On April 1, Shandong Provincial Energy Bureau said that for the “14th five year plan” offshore wind power projects completed and connected to the grid in 20222024, the provincial finance will give subsidies of 800 yuan, 500 yuan and 300 yuan per kilowatt respectively, and the subsidy scale will not exceed 2 million kilowatts, 3.4 million kilowatts and 1.6 million kilowatts respectively. Offshore wind power projects that are completed and connected to the grid before the end of 2023 are exempted from the construction or leasing of energy storage facilities. In September 2021, Guangdong Province issued a subsidy policy of 1500, 1000 and 500 yuan / kW from 2022 to 2024, which is limited to projects approved before 2018. Taking Guohua Bozhong I site and Shandong energy Bozhong a as examples, the investment intensity is 12700 yuan / kW and 12800 yuan / kW respectively. If the construction is completed in 2022 (800 / kW subsidy), the investment can be reduced by about 6.3%. We believe that the subsidy policy will accelerate the commencement and grid connection process of Shandong Haifeng project, the development scale and parity speed of offshore wind power are expected to exceed expectations, and the installed capacity of offshore wind power will enter a new round of growth cycle. We are optimistic about (1) the offshore wind power industry chain spanning from 1 to 10 is expected to be realized in the next few years, benefiting Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) , Haili wind power, Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) , etc; (2) Vigorously develop offshore wind power, and companies with large marginal changes in the future will benefit from Zhejiang Windey Co.Ltd(300772) , Jiangyin Hengrun Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(603985) , etc.
Large scale promotes the decline of installation cost, and the policy overweight strengthens the basis of parity. The trough after large-scale + rush loading promotes the rapid decline of installation cost in the industry. At present, the sea breeze is close to parity.
According to the recent bidding data, the bidding for wind turbine units and auxiliary equipment of zheneng Taizhou No. 1 offshore wind farm project has a single unit capacity of 7.0-9.0mw and a quotation of 3548 yuan / kW (including tower). As the beginning of the 14th five year plan, 2021 will add 47.57gw of grid connected installed capacity of wind power in China, including 16.9gw of offshore wind power.
However, after the sea wind rush in 2021, the offshore wind power will withdraw or face phased adjustment pressure due to the national subsidy policy in 2022; However, with the gradual introduction of a new round of sea breeze support policies in Guangdong, Shandong, Zhejiang and other provinces, it will further lay the foundation and confidence for the continuous recovery of installed capacity after 2022. The subsequent bidding volume is expected to continue to improve, and the relevant companies have a good growth period in 2023 and 2024.
On April 2, the national energy administration and the Ministry of science and Technology issued a notice on printing and distributing the 14th five year plan for scientific and technological innovation in the energy field. With regard to offshore wind power, the notice mainly involves two aspects: (1) offshore wind power development in far-reaching sea areas and super large offshore wind turbine technology. Carry out research on new high-efficiency and low-cost wind power technology, break through the key technology of multi wind turbine echelon utilization, and significantly improve the efficiency of wind energy capture and utilization; Break through the design and manufacturing technology of key components such as ultra long blades, large structural parts, converters, spindle bearings and main controllers. (2) Recovery and reuse technology of retired wind turbines. Focus on breaking through technologies such as low-cost blade crushing, high-temperature cracking of organic materials, glass fiber and Basha wood recycling, and build an environment-friendly and resource-saving technical standard system for wind turbine decommissioning. With the further maturity of sea breeze large-scale technology, the cost of sea breeze will be further reduced, and the supply chain pattern will be optimized. The parity of onshore wind power will be achieved in 2021. It is expected that offshore wind power will usher in the parity year with the process of large-scale units in 2022, and leading enterprises in all links will continue to benefit from it.
Risk tip: the policy promotion is not as expected, the industry competition is intensified, and the price of raw materials fluctuates sharply.
