Today (April 7), the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indexes showed a shock adjustment pattern as a whole. The three major indexes opened low in the morning, quickly fell into adjustment after a sharp pull at the beginning of the session, fell further in the afternoon, maintained weak adjustment throughout the day, and finally closed negative in the three major stock indexes.
In this regard, Guosheng Securities pointed out that China's economic data did not exceed expectations under the influence of adverse factors such as the epidemic, international tensions and the Fed's interest rate increase and contraction. At the same time, limited by volume and energy, it is difficult for the market to form an upward force. The probability of reversing the market in the short term is low, and the shock consolidation market may run through the whole month.
At the same time, Xiangcai Securities believes that the second quarter of A-Shares is a time window for adjusting the position structure. Some A-share sectors have been fully adjusted and have entered the relatively undervalued area, and the valuation of some sectors is still not cheap after adjustment. At the current time point, there are three investment opportunities with high certainty in the second quarter and the whole year. 1) Investment in infrastructure sector with steady growth; 2) Pig breeding sector with pig cycle restarted in the second half of the year; 3) The banking sector with historically low valuations.
sector:
I. cement building materials
Guosheng Securities said that in the short term, due to the impact of epidemic control, demand recovered, cement prices fluctuated, and inventory pressure increased; In the medium term, the stable growth of credit is expected to rise, the issuance speed of special bonds is expected to be further accelerated, and the rising momentum of infrastructure chain is expected to be strengthened. Under the structural wide credit, the cement demand is expected to start the stabilization and recovery cycle, which will support the cement price center in the medium term to be higher than that in the same period of previous years. At present, the relative valuations of sector price book ratio and P / E ratio are still at a historically low level, and the industry valuation is also expected to be repaired. Recommend Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) and Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) with strong performance certainty and bright spots in the extension of medium and long-term industrial chain. The medium and long-term recommendation is expected to benefit from the market integration in Northeast and North China and Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) with great business elasticity.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) mentioned that the demand side of the whole year is still resilient, 2022q1 or the low point of the industry. Since Q2, with the year-on-year weakening of the impact of coal price + the opening of price rise, the performance may improve quarter by quarter. In the medium and long term, cement has entered a period of downward demand. In the future, the industry will focus on the opportunities brought by the change of the industry's supply side under the objectives of "dual control" and "dual carbon": a) the policy requires that the proportion of benchmark capacity in 2025 will exceed 30%, and the industry's capacity of 2500t / D and below is expected to withdraw one after another in the future, and the total capacity will shrink by more than 8.6%.
B) the cement industry is expected to be included in carbon trading in the future. The transformation of carbon tax + emission reduction will aggravate the cost pressure of small enterprises, highlight the leading competitive advantage, further expand through mergers and acquisitions, enhance the voice, and gradually raise the price center. On the demand side, it is expected that the Q1 infrastructure side will have a good start in 2022, and the bottom of the real estate side will pick up. In the medium and long term, the cement industry as a whole may develop in the trend of "volume reduction and price increase". After being included in carbon trading, it may accelerate the improvement of supply side concentration, and the improvement of leading share is expected to support performance growth. From the perspective of dividend yield and valuation, cement company has high investment cost performance.
II. Coal
Shenyin Wanguo Securities mentioned that the global coal supply lacks elasticity and the supply and demand pattern is tight. At present, China's coal production capacity has entered a contraction period, and the withdrawal of coal production capacity under "carbon neutralization" has accelerated. At the same time, the amendment to the new criminal law suppresses the overproduction of coal mines. Even if some nuclear increased production capacity is released, it is still difficult to change the supply tension in the medium-term 3-5 years; On the import side, the overall output of major international coal producers related to China has fallen sharply, and the import can not make up for the gap, and we are facing a shortage of global coal supply. China's supply gap is expected to expand year by year from 2022 to 2025.
In addition, Cinda Securities said that in the next 2-3 months, as all parts of the South enter the peak summer stage, coal supply will still face great pressure. At this stage, the industry fundamentals, the underlying logic of the policy and the direct effect are favorable for the repair and improvement of the valuation of the sector. Considering the certainty of the high growth of performance in the first half of this year, it is the best stage for bargain hunting to allocate the coal sector.
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities believes that under the premise of steady economic growth, coal consumption is expected to maintain a certain positive growth. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, coal consumption can still maintain positive growth. During the 15th Five Year Plan period, with the development of clean and efficient utilization technology of coal, China's coal has natural price advantages in traditional fossil energy (coal, oil and natural gas), which is expected to be more applied in coal power and non power fields. On the premise of steady economic growth in China, coal consumption is expected to maintain a certain positive growth. Invest in coal stocks and enjoy the dividends gradually realized by the cost advantage of coal. Policy regulation will cause the repetition of the investment process, but the long-term direction is clear.
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) pointed out that recently, coal enterprises have successively published their annual reports for 2021, and the trend of high score, red and high dividend is obvious. The coal industry is expected to have high medium and long-term prices without large capital expenditure, and the continuous high return to investors will be a major feature of the industry. Overall, the stock capacity is a scarce resource. Coal stocks are generally valued at 4-6 times, and the stability of price and profit expectations is improved. It is suggested to actively layout coal stocks in 2022.
one drawing summary:
