Industry core view:
Under the macro background of "steady growth", the fundamentals of the real estate industry continue to stay at the bottom, and the marginal improvement policy continues. It is expected that there are still many favorable policies to be expected in the follow-up, and continue to be optimistic about the market performance of the real estate sector. Three types of enterprises are recommended: (1) property management companies with good fundamentals; (2) High quality real estate enterprises with financial stability and background of central enterprises / state-owned enterprises; (3) Real estate enterprises with high-quality holding properties or transformation enterprises, or effectively form a virtuous capital cycle of "development +".
Key investment points:
Market review last week: favorable policies continued to be released. Last week, the real estate index of Shenwan industry rose 10.82%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose 2.43%, and the performance of the real estate sector was significantly stronger than the market. Since 2022, the real estate industry has increased by 10.766%, and the CSI 300 index has decreased by 13.445%, with significant relative gains.
Key policy highlights: (1) Mianyang, Sichuan supports real estate development from three aspects: consumers, enterprises and market, and the maximum amount of housing provident fund loan is adjusted from the current Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) yuan to 700000 yuan; Propose financial subsidies for families with many children; Relax the image and progress requirements of commercial housing pre-sale; (2) Fuzhou "deregulates" the property market and liberalizes purchase restrictions; (3) Xiamen commercial housing pre-sale conditions relaxed; (4) The employees who pay the provident fund directly under Fujian Province can withdraw the provident fund to pay the down payment; (5) Quzhou, Zhejiang, became the first city in China where the purchase and sale restrictions were cancelled, and the minimum building area requirement for pre-sale was reduced from 30000 square meters to 20000 square meters; (6) Qinhuangdao lifted the purchase restriction, and buyers who purchased stock houses (second-hand houses) only provided their own valid identity documents when applying for purchase qualification verification; (7) Lanzhou clearly proposed to reduce the threshold for individual house purchase, increase the amount of provident fund loans, relax regional purchase restrictions and relax sales restrictions.
Industry fundamentals: sales have not improved yet, and the land market has improved month on month. From March 21 to March 27, the sales of commercial houses in 30 large and medium-sized cities fell by 48.08% year-on-year, including 44.53% in the first line, 49.57% in the second line and 48.52% in the third line; The supply and construction of residential land in Baicheng fell by - 12.7% year-on-year, 46.43% year-on-year, 76% year-on-year, and the premium rate of residential land in Baicheng was 5.3%, up 2.8 percentage points month on month. Last week, Chengdu, Chongqing and Wuhan completed the first batch of centralized land supply in 2022. The overall flow auction rate decreased, the premium rate increased, and the local auction market warmed up.
Key company dynamics: a number of companies have announced their performance in 2021, the performance of mainstream property management companies is outstanding, and the performance of most development real estate enterprises is poor; Vanke and Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) issued the announcement of planned repurchase; Last week, the popularity of domestic bond issuance remained high, and the leading real estate enterprises remained the main body of bond issuance. CNOOC issued China's largest green bonds. Last week, the total scale of bonds issued and proposed to be issued by CNOOC reached 8 billion yuan.
Risk factors: the policy strength is less than expected, the industry fundamentals continue to decline rapidly, and the credit risk is higher than expected.
