The Energy Administration issued the guidance on energy work in 2022: “the installed capacity of electricity will reach about 2.6 billion kw in 2022”, which is estimated to be 9% higher than 2.38 billion kw at the end of 21. “The power generation has reached about 9.07 trillion kwh”, which is estimated to be yoy + 6%, “the peak power generation capacity has increased by more than 80 million KW, the replacement power of new electric energy is about 180 billion kwh, and the power generation of wind power and photovoltaic power accounts for about 12.2% of the power consumption of the whole society”, which is estimated to be 0.4pct higher than that in 2021 The 14th five year plan for modern energy system predicts that “by 2025, China’s total installed power generation capacity will reach about 3 billion kw”. We believe that the growth rate of installed capacity is likely to accelerate compared with 2021 (China Power union expects the growth rate of power consumption to be 5% – 6% in 22 years).
Acceleration of power marketization: Shandong accelerated the construction of capacity compensation (0.099 yuan / kWh) + spot market. Shandong capacity compensation standard is 0.0991 yuan per kWh (including tax), which is charged from the user side (relevant contents have been mentioned in the trading rules of Shandong electric power spot market (Trial Implementation) in 2020). Since this compensation is only for the spot market and is in its infancy, involving a small scale of electricity / subsidies, we believe that the provinces will gradually expand the transaction scale of the power spot market in the future, the spot market + auxiliary services will further promote the marketization of electricity price, and the return rate of thermal power units as an adjustable power source is expected to improve in a trend.
Yunnan accelerates photovoltaic development, Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc(600025) , China Yangtze Power Co.Ltd(600900) or benefits. Yunnan proposes to ensure that the annual development scale of photovoltaic projects is more than 15gw without capping; Focus on supporting multi energy complementary bases such as the lower reaches of the Jinsha River, the middle and lower reaches of the Lancang River, the Red River Basin, the middle reaches of the Jinsha River, the upper reaches of the Lancang River and the “scenery water storage” and the “scenery fire storage” in Qujing, and strive for the full commencement and basic completion in three years. It is suggested to pay attention to Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc(600025) , China Yangtze Power Co.Ltd(600900) .
Recycling companies are worth long-term optimistic. 1. Jiangsu Huahong Technology Co.Ltd(002645) : last week (3.28-4.01), the rare earth price index rose from – 4% to 377, and the average value of 22q1 was + 74% year-on-year compared with 21q1. The profit volume and price rose simultaneously. Jiangsu Huahong Technology Co.Ltd(002645) released the performance forecast of 22q1, and it is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 230270 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 71% – 100%. Considering that the price of rare earth in 22q1 is 400000 yuan / ton (68%) higher than the average price in 21 years, if the 22-year performance is annualized according to the median performance of 22q1, it can reach 1 billion yuan, which is far higher than the 700 million yuan unanimously expected by wind. At present, the market value is 11.5 billion yuan, and the PE in 2022 is only 12 times. 2, China official account of waste oil and Biodiesel: according to the official public address of Argus, logistics in Jiangsu province (the important distributing center of China’s kitchen waste oil UCO export) this week is still very strict because of the epidemic control and superimposed China’s many provinces and cities. The output of waste oil produced by the abolition of the Chinese restaurant waste has been reduced by nearly half, and the support for China’s UCO bulk cargo talks should be further strengthened.
We believe that waste oil and biodiesel have the attribute of rare varieties to reduce carbon and deserve long-term appreciation. It is suggested to pay attention to the leader of waste oil Bece Legend Group Co.Ltd(000803) , the producer of raw firewood Zhejiang Jiaao Enprotech Stock Co.Ltd(603822) , Longyan Zhuoyue New Energy Co.Ltd(688196) .
The national development and Reform Commission checked the coal price index again, and the port price fell in response. Last week, the national development and Reform Commission completed the review of the coal price index. China’s spot coal price fell from 1495 yuan / ton to 1295 yuan / ton. As of last Thursday (3.31), the daily consumption demand of power plants in the eight coastal provinces was weak year-on-year, and the inventory of power plants increased slightly. We believe that the power industry has a good trend. Suggestions for attention: thermal power transformation ( Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) , Huadian Power International Corporation Limited(600027) , China Resources Power, An Hui Wenergy Company Limited(000543) , Zhejiang Zheneng Electric Power Co.Ltd(600023) , Inner Mongolia Mengdian Huaneng Thermal Power Corporation Limited(600863) , Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) , Gd Power Development Co.Ltd(600795) , Datang International Power Generation Co.Ltd(601991) ); New energy ( China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) , Longyuan Power, CGN new energy, Fujian Funeng Co.Ltd(600483) , Zhongmin Energy Co.Ltd(600163) , Datang new energy); Hydropower ( China Yangtze Power Co.Ltd(600900) , Sdic Power Holdings Co.Ltd(600886) , Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc(600025) , Sichuan Chuantou Energy Co.Ltd(600674) , Guizhou Qianyuan Power Co.Ltd(002039) ); Nuclear power ( China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) , Cgn Power Co.Ltd(003816) ); Power grid ( Chongqing Three Gorges Water Conservancy And Electric Power Co.Ltd(600116) , Chongqing Fuling Electric Power Industrial Co.Ltd(600452) ).
Risk warning. (1) The expectation of economic growth and monetary policy lead to great fluctuations in market style. (2) The direction of power marketization is determined, but the development time is difficult to determine.
