Market review: the index fluctuated at a low level, and the steel building decoration real estate rose the highest. Today, the index fluctuated at a low level. As of the close, the Shanghai index rose 0.02% to 328343, the Shenzhen index fell 0.45% to 1217291, and the gem index fell 1.24% to 263391 SSE 50 fell 0.41% and CSI 1000 fell 0.12%. In terms of sectors, steel (4.1%), architectural decoration (3.39%) and real estate (2.76%) led the increase, while power equipment (- 2.51%), electronics (- 2.05%) and national defense industry (- 1.44%) led the decrease. The turnover of the two cities was 966059 billion yuan, an increase of 3.26% over the previous trading day and 4.16% over the previous five days. Northbound funds sold a net 5.321 billion yuan throughout the day, including 2.510 billion yuan for Shanghai Stock connect and 2.811 billion yuan for Shenzhen Stock connect.
Market focus: the tourism data of Qingming Festival holiday is flat
During the Qingming holiday in 2022, 75.419 million people traveled in China, a year-on-year decrease of 26.2%, and recovered to 68% in the same period in 2019 according to comparable standards; The tourism revenue reached 18.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 30.9%, and recovered to 39.2% in the same period in 2019; The estimated customer unit price is 250.4 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.06% and recovery to 41.44% in the same period in 2019. During the Qingming Festival holiday, the total number of passengers sent by railways, highways, waterways and civil aviation across the country is expected to be 53.781 million, a decrease of 62.7% over the same period in 2021 and 9.8% over the same period in 2020. Among them, the railway is expected to send 6.229 million passengers, a decrease of 83.7% over the same period in 2021 and 45.2% over the same period in 2020; The highway is expected to send 46.34 million passengers, a decrease of 53.2% over the same period in 2021 and an increase of 42.5% over the same period in 2020; The waterway is expected to send 650000 passengers, a decrease of 77% compared with the same period in 2021 and 42.5% in 2020; Civil aviation is expected to send 562000 passengers, down 87% from the same period in 2021 and 53.8% in 2020.
Strategy suggestion: continue to pay attention to the overall value of defense attributes
The index fluctuated at a low level today, and the Shanghai stock market closed slightly red. There are still more than 3200 stocks rising in the two markets. The net inflow of main funds was 1.021 billion yuan, mainly into themes such as real estate and medicine.
In terms of the general trend of a shares, the impact of the epidemic on China's economy has begun to be gradually reflected in the economic data. The recovery trend in the first quarter is difficult to continue. It is expected that it will cool again in the second quarter, and the middle and downstream industries are facing greater cost pressure. However, the national standing committee meeting once again established the policy bottom, and the intensity of policy easing is expected to increase.
In the short term, under the influence of the continuous fermentation of the epidemic in China, the market fluctuation may intensify, and the main line of funds is not clear. The external market may continue to adjust after the tightening cycle is opened, which may have a resonant impact on the A-share market. Therefore, the current market value may have a better defensive ability. From the perspective of stock bond spread (reciprocal P / E ratio - 10-year Treasury bond yield), at present, A-Shares are in the historical quantile of 76.01%, the market value is in the historical quantile of 89.03%, while the market growth is 19.54%, and the value allocation attribute of the market is prominent. In the expectation of unabated inflationary pressure and steady growth, the upstream sector is expected to gain better performance, but it also suggests that the impact of events such as geographical conflicts on asset prices is mostly short-term. In the second quarter, the market may hit the bottom twice and there will be a period of better allocation opportunities. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the marginal changes of the industry boom and structural valuation adjustment, and focus on opportunities in topics such as infrastructure real estate and digital economy with strong policy support.
Risk tip: the macro-economy is less than expected, the national epidemic is more than expected, and the geopolitical risk is intensified.
