Recently, many cities have relaxed the house purchase policy, and more than 60 cities released hundreds of real estate regulation policies in the first quarter of this year. On the whole, the policy deregulation has been strengthened and accelerated.
Under the policy warm wind, the market is full of loose expectations, and the real estate stocks and bonds soared. From March 15 to April 1, the real estate sector rose by 29.1%, leading the rise of a shares; Hong Kong stocks and real estate sector also performed well, rebounding nearly 20%, and real estate bonds also strengthened as a whole.
In March, the fundamentals of the real estate industry continued to bottom out, facing the dual pressure of continuous weakening of the sales side and risk fermentation of the credit side. At the same time, the heat of the land market decreased.
However, a number of securities companies believe that looking back on the three periods of history similar to the current period, the real estate sector still has the power of action under this round of easing period, and the inflection point of the industry will eventually come.
real estate stocks and bonds soared
On Wednesday, April 6, the first trading day after the Tomb Sweeping Day holiday, A-share real estate saw another rise in the limit, Bright Real Estate Group Co.Limited(600708) , China Enterprise Company Limited(600675) , Nanjing Chixia Development Co.Ltd(600533) , Beih-Property Co.Ltd(600791) , China Wuyi Co.Ltd(000797) , Cccg Real Estate Corporation Limited(000736) .
Hong Kong stocks and real estate sectors also rose. Lvjing China real estate soared by more than 30%, Yuehai land soared by nearly 20%, and Yuzhou group, jiazhaoye Meihao, South China city and other stocks rose by more than 10%.
While real estate stocks rose sharply, real estate bonds soared collectively. "20 dragon control 04" rose by 20%, while "20 Zhengrong 03", "21 dragon control 02", "18 dragon control 05", "20 dragon control 01", "16 rongchuang 07", "20 Jinke 02" and "20 times 09" all rose by more than 10%.
Since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine eased on March 15, the market has ushered in a recovery rebound, and the real estate sector has performed prominently, leading the rise of all sectors. From March 15 to April 1, the Guojin real estate index rose by 29.1%, leading the rise of a shares; The rebound of Hong Kong stocks and real estate sector was also bright, up 19.9%.
The net capital inflow of the real estate sector ranked second. In the same period, the net capital inflow of the A-share real estate sector was 2.7 billion yuan, second only to the banking sector.
At present, the introduction of improvement policies has accelerated, the market has strong expectations for further policy easing in the future, and the performance of the real estate sector has also strengthened.
fundamentals continue to decline the performance of enterprises with bottom-up housing
While the real estate sector is "hot", the real estate fundamentals continue to be "cold".
In March, the overall performance of the real estate industry remained sluggish, facing multiple pressures from the sales side, credit side and land market.
1. New home sales continued to decline
CICC Securities pointed out that new home sales have continued to decline since the beginning of the year and are now at an all-time low. Since the fourth quarter of last year, the sales area of weekly high-frequency new houses in 50 key cities has decreased by more than 30% in other months, except for a slight rebound in December. Especially in February and March this year, the year-on-year decline has widened to - 37% and - 51% respectively. Among them, the weekly average in March is only flat compared with that in January and February. Whether in terms of year-on-year decline or month on month seasonality, new home sales are at the lowest level in history.
Residents have a heavy wait-and-see mood in buying houses. RMB 1.32 billion of new loans nationwide (estimated to be RMB 1.45 billion year-on-year); The medium and long-term new RMB loans of residents are - 45.9 billion yuan (year-on-year - 111%), which is negative for the first time since the statistics. Most of the medium and long-term loans of residents are housing loans, and the new value-added is negative, which means that the loan repayment amount in the current month is greater than the loan amount, and the residents' willingness to buy a house is low.
2, the sales decline of top 100 real estate enterprises widened
The consistency of sales decline of the top 100 real estate enterprises widened, and the performance shrank by 50%. Since September last year, the sales volume of the top 100 real estate enterprises has maintained a year-on-year decline of - 30% to - 40%, but it has widened significantly since the beginning of the year. The year-on-year decline in January, February and March has reached - 41%, - 47% and - 53% respectively; Cumulatively, the sales amount of the top 100 real estate enterprises in the first quarter of this year decreased by 47% year-on-year.
The land market is still depressed
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) Securities pointed out that the transaction situation in the land market continues to be depressed. From January to February, the cumulative land transaction price of real estate development enterprises was - 26.7% year-on-year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 29.5 percentage points lower than that from January to December 2021 and 22.5 percentage points lower than that in a single month in December 2021; From January to February, the cumulative land acquisition area of real estate development enterprises was - 42.3% year-on-year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 26.8 percentage points lower than that from January to December 2021 and 9.1 percentage points lower than that in a single month in December 2021.
4. The capital pressure of real estate enterprises is still
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) believes that the issuance of bonds of real estate enterprises continues to decrease. The issuance amount of public bonds of 4q21 and 1q22 real estate enterprises (including China's credit bonds and overseas foreign debt) was 117.4 billion yuan and 165.7 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of - 47.8% and - 46.8% respectively. Mainly due to the impact of successive defaults of overseas foreign debt of several real estate enterprises in the second half of 2021, it was more difficult for real estate enterprises to issue overseas foreign debt.
