The market adjusted significantly in the first quarter of 2022, mainly due to the impact of external events. The agency believes that from the perspective of the general trend, the overall market is still stable, and the repair of market sentiment will bring the driving force for the recovery of the market, which is expected to become the main tone of the market in the second quarter. Some institutions also believe that the price earnings ratio valuation of the A-share market is at a historical low, and the medium and long-term funds usher in a better layout time point.
Caixin Securities:
market opportunities outweigh risks
The performance of A-Shares is under pressure, but the policy and liquidity may exceed expectations. China's GDP is expected to grow by about 5.5% this year. There is a possibility that the follow-up monetary policy, infrastructure and real estate will be stronger than expected. It is not pessimistic about the market in the second quarter.
Under the background of Chinese residents' savings moving and the accelerated listing of high-quality assets under the registration system, A-Shares are ushering in a new era of long bull and slow bull. At present, the valuation of P / E ratio of A-share market is at a historical low, and the medium and long-term funds usher in a better layout time point. It is expected that the market will be in the shock and bottom grinding stage from March to April. Considering the great pressure on the performance of A-share this year, it is expected that the market probability will show a U-shaped trend this year, and the bottom ratio is relatively flat.
Combined with the current macro environment and the fundamentals of a shares, it is expected that the probability of a trend market in the second quarter of 2022 is small, and the focus can grasp structural opportunities. Suggestions: 1. Cash assets. For example: high dividend and high dividend assets such as coal, real estate, banks, (Chinese prefix) construction, hydropower and communication operators; 2. Independent of the macroeconomic cycle, the dilemma reversed the sector. For example, the pig breeding sector with the reversal of industrial cycle; 3. A sector with booming production and marketing. In the next 1-2 quarters, the performance improvement expectations from strong to weak are: national defense and military industry, household appliances, transportation, communication and computer; 4. New energy and other track stocks. New energy and other track stocks are still in the stage of industrial explosion, and there are still certain investment opportunities, focusing on track stocks with performance support.
\u3000\u3000 Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788)
first quarterly report will be a watershed
From the perspective of profitability, the first quarter may still be the relative high point of the whole year, and the profit growth rate may continue to decline after the second quarter. China's macro liquidity is expected to continue to be loose, and the restrictions of overseas tightening on China are not very obvious. However, compared with macro liquidity, the change of micro liquidity in financial markets is more worrying. Overseas scale reduction may bring greater uncertainty to the liquidity of short-term financial markets, while the continued downturn in the issuance of Chinese funds and due redemptions may put pressure on the liquidity of the stock market in the second quarter.
The first quarterly report may become a watershed in the market. The market may have a relatively positive performance in April. On the one hand, quarterly results are still the supporting factor of the market, on the other hand, policies and other factors will also promote the repair of risk appetite. However, after the first quarterly report, the market may face some downward pressure. Under the downward pressure of profits, it is difficult for the market to have a positive performance, and the inflection point may not appear until the bottom of the economy. The upward opportunity comes from the improvement of risk appetite brought by the easing of China US relations.
Focus on the direction that is expected to exceed expectations. The short-term quarterly report exceeds the expectation, and individual stocks may have a good performance. In the medium term, pay attention to the industries that are expected to exceed the expectation. According to the two-dimensional model of the industry exceeding expectations, it is recommended to choose stable industries in the period of economic downturn. We recommend two main lines: steady growth (building, building materials, real estate, real estate chain, etc.) and consumption (Baijiu, medicine, household appliances, retail, etc.).
\u3000\u3000 Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750)
market from bottom of policy to bottom of market
When the global supply chain repair process is blocked, the advantage of China's export substitution effect is expected to continue, but it is more difficult to "stabilize exports" in the follow-up. Considering that the economies of some European and American countries are still in the recovery range, and the vaccination of some developing countries is relatively backward, resulting in the slow recovery process of the supply chain, in the short term, the advantage of China's export substitution effect is still expected to continue. With the gradual peaking of demand in major developed countries under the tightening policy and the repair of supply chains in emerging markets, the superposition of geographical conflicts will lead to rising costs, which will have a negative impact on China's future exports.
Capital + project side two-way support, and infrastructure investment is expected to maintain a high growth rate in the second quarter. On the capital side, the pre issuance of local special bonds, the expected landing of bank supporting credit funds and the abundant investment funds in the central budget during the year have formed a continuous support for infrastructure investment. On the project side, the new special bonds from January to February are mainly invested in the old infrastructure projects represented by rail transit, and the 800 billion yuan water conservancy investment mentioned at the national Standing Committee in March is expected to promote the formation of physical workload of infrastructure investment in the second quarter.
The real estate market will still be adjusted, and the strength of policy care is expected to increase. Under the background of the impact of the epidemic and the debt risk of real estate enterprises has not been fully released, the real estate situation is expected to remain severe in the second quarter. Considering that real estate is still a key variable for economic stabilization, it is expected that the policy care will be strengthened in the second quarter, the national real estate regulation framework is expected to be difficult to change, and the local policies are expected to be further loosened. Focus on the relevant statements of the Politburo meeting in April.
Monetary policy in the second quarter may maintain structural easing, and quantitative policy tools are still expected. Considering that China has not implemented interest rate reduction in the Fed's interest rate increase cycle in history, the probability of using price tools decreased in the second quarter. Under the limited space for interest rate reduction, the priority of "precise force" in the second quarter was improved, and the force of quantitative tools is still worth looking forward to.
In the context of the continued weakness of the demand side, it is necessary to maintain a certain expenditure intensity of the fiscal policy in the second quarter, and it is expected that the issuance rhythm of local special bonds will remain stable. In addition, the 1.5 trillion yuan VAT rebate arrangement will be officially implemented from April, and the structural fiscal policy is expected to continue to be implemented.
Under the background of obvious contraction of valuation in the first quarter, the stock market deduces the bottom grinding stage from the bottom of policy to the bottom of market. The performance of listed companies is facing downward pressure in the quarter. The valuation changes are affected by the tightening of the Federal Reserve. The subsequent valuation expansion comes from the credit recovery and the bottom of economic confirmation. There are three clues for structural opportunities: steady growth, post cycle and business growth segmentation.
Reporter Zhang Jian
