The latest strategic views of the top ten securities companies are fresh, as follows:
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : second centralized policy to grasp the medium-term repair trend
The epidemic unexpectedly affected the pace of steady growth, and the urgency of policy overweight increased significantly in the second quarter. It is expected that the steady growth policy will shift from full deployment to centralized development. A number of pessimistic expectations in the market will bottom out in advance before the fundamentals. Since the second quarter, the negative impact of the economy on the market is weakening. It is suggested to grasp the trend of mid-term repair in the second and third quarters and firmly layout the “two low” varieties. First of all, the epidemic in many parts of the country in March offset the effect of the steady growth measures and broke the original policy rhythm. It is expected that the impact of the epidemic on the economy will continue in the second quarter, and the steady growth policy needs to be strengthened urgently. Secondly, the main problems of the current economy are more prominent. It is expected that the policy will shift from comprehensive deployment to precise and centralized force. After this round of epidemic is effectively controlled, it is expected that the prevention and control measures will be further adjusted to reduce the impact on the economy in the future. Finally, the pessimistic economic expectation has reached the extreme. The economic probability in the second quarter showed a trend of first restraining and then rising. The positions and position structure of investors have been fully adjusted. The selling pressure in the A-share market has been significantly released. The peak of concern about overseas risk factors has passed. There has been positive progress on Russia Ukraine issues and China probability regulation issues.
In terms of configuration, it is suggested to stick to the main line of steady growth, pay attention to the real estate industry chain, and continue the layout around “two low levels”, including: 1) varieties with relatively low valuation, it is suggested to pay attention to high-quality developers, property management and building materials enterprises after the expected mitigation of real estate credit risk, communication operators with significantly improved cash flow, smart grids and energy storage in the field of new infrastructure, and data centers and cloud infrastructure benefiting from “computing from the East and the west”, It is a fine chemical enterprise with the ability to develop new businesses such as new materials. 2) For the varieties whose fundamentals are expected to be relatively low, focus on the allocation opportunities of midstream manufacturing suppressed by cost problems after commodity prices peak, such as smart cars and parts, photovoltaic wind power equipment, etc. the airlines, hotels and department stores whose fundamentals are expected to be still low. In addition, the recent focus can be focused on a quarterly expected to exceed expected varieties, and it is suggested that focus on photovoltaic, semiconductor, Baijiu, Chinese medicine and construction sectors.
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) : the recovery of risk appetite is slow, and the main line switching of the market will still be frequent
Looking forward to April, first, it is expected that the risk appetite of A-Shares is expected to be maintained under the main tone of the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee. Second, under the influence of poor market sentiment and no improvement signal of incremental funds, the main line switching of the market is expected to be frequent. It is suggested to continue to maintain balanced allocation and refine it.
From the medium and long-term perspective, we are still optimistic about the three main lines of the third stage of growth style (main line + diffusion), stable growth (new and old infrastructure, real estate and Banking) and consumption recovery (medicine, price rise main line and travel chain). However, in the short-term dimension, under the frequent switching of market hotspots, we suggest that the configuration should be more refined. Specifically: 1) the stable growth chain has high short-term cost performance, and can continue to participate in the upstream and downstream of real estate Banks and new and old infrastructure. 2) In the medium and short term, we can continue to participate in the opportunities related to the main line of medicine and price increase (planting industry / chemical fertilizer). Before the inflection point of the epidemic, the travel chain (Airport / hotel / catering, etc.) is mainly concerned. 3) For the growth style, it is suggested to adjust the growth main line of power equipment, electronics and other industries.
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) : the market is at the bottom of the medium-term range, or ushers in a small and medium-sized growth moment
There is no need to worry about whether there is a market bottom after the policy bottom. The current market is in the medium-term bottom range. According to the experience of “policy bottom market bottom” in history, the market bottom appeared around February after the policy end, but this time the important difference is that the performance inflection point may come faster. The bottom probability of the current round of A-share enterprise profits is in the second quarter. The reason is that China’s economy basically presents the characteristics of “credit bottom – economic bottom – low price”. This round of credit bottom has been seen in the third quarter of last year. The high probability of economic bottom is also in the first quarter of this year. The price bottom represented by PPI will also be approaching. It is expected that the fastest downward stage of PPI will be in the first half of the year. Then, considering the economic bottom (actual variable) and price bottom (price factor), the bottom probability of enterprise profit is in the second quarter.
