Introduction to this report:
The proportion of real estate gross profit of central enterprises is China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) 41%, the highest / China Railway Group Limited(601390) 10% / China Railway Construction Corporation Limited(601186) 9%. China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) is the warming of real estate policy β The most undervalued in the market α Only 60% of the valuation of Wanbao recruitment fund, and the 10-year low of China Railway Group Limited(601390) and railway construction valuation summary:
[land TA property can be regarded as s-corner um in M guoary construction] the construction real estate policy is the most underestimated in the warming market. (1) China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) financial report said that it was rated a / A2 / a by the three major international rating agencies S & P / Moody's / Fitch, which is the highest credit rating in the world in the industry. The subordinate CNOOC real estate is a "green" enterprise, and the debt level remains in the lowest range of the industry. 2022 China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) pe4 / pb0 7 times, far lower than the average pe7 / PB1 of Wanbao Zhaojin real estate 2022 2 times, underestimated the credit financing advantages of central state-owned enterprises and the potential for both quantity and quality in the future. (2) China Railway Group Limited(601390) on hand orders increased by 22%, the guarantee multiple was 4, the performance required by equity incentive increased by more than 12%, the profit of copper and other mineral resources was 3 billion and the profit of real estate was 1.6 billion. (3) China Railway Construction Corporation Limited(601186) on hand orders increased by 14% and the guarantee ratio was 4.3 times. The performance will be accelerated, with a real estate profit of 3 billion and a PE of 3.5 billion 6. The lowest building in a decade.
Policy requirements put steady growth in a more prominent position, and it is expected that loose real estate policies will be introduced one after another.
(1) in March, the comprehensive PMI output index was 48.8%, down 2.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the production and operation prosperity level of Chinese enterprises has decreased. (2) In March, the top 50 real estate enterprises sold 322.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 54.1%, a year-on-year increase of - 48.4% and a decrease of 5.7 PCTs (3) The national Standing Committee stressed that the annual development goals should not be relaxed, the economic stability policies should be carried out early and quickly, and there should be no measures that are not conducive to stabilizing market expectations. The CBRC said that it should encourage institutions to carry out M & A loans in a stable and orderly manner, and focus on supporting high-quality real estate enterprises to merge and acquire high-quality projects of difficult real estate enterprises. The central bank said it would safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers, better meet the reasonable housing needs of home buyers, and promote the healthy development and virtuous cycle of the real estate market.
The purchase restriction policy was relaxed, the mortgage interest rate fell, and the local auction rules were improved. (1) the restriction policy is relaxed. Recently, Harbin, Qingdao, Fuzhou / Quzhou / Qinhuangdao have relaxed or cancelled the restriction policy on the purchase and sale. If Quzhou proposes registered residence related policies such as household registration, the Qinhuangdao purchase of stock (second-hand housing) buyers will only provide valid identity documents when they apply for the registered residence. (2) The mortgage interest rate declined. The loan interest rate of the first and second homes in 103 key cities of shell research decreased by 13 / 15 basis points from 5.34% / 5.60% in March, and the average lending cycle was 34 days, shortened by 4 days. (3) The local auction rules have been significantly improved. Hefei has reduced the proportion of affordable housing and the number of bundled land plots. Guangzhou and Shenzhen have relaxed the price limit requirements, and Jinan and Suzhou have reduced the proportion of deposit.
The real estate business of construction central state-owned enterprises will increase in both quantity and quality, which will increase the orders of the real estate chain and the source of infrastructure funds. (1) The most direct real estate benefits the construction central state-owned enterprises with a high proportion of real estate sales. The national policy focuses on supporting high-quality real estate enterprises to merge and acquire high-quality projects of difficult real estate enterprises. The industry reshuffle concentration is concentrated to the central state-owned enterprises with good credit qualification. The real estate business of high-quality central state-owned enterprise construction companies with strong financing ability is expected to usher in a double increase in quantity and quality. (2) To benefit the real estate industry chain, on the one hand, increase the orders of real estate design / construction / decoration / garden, and on the other hand, improve the funds of real estate enterprises, which is conducive to improve the cash flow and impairment of receivables of construction enterprises. (3) Favorable to infrastructure companies, the improvement of real estate sales and land auction will increase the income of local governments. First, the real estate itself needs supporting municipal infrastructure around to increase the demand for infrastructure, and second, enhance the financial strength of local governments to invest in infrastructure.
Risk tip: inflation is higher than expected, macro policy is tightened, and the global epidemic is repeated.
