As a core sensor, lidar has high development potential: automatic driving develops at a high speed. Although the industry is mainly divided into two camps represented by pure vision represented by Tesla and multi-sensor fusion represented by lidar, the high probability of automatic driving leading to L3 and above puts forward extremely high and difficult requirements for the computing ability under the pure vision scheme, At the same time, with the continuous innovation of solutions and technologies represented by multi-sensor fusion such as lidar, low-cost solutions have gradually become possible. We are optimistic about its high development potential as the core configuration of intelligent driving at L3 level and above.
Cost reduction promotes large-scale commercialization, and the 100 billion blue ocean market is expected: with the continuous landing of L3 automatic driving, lidar will continue to penetrate into the passenger car market. From the perspective of unit price trend, lidar technology continues to make iterative progress and large-scale commercial mass production can be expected in the future. It is expected that the price of lidar will drop from US $1500 / piece in 2021 to US $400 / piece in 2025. From the demand of lidar in the passenger car market, it is estimated that the global demand will increase from 190000 in 2021 to 27.04 million in 2025; China’s demand is expected to increase from 100000 in 2021 to 13.99 million in 2025. According to our calculation, in 2025, the market scale of lidar in the global and Chinese vehicle markets will be about US $12.7 billion and US $6.6 billion respectively, and the CAGR of the two markets will be close to 150% from 2021 to 2025.
The technology path is in the state of contention among hundreds of schools of thought. At present, it is still dominated by the semi-solid-state lidar with 905nm wavelength and TOF ranging mode. It is suggested to pay attention to the development trend of solid-state lidar with 1550nm wavelength and FMCW ranging mode in the future: there are many technology paths of on-board lidar, and the core focus is whether to pass the vehicle regulations and cost. According to the scanning mode, there are mainly three types of lidar: mechanical, semi-solid and solid. At present, the semi-solid mode occupies the mainstream position because of its lower cost compared with the mechanical scheme and meeting the requirements of vehicle regulations. In the long run, the solid-state scheme uses semiconductor technology to integrate some core components of the lidar into the chip to further reduce the volume. With the further maturity of the pure solid-state scheme in the future, It is expected to be commercialized and adopted on a large scale. By ranging method: TOF has superior performance, can overcome the distance limitation of triangular ranging method, and has higher accuracy. It is the mainstream application scheme of vehicle enterprises at present. FMCW theory has more significant advantages. Due to the high price caused by the technical threshold, it has not been mass produced yet. It is suggested to pay attention to its high development potential in the future. According to the laser emitting end: eel has high luminous power density, but high manual assembly and adjustment technical requirements lead to high cost. VCSEL using semiconductor processing equipment can ensure accuracy and quality consistency. Multilayer junction VCSEL lasers developed by many VCSEL laser companies outside China can solve the problem of low luminous density and power. We are optimistic about the development of eel to VCSEL, In addition, as a good development prospect of performance integration of the two integration schemes, pcsel is recommended to pay attention to its commercialization process in the future. According to laser detection: at present, APD technology is mature and is the most widely used detector. SPAD / SIPM can solve the problems of photon detection efficiency, low working voltage requirements and manufacturing with mature CMOS semiconductor process, which makes it have cost advantages. It is optimistic about the trend from Pd / APD to spad / SIPM. According to the information processing mode, the mainstream scheme is FPGA. With the development of line array and area array scale in the future and the gradual upgrading of CMOS process nodes, the SOC at the single photon receiving end will have stronger computing power, lower power consumption and higher integration. It is optimistic about the long-term development of SOC.
Domestic brands in the upstream of the industrial chain welcome development opportunities: the upstream of lidar is mainly optical and electronic component manufacturers. At present, European and American manufacturers, the leading component suppliers, have entered the market earlier and are at the leading level. Overseas leaders monopolize the upstream chip market. Domestic brands in the field of transceiver and optical components rise. The future prospect is optimistic. There are rich investment opportunities in the fields of laser transmitters, detectors and scanning components in the upstream industrial chain. The middle reaches of lidar are mainly manufacturers of lidar integrated products. Due to the relatively high barrier of lidar and the lack of convergence of technical route, the competition pattern of global lidar is still relatively scattered, and overseas manufacturers have the first mover advantage. For example, Valeo (Valeo) of French tier 1 company, as the first manufacturer in the world to release vehicle specification lidar Valeo Scala and realize mass production, ranks first in the world with 28% market share. In addition, China’s top players such as China’s Sagitar juchuang, Dajiang, tudaton, Huawei and Hesai also made breakthroughs. The main downstream application fields of lidar are driverless, advanced auxiliary driving, Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , Internet of vehicles, surveying and mapping, high-precision map, consumer service industry, etc. at present, the shortage of production capacity leads to short supply. The manufacturer of lidar has strong pricing power in the downstream, and the overall profit space of the industry is large.
Investment suggestion: we believe that with the advent of the first year of commercial use of lidar and the acceleration of the overall volume rhythm, relevant suppliers in the upstream of the industrial chain and manufacturers of complete sets of lidar in the midstream will significantly benefit from the high-profile atmosphere of the lidar industry.
In particular, in the field of laser transmitters and optical components upstream of the industrial chain, the former has Chinese manufacturers who have gradually made some breakthroughs under the long-standing accumulation of overseas manufacturers such as Japan, Europe and the United States, and the latter has the leading cost advantage created by China’s mature industrial chain. Midstream machine manufacturers have also launched competitive products with the advantage of late development, which has been designated by many car enterprises.
1) there is a strong certainty of benefits in the upstream component field of the industrial chain. It is suggested to pay attention to:
Laser transmitter end: the laser transmitter end accounts for a high proportion of the overall BOM cost of the lidar. Although Chinese laser suppliers have entered the market late, they have a rapid development momentum. It is suggested to pay attention to China’s leading suppliers of eel and VCSEL emission modules, such as torch technology, China’s leading Changguang Huaxin of high-power semiconductor laser chips, and Advanced Fiber Resources (Zhuhai) Ltd(300620) , a leading enterprise of fiber lasers.
Optical scanning components: the proportion of optical scanning components in the overall BOM cost of lidar is second only to the main board and laser transmitter. Relevant optical components have strong universality for different lidar technology paths, and China’s industrial chain of optical components such as lidar window, lens, rotating mirror, filter and collimator is mature. Compared with foreign countries, Chinese manufacturers have obvious cost advantages. Optical component suppliers who cooperate with midstream machine manufacturers and obtain the designated position of vehicle enterprises will benefit significantly. It is suggested to pay attention to such as Shun Yu optics, Ningbo Yong Xin Optics Co.Ltd(603297) , Optowide Technologies Co.Ltd(688195) , Lianchuang Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(002036) , etc.
2) due to the gradual rise of Chinese brands of complete machine manufacturers in the middle of the industrial chain, it is suggested to pay attention to:
The manufacturers of laser radar complete machine are mainly foreign companies such as velodyne, luminar, innovusion, innoviz, Valeo and continental group. The product competitiveness of Chinese midstream complete machine manufacturers is becoming more and more obvious. It is suggested to pay attention to Hesai technology, Suteng juchuang, which has high cost performance and expands from mechanical to semi-solid lidar products, Huawei with rapid development process, Vanjee Technology Co.Ltd(300552) which has obtained mainstream commercial vehicle applications, etc.
Risk warning: the promotion rhythm of automatic driving is less than expected, the convergence of lidar technology path is less than expected, and the market demand of lidar is less than expected.
