Key investment points
Electrical equipment 10346 fell 0.32%, weaker than the market. This week (from March 28 to April 1, the same below), power generation and power grid rose 1.27%, new energy vehicles rose 0.41%, industrial control automation rose 0%, nuclear power fell 1.33%, lithium battery fell 1.65%, wind power fell 2.13%, photovoltaic fell 2.44% and power generation equipment fell 3.07%. The top five gainers are Liaoning Sg Automotive Group Co.Ltd(600303) , Baoding Tianwei Baobian Electric Co.Ltd(600550) , Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) , Jiangsu Sinojit Wind Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601218) , Xiamen Faratronic Co.Ltd(600563) ; The top five declines were ST jiangte, ST Dongdian, Qingdao Zhongzi Zhongcheng Group Co.Ltd(300208) , Jiangsu Zhongli Group Co.Ltd(002309) , Clenergy(Xiamen)Technology Co.Ltd(603628) .
Industry level: electric vehicles: Tesla Q1 produces and sells 30.531000 vehicles, with a ring to ring ratio of about + 70% / 28% Byd Company Limited(002594) sold 104900 vehicles, with a month on month ratio of + 348% / 20%, compared with January + 13%; GAC aion sold 20300 vehicles, the same ring + 189% / 138%, compared with January + 27%; Ideal 11000 vehicles, same ring + 125% / 31%, 10% lower than that in January; 15400 Xiaopeng vehicles, the same ring + 202% / 148%, compared with January + 19%; 10000 Weilai vehicles, the same ring road + 38% / 63%, compared with January + 3%; 10100 zero running vehicles, with the same ring + 909% / 193%, compared with January + 24%; Nezha 12000, same ring + 270% / 69%, compared with January + 9%; Europe has disclosed that the total sales volume of the seven mainstream countries is 89000 vehicles (accounting for about 49% of the nine mainstream countries), with a month on month ratio of + 2% / + 41%, the penetration rate of electric vehicles is 21.6%, and a month on month ratio of + 5.5 / + 1.7pct; Due to the impact of the epidemic, Shanghai Tesla extended the scheduled 4-day shutdown time; Hainan issued several measures to encourage the use of new energy vehicles; Biden may launch the national defense production act to speed up the production of minerals required for electric vehicle batteries Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) in Hungary, the layout of large cylindrical power batteries was accelerated; The price of metal cobalt is 576400 yuan / ton, this week – 0.9% (month on month, the same below), nickel is 226000 yuan / ton, this week – 14.5%, manganese is 18300 yuan / ton, this week – 19.0%, metal lithium is 3130000 yuan / ton, this week is the same, battery grade lithium carbonate is 517500 yuan / ton, this week is the same, lithium hydroxide is 491500 yuan / ton, this week is the same, industrial grade DMC dimethyl carbonate is 5700 yuan / ton, this week – 1.7%, The quotation of Sanyuan 622 cathode is 395000 yuan / ton, which is + 1.8% this week. The quotation of Sanyuan 811 cathode is 422500 yuan / ton, which is + 1.4% this week. The quotation of lithium iron phosphate cathode is 164500 yuan / ton, which is the same this week. The quotation of PVDF is 675000 yuan / ton, which is the same this week. The quotation of Sanyuan PVDF is 850000 yuan / ton, which is the same this week. New energy: Irena released the outlook for world energy transformation in 2022. To control global warming within 1.5 degrees, 800gw of renewable energy will be installed every year before 2030, of which 500gw of photovoltaic energy will be required every year on average; The European PV Association proposed to develop PV more actively. In 2025, the installed capacity of PV in Europe will be 112gw, and the manufacturing capacity of 20GW will be proposed; The self inspection of the enterprise shall be completed before the end of March, and the Ministry of finance has given the budget; February full Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) grid connected consumption: wind power 96.5%, photovoltaic 96.3%; The National Energy Administration issued the guidance on energy work in 2022, emphasizing the vigorous development of wind power and photovoltaic; On March 29, the US Department of Commerce officially filed a case against China’s photovoltaic anti tax evasion, which was opposed by China’s Ministry of Commerce; This week’s monocrystalline silicon material is 252 yuan / kg, a month on month increase of + 1.20%; The quotation of 166 / 182 / 210mm monocrystalline silicon wafer is 5.55/6.7/8.87 yuan / wafer, with a month on month ratio of + 0.91% / flat / flat; Single crystal perc166 battery 1.12 yuan / W, ring ratio + 0.90%; Single crystal perc module is 1.84 yuan / W, unchanged month on month; Glass 3.2mm/2.0mm, quotation 26 / 20 yuan / flat. Industrial Control & Power Grid: from January to February, the power grid investment was 31.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 37.6%; In March, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5, with a month on month ratio of -0.7pct, including 51.3 (- 0.5pct) for large enterprises, 48.5 (- 2.9pct) for medium-sized enterprises and 46.6 (+ 1.5pct) for small enterprises.
