1) in terms of photovoltaic, in order to get rid of energy dependence and accelerate the construction of photovoltaic projects in Europe, the improvement of terminal module production schedule of Chinese module manufacturers reflects strong demand, and the price rise of silicon wafer reflects the tight supply and demand structure. It is expected that with the distributed promotion and the launch of Fengguang large base project, the global installed capacity is expected to exceed the expectation in 2022, focusing on high-quality companies in photovoltaic silicon materials, adhesive films, modules, inverters and equipment; In terms of wind power, Shandong Province subsidizes the sea wind, and the superimposed bidding maintains high-speed growth, reflecting the continuous improvement of the industry prosperity, and the probability of superimposed new energy subsidies increases. The installed capacity of land wind is expected to rebound significantly in 2022. It is optimistic about the restoration of wind power landscape and the export opportunities of wind turbines in overseas markets; In terms of energy storage, the relevant policies of the 14th five year plan are expected to continue to be issued, and the cost reduction is expected to promote the continuous outbreak of the energy storage industry. It is suggested to focus on the pumped storage and electrochemical energy storage industry chain. 2) The construction of new power system under the "double carbon goal" has been promoted in an all-round way. It is expected that large-scale power grid upgrading and transformation investment and major projects will still be important countercyclical regulation means. Relying on the needs of upgrading and transformation, the power grid will increase digital and intelligent investment, which has become a new infrastructure application scenario and can be used as an important starting point for the secondary market to tap the investment opportunities on the power grid side.
New energy: photovoltaic demand remains strong, wind power is expected to start the recovery market, and policies promote the acceleration of energy storage demand.
1) photovoltaic: Recently, silicon material leaders have successively raised the price of silicon wafers, and the production scheduling of terminal modules has improved month on month in April, indicating that the downstream demand outside China is strong, the supply of silicon material is tight, and the price remains high, resulting in the tight supply and demand structure.
With the new capacity of silicon material reaching the production capacity in 2022q2, the supply chain pressure is expected to ease steadily. It is expected that the industry will return to the main road of cost reduction and efficiency increase. At the same time, China's scenery base, the whole line promotion and BIPV policy promotion, the industry demand is expected to accelerate. It is expected that the annual installed capacity in China is expected to increase to 75-80gw. Combined with the accelerated construction progress of photovoltaic projects in Europe, the overseas installed capacity is expected to maintain a relatively high growth, The global installed capacity is expected to exceed 230gw It is recommended to focus on photovoltaic modules, inverters, silicon materials, adhesive films and equipment.
2) wind power: it is estimated that Shandong provincial finance will give subsidies of 800, 500 and 300 yuan per kilowatt for the sea breeze projects completed and connected to the grid in 22-24 years, and the subsidy scale will not exceed 2, 3.4 and 1.6gw respectively, which will be the second province to subsidize sea breeze after Guangdong. In the short term, concerns about the impact of rising raw material prices on profits and shipments still suppress the sector. Since 2022, land wind / sea wind bidding has continued to exceed expectations, reflecting the continuous improvement of the industry prosperity. It is expected that the owner of Q2 will continue to start construction. We expect that in 2022, with the accelerated upgrading of megawatts of wind power, the accelerated construction of large base projects and the overall price reduction of wind turbines, the installed capacity of onshore wind power is expected to rebound rapidly, the yield is expected to be significantly repaired, and the overall installed capacity of the whole year is expected to reach more than 50gw; In 2022, offshore wind power will withdraw due to the subsidy policy or face the pressure of phased adjustment. However, with the centralized bidding period of provincial offshore wind projects, especially the medium and long-term planning objectives of Hainan and Shandong have been issued recently, laying the foundation and confidence for the recovery of installed capacity after 2023. At the same time, with the technological upgrading and substantial improvement of cost performance advantages of Chinese fan manufacturers, the fan export market is expected to accelerate growth in 2022.
