The valuation is low, so it is suggested to pay attention to the trading opportunities of securities companies
This week, the market continued to differentiate. On Friday, the market again showed a restless signal in the non bank financial sector, and the valuation of the securities sector fell to the low point of 1.45 times Pb. In the short term, the financial reports of securities companies in 2021 showed good business performance. The performance of leading securities companies was better than that of small and medium-sized securities companies, with outstanding performance robustness, China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) roe ranked first with 15.8%; The annual report data shows that the aggregation of investment advisers and insurance agency groups is far higher than that of other business lines, reflecting the attention of the wealth management sector and large investment banking business of head securities companies, and has certain first mover advantages. These two areas will also be the focus of securities companies’ business. Due to the weakness of the domestic securities industry, the average performance of Sailong’s wealth management sector may rebound due to the weakness of the domestic securities industry in 2022, and the average performance of Sailong’s wealth management sector may be lower than that of the previous year; Affected by the investment income, the year-on-year performance probability of traditional securities companies is under pressure. At present, the market basically reflects this expectation.
With the gradual disclosure of Q1 financial report and the acceleration of the average return of the market, the undervalued sectors such as finance may become winners and losers in the second quarter. In the medium term, the external risks of the market have increased this year. Investors are facing the dislocation of China US economic and financial cycles. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine will not change the tightening trend of the Federal Reserve, and the rhythm and path may change. However, we believe that a major conference will be held this year, and the government work report has shown its initiative. It is expected that the efforts to correct policy deviations will continue to increase, and more policies to stabilize growth and market will be introduced to promote the long-term development of the capital market and look forward to the follow-up upward space. We still suggest focusing on securities companies with outstanding wealth management transformation, rich business resources of the Beijing stock exchange and high-quality institutional business performance.
The valuation bottom of the insurance sector basically appeared, and time for space
According to the insurance industry data in February, the decline of life insurance narrowed, property insurance maintained a high increase, and the performance of listed insurance companies was significantly better than that of the industry. Specifically, the insurance industry’s accumulated original insurance premium income was 1296140 billion yuan, a year-on-year change of – 2.03% (compared with – 2.98% in the previous January); The original insurance premium income of property insurance companies was 265193 billion yuan, with a year-on-year change of + 12.27% (compared with + 12.34% in the previous January); The original premium income of life insurance companies was 1030.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year change of – 5.14% (compared with – 5.83% in the previous January). The growth rate of listed insurance companies recovered. The growth rate of CPIC and Xinhua premiums increased by + 3.5pct, + 1.6pct to 2.3% and 5.2% respectively compared with the previous month. PICC Life Insurance (excluding health insurance) continued to benefit from the contribution of new single payment orders, with a year-on-year increase of 26.4%; The growth rate of property insurance of listed insurance companies was strong and maintained a double-digit growth. The growth rate of accumulated property insurance premiums of PICC, CPIC and Ping An from January to February reached + 13.65%, + 15.66% and + 10.97% respectively, all faster than that of the previous month. Although life insurance is still in the transition period, facing the continuous impact of the epidemic and the pressure of new order sales, the worst time point has passed, and the marginal improvement trend reflected in the current data has now appeared; In terms of property insurance, PICC went deep into the market segments and Ping An continued to increase its high-quality personal business. At present, the inflection point of growth has been identified, and the growth rate has returned to the double-digit level, which is expected to promote the upward repair of the valuation of the sector. The asset side benefits from the stabilization of interest rates and the gradual release of risks in the real estate sector. Under the encouragement of policies, it is expected to increase the allocation of equity assets in the future. The industry pays attention to the track consistent with the policy direction, the steady growth of undervalued value, and the investment opportunities with the theme of steady growth. From the transaction level, the insurance sector has basically shown an undervalued value, and the P / EV of the main listed insurance companies is between 0.37-0.55 times. In the context of market style switching, the insurance sector is in line with the strategic choice of exchanging time for space.
In the future, the elderly care and health industry will become an important source of revenue and profit. Focusing on the layout of the health care industry, insurance enterprises are expected to benefit in the long term.
Risk tip: Sino US friction intensifies the risk; The risk of continued narrowing of interest rate spread between China and the United States; SEC suspends the risk of IPO registration of Chinese companies; Geopolitical risks; Macroeconomic downside risk; Evergrande’s handling of events is not as good as expected; The systematic decline risk of stock market; Stricter supervision of risks; Risk of continued spread of pneumonia