Company level: Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) : 1) revenue of 10.259 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of 170.36% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 911 million yuan, an increase of 327.59% at the same time; 2) It is proposed to raise no more than 6.068 billion yuan to increase the new production capacity. 3) Signed a cooperation agreement with Wuhan to set up a fund management company and industrial investment fund in Hanyang, Wuhan, focusing on upstream and downstream projects of new energy related industries Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) : 1) in 2022q1, it is expected to achieve revenue of RMB 4.9 billion ~ 5.2 billion, an increase of 478% ~ 514% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.053 ~ 4.353 billion yuan, an increase of 478% ~ 514% at the same time. 2) It is proposed to invest 12 billion yuan in the construction of 32gw high-efficiency crystalline silicon battery project. The project is implemented in two phases. The investment of 16GW in phase I is about 6 billion yuan, and strive to be put into operation before the end of December 2023, and the second phase is started at an appropriate time Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) : in 2021, the revenue will reach 8.996 billion yuan, an increase of 70.36% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.749 billion yuan, an increase of 161.93% at the same time Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) : in 2021, the revenue reached 4.468 billion yuan, an increase of 125.06% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 542 million yuan, an increase of 203.19% Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) : 1) in 2021, the revenue reached 6.951 billion yuan, an increase of 134.76% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.307 billion yuan, an increase of 152.36% at the same time; 2) 2022q1 is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 482 million yuan to 513 million yuan, an increase of 210% ~ 230% at the same time; 3) The company plans to issue convertible corporate bonds to unspecified objects, and the amount raised shall not exceed 2 billion yuan; 4) Huizhou phase 3.5 solvent expansion project was invested with an investment amount of 195 million yuan Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) : the revenue will reach 8.258 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of 159.41% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.091 billion yuan, an increase of 183.45% at the same time.
Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) : the revenue will reach 4.842 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of 413.92% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 801 million yuan, an increase of 291883% at the same time Byd Company Limited(002594) : in 2021, the revenue reached 216142 billion yuan, an increase of 38.02% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.045 billion yuan, with a decrease of 28.09% Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) : it is planned to invest in the construction of four photovoltaic module glass projects with a daily melting capacity of 1200 tons, with an estimated total investment of about 3.8 billion yuan Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) : the revenue will reach 50.571 billion yuan in 2021, a decrease of 10.12% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.457 billion yuan, an increase of 16.65% at the same time.
Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd(002028) : 2022q1 is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 110 million ~ 160 million, with a decrease of 60.77% ~ 42.93% Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) : in 2022q1, the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 750 million ~ 850 million yuan, an increase of 148% ~ 181% at the same time. (the “prediction” in this paragraph is the company’s prediction) investment strategy: in March, the sales volume of China’s mainstream automobile enterprises was bright. It has been disclosed that 9 enterprises sold 190000 vehicles in total, up + 43%, compared with + 12% in January. We expect the sales volume of 45 Tianma Microelectronics Co.Ltd(000050) 0000 vehicles in March, which is better than the market expectation; Q1 sales volume is 1.2 million vehicles +, and there is no suspense for 6 million vehicles in the whole year + (with an increase of 70%). In April, the industry emission was still affected by the epidemic, with a flat and slight increase, but Q2 new cars were released intensively and the peak sales season gradually came. We expect the lithium battery emission to increase faster from May to June, and the leader is expected to double in the whole year. In Europe, electric vehicles grew against the trend in March. It has been disclosed that the total sales volume of the seven mainstream countries was 89000 vehicles (accounting for about 49% of the nine mainstream countries), with a month on month ratio of + 2% / + 41%. Although the growth rate slowed down, the penetration rate was 21.6%. The month on month ratio of + 6 / + 2pct further increased, and it is still expected to increase by 30% to 2.8 million vehicles in the whole year. The market value of lithium electric vehicles is expected to continue to rise by 220000 (the current market value of lithium electric vehicles is expected to be higher than that of the previous year, and the market value of lithium electric vehicles is still strongly expected to rise by 250000). The EU’s medium-term photovoltaic demand is more optimistic, and it is expected to exceed the market expectation in 2022. The global photovoltaic installed capacity in 2022 is 240250gw, an increase of nearly 50%, of which China expects about 90gw, an increase of 65% + at the same time. From the micro point of view, the module production was reduced slightly in March to cope with the cost pressure and the downstream price increase. The overall demand of Q2 is strong, and it continues to be optimistic about the modules, inverters and high-quality leaders. The domestic substitution of industrial control continued, and the boom began to pick up in December of the 21st year. The growth of leading orders from January to February exceeded market expectations, focusing on the leading Huichuan. After the rush to install wind power, the cost fell sharply and entered the era of parity. The land wind resumed growth in 22 years and the sea wind resumed growth in 23 years. Pay attention to new export opportunities after parity. Power grid investment is expected to increase steadily, focusing on the structural opportunities brought by the new power system.
Key recommended targets: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (the global leader in power battery performance greatly exceeds market expectations, high-quality customers, leading technology and cost advantages), Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) (power lithium battery gradually becomes the leader and electronic cigarette provides support), Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) (the global leader in wet diaphragm and strong profitability), Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) (Electrolyte & hexafluoride leader and new lithium salt leader), Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) (the global leader in negative electrode and diaphragm coating) marketexpectation, profit inflection point) Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) (210 module leader, household system outbreak), Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) (integrated module leader, 2022 profit elasticity can be expected), Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) (positive stable leader, strong profitability and low valuation), Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) (carbon nanotube conductive agent leader, entering the upper volume stage), Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) (global leader of inverter and forward-looking layout of energy storage), Byd Company Limited(002594) (sales of electric vehicles continue to exceed market expectations and external supply of blade batteries accelerates) Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) (series inverter leader with high performance growth), Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) (distributed inverter with high growth and strong energy storage business), Hemai Co., Ltd. (the shipment of micro inverter leader is expected to double continuously and the U.S. market begins to increase in volume), Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) (cobalt salt leader and positive precursor leader), Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) (global leader of ternary precursor and rapid expansion of production with high quality by customers), Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) (EVA and Poe leaders and the amount of photosensitive dry film) Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) 0500 \ Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) , Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) , No. 9 company, China Leadshine Technology Co.Ltd(002979) , Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy Co.Ltd(600732) , Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) Arctech Solar Holding Co.Ltd(688408) 。 It is suggested to pay attention to: Jingke energy, Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) , Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) , beiteri, Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) , etc.
Risk tip: the investment growth rate is declining, the policy is lower than the market expectation, and the price competition is higher than the market expectation
