On April 6, the 2022 spring strategy meeting of Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Research Institute was held online. A number of investment researchers from Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Research Institute, such as the total amount, configuration and industry, published the latest research and judgment on the current economic and market trends.
The spring strategy meeting is also the debut of Fang Yi, chief strategy analyst of Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Research Institute. As for the investment direction in the next stage, Fang Yi said that opportunities may be in stocks with low-risk characteristics, and the low-risk characteristics focus on cycle and consumption. suggested configuring three main investment lines: public investment, pro inflation and high dividend and dilemma reversal
economic bottom is not reached,
steady growth rhythm in two waves
In the part of macroeconomic interpretation, Dong Qi, chief macroeconomic analyst of Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Research Institute, pointed out that the current economy is still in the bottom stage, and the most optimistic situation is the success of the bottom in the middle and late second quarter. The impact of this round of epidemic on the economy still needs to be carefully evaluated. The impact in the first quarter is concentrated on the consumer side. Be alert to the short-term drag on the investment side in the second quarter. Based on the assumption that the epidemic fell in the second quarter, it dragged down the economy by 0.2-0.5 percentage points throughout the year. This means that if we adhere to the established goal of “5.5%”, the investment side policy is still expected to face the possibility of upward revision.
“At present, in the case of overseas disturbance and weak terminal demand, the redistribution of profits between the upstream and downstream is interrupted again, but the expected peak value of the upstream raw material price shock is basically in the past. We should pay attention to the areas where there are difficulties and reversal opportunities in the middle and downstream in the future.” Dong Qi said.
Dong Qi believes that in the process of economic weakness, the steady growth policy takes the form of two waves throughout the year, and the second quarter is the second wave of warming window period. The correction and adjustment of the real estate market will be further accelerated, and the policy environment will be improved. In the force of “real estate before consumption”, the fiscal policy cycle will maintain an upward slope. At the same time, it is still possible for the monetary policy to reduce reserve requirements and interest rates.
“But we still need to be vigilant about the liquidity trap in the short term.” In Dong Qi’s view, in the current state of weakening expectations, the effectiveness of stable growth of monetary policy needs to be carefully evaluated. Meanwhile, the uncertainty of the external situation remained high in the second quarter. Based on the macro fundamentals, it is suggested to pay attention to three main lines:
First, new and old infrastructure (construction and building materials) under steady growth;
Second, the second wave of steady growth supports the difficulties brought by real estate and consumption;
Third, focus on the global primary product supply chain (crude oil, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) ) and Chinese pricing varieties (coal, steel and chemical industry) in the overlapping cycle of steady growth and energy consumption.
investment opportunities in stocks with low risk characteristics
In terms of general trend research and judgment, Fang Yi, chief strategy analyst of Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Research Institute, said that the next quarter will be dominated by sideways shocks. It is recommended that investors maintain an “empty cup” mentality and don’t be persistent in “cattle”.
Fang Yi said that the current rebound trading in the A-share market is that the expectation of short-term risk will not be worse. There are still constraints from “not worse” to “getting better” in fundamental expectation. Therefore, the current market is more rebound than reversal. “Spring will eventually come, but before the demand side policy and credit easing path are clear, do a good job of defensive counterattack, not trend counterattack.”
In Fang Yi’s view, the current market pricing is in the decline of profit expectation and the high fluctuation of discount rate expectation. Specifically, in terms of molecular side profit, the negative pressure of profit growth in the second quarter increased, and the expected visibility of bottom time and rhythm decreased; In terms of risk-free interest rate, the need for liquidity between enterprises and residents has increased, the risk-free interest rate has increased, and the market has entered the game of stock and contraction from increment; In addition, geopolitical and profit prospects are blurred, risk assessment increases and risk appetite decreases.
During the rebound, Fang Yi suggested that investors should actively change positions. Investors’ risk appetite decreases, from chasing risk to risk aversion, so investment opportunities are in stocks with low-risk characteristics. The preference for profit is no longer long-term space, but emphasizes the certainty of growth, and the value is better than growth. Growth may rebound, but the economic cycle fluctuations make its demand also dust. On the contrary, the divergence of stable growth will make it easier for the sector sensitive to the economic cycle to exceed expectations, and the lower valuation and the improvement of supply side concentration will also be more favorable.
In terms of industry allocation, Fang Yi said that the low-risk characteristics focus on cycle and consumption, recommends three main lines of public investment, inflation and dilemma reversal : first, the certainty of public investment, which can focus on photovoltaic, wind power, power grid and construction; Second, inflation and high dividend certainty, we can pay attention to coal and chemical resources; The three is the reverse of the dilemma, which can be concerned about the middle reaches of pig, Baijiu, consumer services, and consumer building materials.
hit the new revenue less than expected,
the game between the buyer and the seller intensifies
since this year, with the increase in the proportion of the number of new shares broken, the future development of new income has attracted more and more attention from the majority of investors
In this regard, Wang Zhengzhi, chief analyst of new shares of Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Research Institute, believes that from the situation in the first quarter, the average full-scale rose sharply to around 600 million yuan. At the same time, with the reduction of the proportion of high tick and the improvement of quotation dispersion, the risk of small-scale accounts being high tick has weakened. It is suggested that the overall scale of new products should be controlled at 500-1 billion yuan, which can make effective use of funds and relatively reduce the pressure caused by the decline of bottom positions.
In addition, Wang Zhengzhi also said that due to the strong uncertainty of the external environment, the fluctuation and downward pressure of the equity market have been large since 2022. In order to prevent excessive drag on the bottom position, it is suggested that the market value of the controlled equity position should not be too high.
Wang Zhengzhi pointed out that since the implementation of the new rules for inquiry of new shares on September 18 last year, new share breaks have appeared one after another. Since 2022, the proportion of new share breaks has increased, and the performance of individual stocks has been significantly differentiated on the first day. The negative income contribution of breaking projects reaches nearly 50% of the positive income of non breaking projects. The poor behavior of stock selection will greatly affect the new income of accounts. “The first day performance of new shares is affected by market sentiment, company fundamentals, issuance valuation, issuance market value, issuance price and other factors. It is necessary to strengthen the investment and research of new shares and select the best stocks in combination with various factors.”
Wang Zhengzhi further said that the high tick ratio of 1% is adopted for the issuance of new shares after the new regulations. Under the participation accounts of about 10000 households in the whole market, the actual number of high tick accounts is about 100, which is not much as a whole. This also makes some accounts shortlisted by “free riding” at high prices, which raises the overall quotation center to a certain extent, and the valuation of new share issuance has been at a high level for a long time. If the high rejection ratio is increased, it may change the existing quotation ecology to a certain extent. It is suggested to pay close attention to the implementation of rules and systems.
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