Viewpoint: according to the leading indicator data of the economy for four consecutive months, the economy has rebounded, but on the whole, it is still backward, and the downward pressure is still large. However, the data recovery may boost the market in the short term. In addition, with the support of relatively stable fundamentals and liquidity, the market as a whole has maintained a good foundation. Under a series of monetary policy measures in the fourth quarter of last year, the monetary easing cycle gradually opened, and the market as a whole was still boosted by the expectation of abundant liquidity. Since the Qingming holiday, the global market as a whole has been developing first and then restraining, which has a certain emotional impact on a shares. The previous weak rebound combined with the Fed's interest rate hike and contraction table and the rebound in commodity prices has brought about persistent concerns about stagflation. The short-term market has the possibility of rising, falling and repeating. It is not recommended to blindly catch up. Under the trend of policy force, if the market ushers in stage adjustment, it is still a good time for the overall low absorption.
During the Qingming holiday, the overseas market once rose, but it began to decline as a whole yesterday, which also has a certain emotional impact on the trend of today's market. Both Shanghai and Shenzhen markets opened low, with intraday shocks falling. During this period, we saw the continued performance of the defensive sector, which also shows that the current market funds are still relatively cautious.
Last week, we said that in the process of market oversold and rebound, there are still several concerns: on the one hand, economic leading indicators indicate economic pressure. In particular, the latest manufacturing manager index fell below the boom and bust line again after a lapse of five months, which also shows that the current pressure of economic growth is still under pressure on the market; On the other hand, the overall capital is still cautious. For example, since the oversold rebound, the overall increment of the market is insufficient, and there are few transactions of more than trillion in the two cities. The poor transactions also bury the hidden danger of the rise and fall of the index.
Of course, we say that overseas markets also have concerns. First, the impact of the global monetary contraction under the Fed's interest rate increase and contraction table. For example, when we look at northward capital, although it still goes in and out, the overall inflow rate slows down, and even there is a phenomenon of large outflow in a single day, which still suppresses market confidence; Secondly, the rebound in commodity prices will have a negative cost impact on the economy in the short term, but also bring concerns about the continuation of stagflation.
Therefore, whether in China or overseas, there are still concerns and strong inhibition at this stage, which may be a big test for the oversold rebound. After a continuous rebound, if the transaction continues to be poor, we should still pay attention to the possible rise and fall.
However, we say that the most difficult moment has passed. For April, under the increasing pressure of economic growth, it is expected to usher in a new policy force window, and under the policy support, the market bottom is also expected to fluctuate and brew repeatedly. Previously, we suggested that investors can game the oversold rebound here, bargain hunting and strategic allocation. At present, we can consider reducing our holdings appropriately and prepare for the next fall in low absorption and allocation.
On the one hand, steady growth is still the main line, and new and old infrastructure and other sectors can still be tracked; On the other hand, under the correction of real estate, the valuation rebound of the banking sector is worth looking forward to, especially under the current historical low valuation, the safety margin is relatively strong; In addition, during the quarterly report window period, some technology stocks with high prosperity can play an appropriate game in the periodic oversold rebound market.