3) energy storage: the implementation plan for the development of new energy storage in the 14th five year plan and the plan for the modern energy system in the 14th five year plan, which have been issued recently, provide clear policy guidelines for the distribution and storage of renewable energy. It is expected that 2022 will become the key time point for the outbreak of energy storage projects in China. The construction of large-scale renewable energy needs the support of power system and its supporting facilities. To achieve the "double carbon" goal and the construction of new power system, it is necessary to promote the construction of new energy power generation sources such as photovoltaic and wind power, and support base load power supply and peak shaving power supply to provide support for new energy power generation. With the active promotion of China's policies, the introduction of multi place storage and distribution planning has helped to improve the scale of energy storage. It is expected that from the second half of 2022, the cost of wind power, photovoltaic manufacturing and energy storage system will decline, which is expected to continuously improve the economy of energy storage. We judge that from 2021 to 2025, the global energy storage market will release 20.1/32.7/52.5/65.3/93.2gw energy storage construction demand respectively, and the capacity demand under the comprehensive standby time will be 38.8/68.5/108.1/158.8/235.7gwh respectively, which is expected to drive the explosive growth of procurement demand for major energy storage technologies and related industrial chains.
Electrical equipment: new regulations on energy science and technology were issued to grasp the opportunities of industry transformation and localization of industrial chain. Recently, the national energy administration and the Ministry of science and Technology issued the scientific and technological innovation plan in the energy field during the 14th five year plan, The plan proposes to "focus on achieving self-reliance and self-improvement in energy science and technology, rely on improving the energy science and technology innovation system, strive to strengthen the" short board "of energy technology and equipment and forge the" long board "of energy technology and equipment, support and enhance the ability of sustainable and stable energy supply and risk control, and lead the construction of clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system". Focusing on high proportion renewable energy system technology, safe oil and gas supply technology, nuclear power technology, clean and efficient development and utilization technology of fossil energy, new energy technology, new mode and new business type (mainstream energy storage technology), relying on major energy projects and energy innovation platforms, improve R & D and transformation, and accelerate the localization of key parts, special software and core materials; From the perspective of energy transformation driven by "double carbon", energy efficient utilization and localization of industrial chain, it is suggested to pay attention to the industry development opportunity period of relevant companies.
Risk factors: the installed capacity growth of new energy is lower than expected; Industry competition intensifies; The supporting capacity of the industrial chain is limited; Product prices fell sharply; The implementation of favorable policies is less than expected; Power grid investment is less than expected; UHV approval rhythm is lower than expected; The macroeconomic boom is lower than expected; The industrial boom is less than expected; The growth rate of power consumption slows down; Domestic substitution is less than expected; The price of raw materials has risen sharply.
Investment strategy: 1) with the carbon neutral goal in mind, the investment strategy: 1) with the carbon neutral goal in the middle of the carbon neutral target, during the "14th five year" period, the landscape's installed hubs are expected to be expected to go up further. In the photovoltaic field, it's recommended to focus on the recommendations in the photovoltaic field. Focus on the silicon that benefits from the ever tight supply and demand landscape. The silicon tap Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) 00438 Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) 0043 Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) 0043 Shanghai Jielong Industry Group Corporation Limited(600836) 883 Shanghai Bright Power Semiconductor Co.Ltd(688368) 68 Shanghai Bright Power Semiconductor Co.Ltd(688368) 83686868686860089 \ Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) etc., rubber film link faucet Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) , carbon / carbon heat field quality supplier Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) , battery laser equipment faucet Wuhan Dr Laser Technology Corp.Ltd(300776) , component series welding machine faucet Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) ; In the field of wind power, it is suggested to focus on Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) , Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) , Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) , etc., which benefit from the upgrading of wind power technology; In the field of energy storage, Dongfang Electric Corporation Limited(600875) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Suwen Electric Energy Technology Co.Ltd(300982) and Xj Electric Co.Ltd(000400) in the field of pumped storage are recommended. 2) Electrical equipment sector: the investment in power grid is expected to enter a new boom period. In the field of power grid, it is recommended to focus on Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) , Xj Electric Co.Ltd(000400) , Shanghai Holystar Information Technology Co.Ltd(688330) , Windsun Science Technology Co.Ltd(688663) , Windsun Science Technology Co.Ltd(688663) , and the domestic comprehensive equipment leader Dongfang Electric Corporation Limited(600875) ; Under the rotation of industrial control cycle, focus on recommending domestic industrial control leader Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co.Ltd(300124) ; In 2021, the year-on-year growth rate of power consumption reached 10.3%. It is recommended to focus on domestic low-voltage electrical appliance leaders Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) , Shanghai Liangxin Electrical Co.Ltd(002706) , and power EPCO service providers Suwen Electric Energy Technology Co.Ltd(300982) .