The maturing bonds of real estate enterprises are still at a high level. Although the amount of bonds issued by real estate enterprises continues to decrease, the amount of matured bonds is still high. The annual average level from 2022 to 2024 is 600 billion yuan, of which the amount of 2q22, 3q22 and 4q22 matured bonds is 179.7 billion yuan, 217.5 billion yuan and 150.4 billion yuan respectively. The current bond issuance level cannot cover the amount of maturing bonds, and the pressure on the sales collection end of real estate enterprises has intensified. If the bond issuance amount of 2q22 maintains the 1q22 level, there will be a gap of 14 billion yuan in the maturing bonds of real estate enterprises.
learn from history: how to go through the three rounds of historical real estate policy cycle
Looking back on the history and the performance of the real estate sector since 2014, China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) believes that there are three periods that deserve special attention: July 2014 to may 2015, January 2019 to March, and June 2020 to August. During these three periods, there are many similarities between the macro, industrial and policy environment and the present, and the real estate sector has also seen a continuous upward trend for several months.
1. July 2014 ~ may 2015: comprehensive relaxation of real estate policy
During this period, the real estate sector rose for nearly 11 consecutive months, with an increase of 184.45%.
The macro and industrial environment during this period is generally in a period of continuous downward economic growth, sluggish new construction and commercial housing sales, and gradual downward investment growth.
This round of market benefited from the comprehensive relaxation of demand side policies in the real estate industry. Under the background of continuous decline in economic growth, increasing pressure on steady growth and continuous accumulation of real estate inventory from 2014 to 2015, the central government gradually relaxed the regulation of the real estate market. In July 2014, the statement of the Ministry of housing and urban rural development marked that "destocking" officially became the main line of real estate policy. Subsequently, many departments followed in and out of Taiwan to reduce the down payment ratio of housing loans and reduce the tax burden on real estate transactions.
2. January 2019 to March 2019: macroeconomic leverage stabilization after deleveraging
The real estate sector rose for three consecutive months, up 31.85%.
The macro and industrial environment during this period is generally in the process of increasing downward pressure on economic growth, the growth rate of newly started area is in the downward range, the heat of commercial housing sales is reduced, and the growth rate of land transactions is changing from positive to negative.
This round of market benefits from the demand for macroeconomic leverage. During this period, GDP growth fell below the stable range of 6.8% ~ 7.0% since 2016, and the pressure for steady growth increased. From the perspective of real estate policy, in line with the macro policy shift, due to the further opening of urban policy space, since the end of 2018, Guangzhou, Heze, Zhuhai and other places have successively relaxed the real estate regulation policy, and the marginal space for policy relaxation in the real estate industry has increased under the general tone of "no speculation in real estate".
3. From June 2020 to August 2020: the effect of policy easing after the epidemic appears
The real estate sector rose for three consecutive months, up 15.79%.
Observing the macro and industrial environment during this period, it is generally in the process of economic growth recovering from the impact of the epidemic, low and positive growth of new construction area, recovery of commercial housing sales heat, stable growth of real estate investment and positive growth of land transaction price.
This round of market benefited from the overall loose macro and industrial policies after the epidemic. In the first half of 2020, in order to cope with the impact of covid-19 epidemic, the macro policy was in the loose stage, and there was no obvious increase in the regulation of "real estate without speculation" in the real estate industry. All localities fine tuned the real estate policy due to urban policies. In the first half of 2020, the central bank has repeatedly put liquidity into the market by means of RRR reduction and targeted RRR reduction; In order to cope with the impact of the epidemic on the pace of real estate sales and completion delivery, many places have flexibly introduced favorable policies related to real estate from both ends of supply and demand, driving the stabilization of industry sales and investment. In the second half of 2020, with the introduction of three red lines, housing loan concentration management system and other policies, this round of real estate market ended.
standing at the moment: policy improvement is expected to strengthen, and the inflection point will eventually come
Recently, all localities have begun to intensively introduce real estate policies, including canceling and relaxing purchase and loan restrictions, accelerating project development, improving the use efficiency of pre-sale funds, reducing land payment requirements, reducing pre-sale conditions, etc.
For example, on April 1, Quzhou City issued a new policy and cancelled the purchase and sale restrictions at the same time; Qinhuangdao abolished the regulation and control policy in 2017 and cancelled the acquisition policy on April 2. Lanzhou issued a notice on April 4, which repeatedly mentioned the virtuous circle of real estate enterprises and supported the demand for house purchase, land acquisition by real estate enterprises and loans.
According to incomplete statistics, since March, Fuzhou, Zhengzhou, Harbin, Qingdao, Jimo, Quzhou, Qinhuangdao, Mianyang and other places have liberalized restrictive measures such as purchase and sales restrictions. According to the data of the first quarter, according to the incomplete statistics of the China Index Research Institute, more than 60 cities issued real estate easing policies more than 100 times in the first quarter.
in the current context, many securities companies are shouting, watch more
Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) believes that under the dual catalysis of steady growth and undervalued value, the current real estate sector still has upward mobility. The current Pb of real estate is at the quantile level of 9.28% undervalued value in the past 10 years. With the improvement of policy margin, the industry may usher in a new era.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) securities is fully optimistic about the performance of the real estate industry. It believes that relevant policies are expected to continue to be relaxed in the future. At present, the overall valuation of the real estate industry is still at a low level, and the sector Pb is at the historical quantile level of 12.8% since 2014; The current valuation of leading real estate enterprises represented by poly and Vanke is still far from the highest valuation level in the previous three rounds of historical market.
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) believes that under the background of medium and long-term support, the inflection point of the industry will come when loose policies are introduced to cover the real estate market. As a pillar industry of the national economy, the healthy development and virtuous cycle of the real estate industry is an important guarantee for China's GDP to achieve a growth rate of 5.5% in 2022; We should prevent systemic financial risks caused by real estate risks; To meet the reasonable needs of consumers and protect people's livelihood, it is necessary to introduce loose policies to promote the recovery of the industry.
