Investment strategy: (1) base metals: this week, China’s epidemic continued to suppress China’s demand, and the resumption of production in Yunnan and other places was smooth, but the import exposure was closed. At the same time, the reduction of overseas aluminum supply was much greater than the demand. The global aluminum inventory continued to decline by 1.7137 million tons month on month and more than 1 million tons year on year. In the short term, the peak demand season in April may be affected by the epidemic, and the marginal improvement of real estate is good for the improvement of aluminum demand. In the medium and long term, high energy consumption and indicators still restrict supply, and electric vehicles, photovoltaic and energy storage drive demand growth. In the long run, new energy drives demand growth, double carbon will continue to lead to insufficient supply, and the shortage supports the rise of aluminum price. Continue to pay attention to Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) ( Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) ), Tianshan Aluminum Group Co.Ltd(002532) ( Tianshan Aluminum Group Co.Ltd(002532) ) and Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) ( Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) ). Secondly, focus on Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) ( Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) ), Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) ( Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) ) and Western Mining Co.Ltd(601168) ( Western Mining Co.Ltd(601168) ). Hong Kong stocks focused on China Hongqiao (1378) and China Nonferrous Mining (1258). （2） New energy metals: this week, the quotation of the upstream lithium salt plant was stable, the downstream cathode plant was on the sidelines, but the overall procurement was normal, and some low-cost goods from Midstream traders flowed out, resulting in a slight drop in the actual transaction price. In the short term, most of the imported lithium carbonate is transported through Shanghai port. The epidemic affects the outbound logistics, or further leads to tight supply. In April, the start-up of positive pole still increased month on month. The price of iron and lithium is close to the price of 523 yuan, and the cost performance is greatly reduced. In the medium term, Jiangxi lithium mica has limited space and needs a certain time. There are signs of acceleration in Australia. However, due to the serious epidemic, there are still challenges to whether it can be on schedule. Even if it is normally promoted, the vast majority of production will be next year. Lithium mine will be the biggest short board in the electric vehicle industry chain in 22 and 23 years, and will continue to enjoy high profits and high growth. Lithium resources with scarcity attribute and volume price dual logic are the first choice, followed by processing stock volume logic. Pay attention to Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) ( Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) ); Zangger mining ( Zangge Holding Company Limited(000408) ) and Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) ( Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) ), others can pay attention to: lithium: Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) ( Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) ); Cobalt nickel: China Molybdenum Co.Ltd(603993) ( China Molybdenum Co.Ltd(603993) ), Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co.Ltd(300618) ( Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co.Ltd(300618) ) and Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) ( Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) ); Ternary precursors: Gem Co.Ltd(002340) ( Gem Co.Ltd(002340) ), Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) ( Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) ) and Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) ( Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) ); Positive pole: Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) ( Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) ) and Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) ( Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) ); Copper foil: Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) ( Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) ) and Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) ( Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) ).
One week market review: Market: this week, the non-ferrous metal sector fell 1.97%, lagging behind the increase, significantly underperforming the 2.43% increase of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index. All sub industries fell, with aluminum, copper and non-metallic new materials falling by 0.72%, 1.17% and 1.17% respectively, ranking among the top three increases; New metal materials fell 4.45%, with poor performance. Shares: Grinm Advanced Materials Co.Ltd(600206) \ (4.84%) and Western Superconducting Technologies Co.Ltd(688122) (4.82%). Volume price:
Base metal: copper price: LME, SHFE and Changjiang are – 0.28%, 1.00% and 0.78% respectively; Aluminum price: LME, SHFE and Changjiang are 7.00%, 1.14% and 2.09% respectively. The global copper inventory was 427200 tons, 17400 tons month on month; The global aluminum inventory was 1.7452 million tons, down from – 91000 tons month on month. Energy metal: lithium price: lithium hydroxide (electricity) 0.4%, spodumene concentrate 0.7%, lithium carbonate (electricity) unchanged; Cobalt price: MB standard cobalt 0.3%, cobalt chloride (electricity) 0.5%; Cobalt (III) – M1.0% (III) – M1.0%; Positive electrode price: no change; Negative electrode price: no change; Aluminum foil price: no change; Electrolyte:
No change; Diaphragm: no change. Major event: macro: on the afternoon of April 1, the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council held a press conference. The epidemic situation in Jilin Province is still in the development stage, with a total of more than 44000 cases of infection reported, and the community transmission in the control area of Changchun City, Jilin City has not been blocked; The epidemic situation in Shanghai is rising rapidly. More than 36000 cases of infection have been reported, and the number of infected people will continue to increase in the near future. The former value of China’s official manufacturing PMI in March was 50.2, the predicted value was 49.9, and the published value was 49.5.on April 1, 431000 non-agricultural jobs were added in the United States in March, with an expected 490000. The annual rate of core PCE price index of the United States in February was 5.20%, the predicted value was 5.50%, and the published value was 5.4%. Industry: ake Australia MT cattlin lithium mine: spodumene concentrate (CIF 6%) was US $5000 / ton in the second quarter of 22 and US $2218 / ton in the first quarter; The sales volume in the second quarter is expected to be 50000 tons… Company: the ore processing capacity of Marion spodumene project is upgraded. According to the calculation results, it is estimated that the lithium concentrate capacity of MT Marion spodumene project will increase from 450000 T / A to Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) T / a before April 2022. Meanwhile, it is planned to expand the existing lithium concentrate capacity to 900000 tons / year, which is expected to be completed by the end of 2022. Lithium and rare earth targets have a bright quarterly forecast.
Risk tip: base metals: liquidity tightened, and the global economic recovery was lower than expected; Precious metals: liquidity tightening; New energy metals: overvalued and prices fell; Rare earth magnetic materials: the price fell and the valuation was high.