In the second quarter, the core factors affecting the market may show positive changes: A-share performance may usher in an inflection point; The most serious stage of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine may have passed; China EU and China US relations have shown positive changes; The Fed is expected to raise interest rates more fully. Will the US debt crisis be narrowed after the US interest rate spreads narrowed in 2000 and 2007? Or is it just a short-lived impact like 2019? Answering this question also needs to return to the fundamentals of the US economy and the core drivers of US stocks. At present, the core driving factor of US stocks has gradually shifted from loose policy to strong performance. Although inflation is at a high level, the US economy is still in the stage of upward peaking.
It is preferred to underestimate the value under the defensive idea, but when A-Shares change from defensive to offensive, A-Shares may usher in a small and medium-sized growth moment. Industry configuration: 1) stabilization and recovery of new energy sector; 2) The rise of TMT; 3) Pay attention to the short-term and fast opportunities of securities companies.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) : rebound rather than reverse, Shanghai 31003400 sideways fluctuation
The real estate, Shanghai epidemic and the risk expectation of Chinese stocks are converging, which is the core driving force to promote the rebound at the bottom of the stock market. Rebound rather than reverse, Shanghai 31003400 sideways shock. Embrace the new main line: inflation / public investment / dilemma reversal.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) : pit filling market is in progress, and continue to pay close attention to the main line of steady growth
The factors that triggered this round of market adjustment were the Fed’s interest rate hike, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the rebound of the Chinese epidemic. The three negative factors gradually disappeared. The implementation of the steady growth policy is expected to drive the market repair. This year, the fundamentals and policies are more like 12 years, the stock market is more like 16 years, and the pit filling market is in progress. Continue to pay close attention to the main line of steady growth, such as financial real estate and new infrastructure (photovoltaic wind power and big data cloud computing), which is more flexible.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) : the market is in the U-shaped bottom area, waiting for policy easing
The current epidemic situation and policy strength are still two important macro variables affecting the market. The difference is: in addition to the epidemic, the current market is also disturbed by risk factors such as the decline of China’s own economic operation cycle, geographical conflicts and the increase of interest rates by overseas Federal Reserve. Generally speaking, we believe that the current market is in the U-shaped bottom area, waiting for policy easing. It is difficult for A-Shares to continue to attack in the short term. It needs a period of shock to build the bottom and wait for the environment to gradually improve. Structural opportunities need to be verified by the first quarterly report.
The next stage of the market will focus on the layout of the epidemic rehabilitation + policy combination, and the specific industry allocation: 1) optional consumption, tax exemption, Baijiu and automobiles. 2) Growth preferred medicine (CXO, traditional Chinese medicine, etc.), military industry, photovoltaic.
Minsheng Securities: the policy bottom is basically proved, and the upward probability of shock is high after grinding the bottom
Inflation is becoming unstoppable. Chinese investors focus more on the more definite contradiction between supply and demand, while ignoring the broader opportunities such as the rise of physical assets and energy arbitrage under inflation expectations, which obviously lags behind the overseas market.
Inflation trading will spread to a wider dimension, and we estimate that there is still much room for the valuation of upstream resource products to rise. In terms of specific configuration, the upstream is still a relatively more dominant sector, and the best tool for demand recovery is in the real estate sector: first, copper, aluminum, gold, coal, oil and gas, agriculture (planting and chemical fertilizer); Second, pay attention to the opportunities under the reconstruction of trade pattern: oil transportation, dry bulk transportation; Third, on the main line of steady growth, we should give up the simple mapping of 20162017 and look for industries whose supply has been cleared in the previous downward cycle: real estate, and the layout of regional and structural expansion: banks (local, county and township) and construction.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) : emotional repair continues, focusing on three directions
“Policy bottom” + “market bottom” has emerged. At present, it is still an emotional repair window, with index shock consolidation, focusing on structure.
