Since February, the performance of the home appliance sector has been poor. On the one hand, affected by macro, real estate and other factors, the market lacks confidence in the follow-up demand performance of the industry. Especially since March, the epidemic has intensified, and the demand of the industry is still under pressure in the short term; On the other hand, affected by the geographical conflict, the price of raw materials rebounded month on month, causing some investors to worry about whether the follow-up profits of the industry can be repaired as scheduled. In addition, the capital outflow under the background of insufficient market confidence has further amplified the short-term fluctuation of stock price.
In this regard, we believe that although the periodic and repeated epidemic has indeed suppressed consumer demand and logistics and transportation, the current industry leaders have shown strong resilience and highlighted their strong anti risk ability; White power blue chip Midea and Haier are expected to achieve high single digit revenue growth in the first quarter, and it is worth mentioning that their export performance is stable, Midea's b-end increment and Haier's Casati are quite bright spots; In addition, there are many representatives of growth targets. The income of Qingdao Hiron Commercial Cold Chain Co.Ltd(603187) January February increased by more than 40%, and the growth rate of integrated stove stocks Zhejiang Entive Smart Kitchen Appliance Co.Ltd(300911) , Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) and Chengdu Xgimi Technology Co.Ltd(688696) , Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) and other companies was also significantly better than that of the industry as a whole; From the perspective of the whole year, the impact of the epidemic is expected to continue to weaken. Under the background of low base, we are not pessimistic about the follow-up boom of the industry.
In terms of profitability, since 2021q2, the second-order inflection point of raw material price has been established, and the average price of some bulk raw materials has even declined year-on-year at the end of the year. Under this background, the market has high expectations for the follow-up profit restoration of the household appliance industry; However, recently, the average prices of raw materials, especially aluminum and crude oil, have risen again. We believe that, on the one hand, there is still a significant gap between the current price increase and sustainability of raw materials (especially copper and steel, the main raw materials for the production of household appliances) and the second quarter of last year. On the other hand, after last year's adjustment, the overall profitability base of the household appliance industry has been significantly lower than that in normal years since the second quarter, and the average terminal price of the superimposed industry is still in the upward channel, We judge that the subsequent profit improvement trend of the home appliance industry is still worth looking forward to, and the annual performance growth in 2022 is still expected to lead the revenue growth. In addition, from the performance of leading enterprises in the first quarter, the real profit level is in steady repair, and the subsequent business flexibility is more worthy of expectation.
Further considering that after the recent adjustment, the overall institutional position of the household appliance sector is expected to have fallen to a historical low, and the valuation adjustment of individual stocks has been extremely sufficient, it is recommended to actively allocate high-quality stocks with strong operational stability, and the white power track continues to focus on recommending Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) , Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) , Qingdao Hiron Commercial Cold Chain Co.Ltd(603187) ; The kitchen electric circuit continues to recommend Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) , Zhejiang Entive Smart Kitchen Appliance Co.Ltd(300911) , Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) ; Small household electrical appliances track pays attention to Zhejiang Supor Co.Ltd(002032) , Chengdu Xgimi Technology Co.Ltd(688696) , Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) .
Risk tips
Less than expected terminal demand;
The price of raw materials fluctuates greatly;
Large scale price competition occurs in the industry.
