Industry core view
Last week (from March 28 to April 3), the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.19%, the Shenwan social service index rose 2.96%, and the social service index outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.77 percentage points; In addition to professional services, the main sub sectors of social services generally rose: hotel catering 7.31%, tourism and scenic spots 4.86%, education 1.01%, professional services – 0.11% and sports 3.95%. The sales of duty-free shops in Hainan outlying islands increased year-on-year in the first quarter, but affected by the epidemic, the sales fell year-on-year in March. In addition, the recent outbreak in Hainan caused the temporary closure of major duty-free shops in Sanya. The resistance brought by the severe situation of the epidemic to the tourism retail industry may continue in the coming months. In recent years, the Ministry of culture and tourism issued the tourism relief policy, which will alleviate the survival pressure of tourism enterprises from ten aspects, and make greater efforts to help tourism enterprises reduce costs, stabilize operation and ensure employment. Qingming holiday starts this week. According to the order statistics of tuniu platform, short distance travel is still a popular choice for travel. In addition to traditional travel, the popularity of RV and camping products is rising, and the consumer market of related supplies and venues has great development potential. In terms of education, the National Smart education platform launched by the Ministry of education was officially launched. The platform integration and sharing of teaching resources not only made the exchange of educational resources more convenient, but also posed new challenges to the fee based education platform. The five departments have recently issued several opinions on the credit recognition of online open courses in Colleges and universities, which prohibit the behavior of “brushing”, “Replacing”, “brushing” and “Replacing” courses. It is expected that the compliant third-party online course platform will be more favored by colleges and universities, and the supervision of teaching process may become the key direction of platform optimization. The State Council recently decided that the expenditure on caring for infants and young children can be offset against individual income tax, the three child policy has been supported by continuous supporting policies, and the market demand for early education is expected to be further improved in the future.
1. Tourism: suggestions: 1) tax exemption leader with excellent and stable business performance and benefiting from policy support and channel advantages; 2) The performance leader benefiting from the recovery of passenger flow and consumption under the normalization of the epidemic; 3) Head travel agencies benefiting from the popularity of suburban travel, peripheral travel and more relaxed support policies; 4) A hotel leader with strong anti risk ability. 2. Education: vocational education and preschool education companies that actively transform and develop and meet the policy requirements.
Key investment points:
Industry related news: 1) Tourism: since this year, the sales of duty-free shops in Hainan outlying islands have exceeded 15 billion yuan, and the sales of duty-free shops in Hainan outlying islands fell year-on-year in March; Interpretation of the “ten relief measures” of the Ministry of culture and Tourism: release three positive signals; The epidemic situation in Hainan was sudden and severe, and the stores in Sanya were temporarily closed from April 2; Tuniu: during the Qingming Festival, the characteristics of “local people traveling locally” are prominent. 2) Online service platform for college students, including formal education, vocational education and higher education; Five departments: it is strictly prohibited for colleges and universities to “brush classes”, “replace classes”, “brush exams” and “replace exams” in online open courses; Personal income tax can be reduced for caring for infants under 3 years old, which is deducted according to the standard quota of 1000 yuan per month.
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Risk factors: 1. Risk of natural disasters and safety accidents. 2. Policy risk. 3. Investment, M & A and integration risk.