Structurally, it focuses on three directions: real estate + high dividend + the first quarterly report is higher than expected. 1) Real estate (state-owned enterprise real estate and trust): on the one hand, the relaxation of real estate policy is expected to continue to heat up, which is expected to drive the further repair of state-owned enterprise real estate valuation. On the other hand, the gradual resolution of real estate credit risk also brings opportunities for backwardness and make-up of relevant targets. In addition, we can also focus on trusts that benefit from both policy easing expectations and real estate credit risk mitigation. 2) High dividends (banks and securities companies): on the one hand, the global market is still in a chaotic situation of high volatility. On the other hand, the expectation of China’s policy relaxation continues to heat up. High dividend sectors such as banks and securities companies are both safe and policy driven, and can attack and retreat. 3) The first quarterly report exceeded expectations (semiconductor, chemical industry, military industry, medicine, nonferrous metals and coal): the sectors with better than expected performance in the quarterly report period generally performed better. At present, among the stocks that disclose the first quarterly report in advance and win in advance, the disclosure rate of semiconductor, chemical industry, military industry, medicine, nonferrous metals and coal is high, and the overall probability of the sector exceeding expectations is high.
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) : the policy bottom has been basically proved, and the upward probability of shock after grinding bottom is high
Since March, A-Shares have continued to adjust, mainly due to the turmoil in Russia and Ukraine, the shift of the Fed’s monetary policy and concerns about the local epidemic. On the one hand, the repeated epidemic restricts investors’ risk appetite, on the other hand, it will lead to the revision of enterprise profit expectations, especially the middle and downstream enterprises are facing the dual pressure of the epidemic and the rise of raw material prices. In the future, maintaining the stable operation of the economy in the first quarter and the first half of the year is very important to achieve the annual goal. The “steady growth” policy needs to continue to be overweight to hedge the impact of the epidemic, and there is still room for reducing reserve requirements and interest rates in the second quarter. In April, the Politburo meeting will be held, and the main tone of “steady growth” is expected to be maintained to consolidate the “bottom of the market” of a shares. In April, the industry configuration was based on defense and counterattack, and the style was moderately balanced:
1) mainly sectors with undervalued value, high dividends and benefiting from stable growth policies, such as “banks, real estate, building materials”, etc; 2) Give consideration to some growth sectors with high elasticity of performance, such as “new energy (photovoltaic, energy storage, hydrogen energy), semiconductor, East West calculation”, etc.
Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) : the market may hit the bottom twice in the second quarter, and there will be a period of better configuration opportunities
In the short term, under the influence of the continuous fermentation of China’s epidemic, the market fluctuation may intensify, and the main line of funds is not clear. The external market may continue to adjust after the tightening cycle is opened, which may have a resonant impact on the A-share market. Therefore, the current undervalued large cap stocks may have better defense ability. It is suggested to avoid the short-term impact of inflation expectation and the irrational pursuit of price in the upstream sector, but it is expected to avoid the impact of short-term inflation. In the second quarter, the market may hit the bottom again, and there will be a period of better allocation opportunities. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the marginal changes in the industry boom and structural valuation adjustment, and focus on opportunities in infrastructure real estate, digital economy, new energy and other topics with strong policy support.
Industry configuration is optimistic: (1) real estate sector. The marginal relaxation of real estate policy can be expected. After full adjustment, the real estate industry will switch from the early stage of barbaric development to the stage of orderly growth. The leading central enterprises with healthy asset liability structure are expected to show better performance in valuation repair. (2) Pharmaceutical sector. The epidemic situation in China will continue in the short term, the heat of covid-19 specific drugs and antigen detection will not decrease, and the growth potential of traditional Chinese medicine and innovative drugs is relatively good. It is suggested to focus on it. (3) New energy sector. Boosted by the industrial logic, the new energy sector is expected to maintain a high boom level. Under the background of the recent rise in prices in the middle and upper reaches, the terminal consumption is still strong, reflecting the strong support on the demand side, and it is expected to regain the allocation cost performance after the valuation adjustment.
