funds from Beishang was 1.361 billion yuan.
real estate stocks reappear differences
With the space and space interwinterwoven, the real estate sector experienced strong divergence in the early morning morning session in the real estate sector, with strong divergence in the early morning. On one side, the Shenzhen New Nanshan Holding (Group) Co.Ltd(002314) multistock limit.
In terms of industry news, the deregulation of the property market adds another city. Recently, Lanzhou municipal government issued several measures for Lanzhou to implement the strategy of strengthening the provincial council and further optimize the business environment (No. 1) (hereinafter referred to as the measures). Specifically, the measures have made new arrangements in reducing the threshold for individuals to buy housing, canceling “recognizing houses and recognizing loans”, implementing “recognizing loans but not recognizing houses”, upgrading provident fund and purchase restriction policies, and supporting a virtuous circle of enterprises. According to incomplete statistics of Zhuge housing search data research center, up to now, more than 65 cities across the country have issued property market deregulation policies.
In addition, recently, many real estate enterprises released their annual reports for 2021, and the overall data was not as bad as the market expected. Superimposed with the sharp decline of real estate stocks in the early stage, this has become an important basis for the repeated strength of the real estate sector in the near future.
However, it should be noted that the basic logic of “housing without speculation” will not change, and the fundamentals of heavy overall debt of real estate enterprises have not been fundamentally changed.
Since the beginning of this year, real estate sales have continued to decline further. According to the latest sales data of real estate enterprises in March, affected by the epidemic and lack of confidence in the industry, the top 100 real estate enterprises only achieved a sales amount of 511.54 billion yuan in a single month, a year-on-year decrease of 52.7%, an increase of 5.5 percentage points compared with the decline in February. In terms of cumulative performance, the first quarter had a dismal start. The cumulative performance of more than 80% of the top 100 real estate enterprises decreased year-on-year, of which nearly 40% of the enterprises decreased by more than 50%. In this context, the continuity of the real estate stock market needs to be verified.
Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) said that although the supply and demand side policies have been adjusted continuously since this year, the prosperity of the real estate market is still low, and there is no obvious sign of warming in new house transactions. We suggest paying attention to four main lines: 1) leading real estate enterprises with low credit risk, smooth financing channels and high security. 2) Regional central state-owned enterprises or regional leading private enterprises with high financial report security and relatively stable cash flow. 3) Under the influence of macro and industrial policies such as interest rate reduction, elastic real estate enterprises with large marginal income. 4) At present, the real estate post cycle property sector with strong income determination, accelerated concentration, recent credit risk mitigation of related real estate enterprises and elastic reversal.
cement and infrastructure sectors strengthened against the trend
The cement sector bucked the trend and strengthened in the early trading, and the cement sector index rose by more than 4% at one time. However, although the market weakened and corrected later, it still rose by 1.42% as of the noon closing After Ningbo Fuda Company Limited(600724) opened, the stock price reached a new high in more than two years, and Guangdong Sanhe Pile Co.Ltd(003037) , Yunnan Bowin Technology Industry Co.Ltd(600883) etc. also rose.
At present, the overall inventory of the cement sector is low. Recently, some large cement factories have generally raised the ex factory cement price. According to statistics, the average price of cement in the national market last week was 512 yuan / ton, up 3.2 yuan / ton month on month. Beijing, Gansu, Shaanxi and other regions increased significantly, with a range of 20-50 yuan / ton.
In the “14th five year plan” for the development of raw material industry, it is proposed that the production capacity of bulk products of key raw materials such as cement will only be reduced but not increased Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) believes that the cement supply will shrink, but driven by the demand for infrastructure, the cement price has a strong trend, and is optimistic about the market of the cement sector in the first half of the year.
Capital construction stocks also rose in the morning, with the construction research and design once trading at a 20% limit, Xinjiang Guotong Pipeline Co.Ltd(002205) , Shenzhen Strongteam Decoration Engineering Co.Ltd(002989) , Xinjiang Beixin Road & Bridge Group Co.Ltd(002307) , etc. Materials ETF, CSI Yangtze River Delta leading ETF, urban investment Bond ETF and other related funds also led the increase.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) said that in the first quarter of 2022, or the low point of the industry, from the second quarter, with the year-on-year weakening of the impact of coal price + the opening of price rise, the performance may improve quarter by quarter. In the medium and long term, cement has entered a period of downward demand. In the future, the industry will focus on the opportunities brought by the change of industry supply side under the objectives of “double control” and “double carbon”
