Key investment points
Household sector: (1) industry level: affected by the epidemic and demand, the monthly sales (trading caliber) of the top 100 real estate enterprises in March decreased by 52.7% year-on-year (increased by 5.5pct compared with February), and the cumulative sales decline from January to March expanded to 47%. Although there is a trend of easing and improvement in the current policy, there is no obvious sign of warming in the overall market supply and demand and transactions in the short term, and it will take time for the transmission and implementation of the policy to pick up.
(2) enterprise level: from the monthly order data of enterprises tracked by us, the overall growth rate is still stable. The growth rate of Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) order receiving in March is expected to be 20% +, and the growth rate of gold medal order receiving is expected to be close to 20%.
We analyze that the reason why the growth rate of enterprise orders remains stable is that on the one hand, the buildings delivered at the end of 2021 will start decoration after the festival (that is, the release of backlog demand in the early stage); On the other hand, it also benefits from leading enterprises seizing the market share of small and medium-sized brands through the whole package, and the market share has been improved to a certain extent. At this stage, the valuation level of key home furnishing enterprises has achieved high performance price ratio, which is at the bottom of the historical valuation center. We continue to be optimistic about the software home furnishing leader Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) , customization leader Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) and high-quality mattress enterprise Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) . We suggest paying attention to the elastic target Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) with continuous improvement of corporate governance and Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) .
Paper sector: (1) cultural paper: the price of cultural paper was flat month on month this week. On the demand side, local social orders have weakened due to the impact of the epidemic; On the cost side, the pulp price fluctuates at a high level, and there is still some support. Sun, app and other cultural paper increased by 300 yuan / ton since March 1, and increased by 300 yuan / ton again from April 1. At present, the ton price of double offset paper and coated paper has increased by about 300 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of March, and the first round of price increase letters have basically been implemented. (2) Packaging paper: the price of box board corrugated paper increased slightly month on month this week.
On the demand side, affected by the epidemic, the logistics and transportation in many places are limited, the supply and shipment of paper mills are not smooth, and the downstream demand is also poor; On the cost side, China's waste paper market has a small supply of goods as a whole, with the superimposed impact of the epidemic, higher freight rates and higher recycling prices in the packaging bin. The overall space for the rise of paper prices is relatively limited. We suggest paying attention to the cultural paper leader Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) (estimated Q1 net profit of about 500 million yuan), the special paper targets Xianhe Co.Ltd(603733) , Quzhou Wuzhou Special Paper Co.Ltd(605007) and Hangzhou Huawang New Material Technology Co.Ltd(605377) .
Risk tips: 1 Repeated epidemic impact; 2. Sharp decline in demand; 3. Policy risks.
