Since the beginning of the year, A-Shares have been significantly adjusted. How to understand the current market? How to deal with it next? It has attracted the attention of investors. Cheng Tao, general manager of Xiangcai fund, Xiangcai Changshun and Xiangcai Changyuan fund managers, said that after the market fell, there were more and more high-quality stocks with high risk return ratio. At the current time point, the rebound market may be imminent, and the market winners will certainly belong to the optimists. Investors should look at short-term fluctuations from a long-term perspective and bargain hunting the layout of high winning stock assets.
a large number of stocks fell out of price performance
Over the past few months, the market has experienced significant adjustments. In Cheng Tao's view, there are mainly internal and external reasons: from the perspective of external factors, the Federal Reserve opened a cycle of interest rate hike in the face of an all-time high inflation rate, which triggered the outflow of global funds from emerging markets such as a shares, and China concept stocks also suffered a rare sharp decline; The conflict between Russia and Ukraine further triggered the global energy game and further promoted the process of de globalization; From the perspective of internal factors, economic development faces multiple pressures such as shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectations. Investors have different views on the disclosed economic data. The repeated outbreak of the epidemic has greatly disturbed the normal economic order. At the same time, the persistence of global inflation has also compressed the profits of a large number of enterprises.
Under the influence of domestic and foreign difficulties, the market has fallen since the beginning of the year. After the market adjustment, Cheng Tao believes that in terms of the current market state, the above negative factors have been fully reflected in the stock price and it is difficult to further ferment. For a long time, these negative effects are short-term and temporary after all. For example, the interest rate hike of the Federal Reserve will gradually slow down, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will come to an end, the liquidity impact will always end, inflation will gradually fall, and the prevention and control of the epidemic will usher in the dawn.
Cheng Tao said that Xiangcai fund is finding more and more high-quality stocks with high risk return ratio. For example, under the external impact, the adjusted high-quality growth stocks in semiconductor, computer, photovoltaic, wind power, new energy and other sectors have a relatively cheap share price and high configuration value compared with the listed companies behind them. The value stocks in banking, insurance, real estate and other industries are in a significantly undervalued price range, and it will be a high probability event to usher in the mean return. In addition, there are high winning investment opportunities in pharmaceutical and biological, resource products, military industry and consumer industries deeply adjusted by the recurrence of the epidemic.
"At present, it has been at a relatively low level for nearly three years, and a large number of stocks have fallen out of cost performance. At present and in the future, the market winners will belong to optimists." To a certain extent.
rebound or trigger
Cheng Tao said that the stock market has its own operation law. It goes round and round with the return of the mean value. If it rises more, it will fall, and if it falls more, it will rise. The listed company behind each stock has its fair internal value. Affected by capital liquidity, investor sentiment and other factors, the stock price will fluctuate around its fair value. "Risks are rising and opportunities are falling. Investors sometimes have to make anti human investment decisions, such as firm holding and even bargain hunting in case of market panic, which also requires them to have a clear and clear understanding of the current state and future trend of the market."
In Cheng Tao's view, with the passage of time, more expectations of good economic fundamentals can be fulfilled, such as social finance, M1's continuous recovery and structural improvement, the slowdown of PPI decline and the recovery of profit growth of industrial enterprises. These factors are expected to completely reverse the temporarily low market sentiment. "The market will eventually usher in a bottom rebound. Although it is difficult to assert the rebound opportunity, the index is basically in the bottom area, and the rebound market may be imminent."
At present, it is the financial reporting season of intensive disclosure. Undervalued value stocks and growth stocks that have been "wrongly killed" may usher in a sharp rebound at any time, which officially opens the upward channel for the stabilization and recovery of a shares. At present, it is a rare opportunity for bargain hunting and layout of high winning stocks.
From the performance of Xiangcai fund, the Xiangcai Changshun hybrid launched fund established on March 28, 2019 is the company's first product and the company's "flagship product". As of March 27 this year, the yield for the whole three years was as high as 117.86%. According to the latest ranking data of Morningstar China, as of March 31, 2022, the yield of Xiangcai Changshun in recent one year was 19.07%, ranking among the top 10 of similar funds (96 / 1107); The yield in the past two years was 77.58%, ranking among the top 15% (134 / 933) of similar funds; The yield in recent three years was 118.64%, ranking among the top 15% (119 / 840) of similar funds.
