Are waiting for the opening of a shares.
A shares are about to usher in the first trading day after the Qingming Festival. From the perspective of peripheral markets, investors may expect more from the performance of A-Shares after the opening. First, Hong Kong stocks staged a major counterattack. The Hang Seng technology index rose by more than 5% in a single day, and the Internet technology sector rose collectively; In addition, European and American stock markets also rose more or fell less, and the trend of China concept stocks is particularly strong.
during the Qingming Festival, the epidemic situation in China is also one of the focus of market concern. At present, the epidemic situation in Shanghai is still high and the situation is relatively severe. However, in the past week, the overall epidemic situation in the country has tended to improve, and some high-frequency indicators have also shown signs of stabilization and recovery. Some institutions believe that after the current round of epidemic is controlled, steady growth is expected to become one of the most important tasks in the next stage. A shares will gradually reverse the decline in April, and there will be a turning point from defense to attack
Specific to the sector, the performance of real estate and new energy track after the festival may be worth looking forward to. During the holiday, Lanzhou, Gansu Province issued stimulus policies such as canceling purchase restrictions and reducing the proportion of down payment, and continued to increase the easing of house purchase; In addition, the new energy giant Byd Company Limited(002594) officially announced that it would stop the production of complete fuel vehicles from March 2022, and the cumulative sales of Byd Company Limited(002594) new energy vehicles surged by 423% in the first March of this year.
Technology counter attack
During the Qingming Festival, the overseas market strengthened as a whole, especially the Hong Kong stock market staged a major counterattack, which brought some expectations to the A shares that are about to open.
First, let’s look at Hong Kong stocks. The market opened normally on April 4 and closed on April 5. Hong Kong stocks staged a strong market of comprehensive counterattack on April 4. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose by more than 2%, Hang Seng technology index rose by 5.43%, Hang Seng Composite Index rose by more than 2%, and the total market value of Hong Kong stocks soared by more than HK $1 trillion in a single day. Among them, the Internet technology sector has become the absolute “main force” of the counter attack, and BiliBili, JD health and Xiaopeng automobile all increased by more than 10%.
At the same time, Chinese stocks listed in the United States also rose sharply. On April 4, the NASDAQ Jinlong China Index rose by more than 7%. Among the four constituent stocks of Nasdaq 100, pinduoduo, Baidu, jd.com and Netease rose by about 15.6%, 9.1%, 7.1% and 2.4% respectively. Among other stocks, Ding Dong’s vegetable purchase closed up nearly 29%, futu holdings rose more than 19%, station B and iqiyi rose more than 16%, tiger securities rose more than 13%, Weilai automobile rose more than 8%, Xiaopeng automobile, Tencent music and New Oriental rose more than 7%, and Alibaba rose more than 6%. However, on April 5, there was a correction in some Chinese concept stocks.
The major counterattack of China’s technology Internet sector was mainly due to a heavy news of A-share market break on the first day.
On April 2, the CSRC, together with the Ministry of finance, the state security administration and the state archives administration, revised the provisions on strengthening the confidentiality and archives management related to overseas securities issuance and listing, forming the provisions on strengthening the confidentiality and archives management related to overseas securities issuance and listing of domestic enterprises (exposure draft). Among them, the expression “on-site inspection shall be mainly conducted by Chinese regulators or rely on the inspection results of Chinese regulators” in the original provisions is deleted; Make it clear that if the overseas securities regulatory authority and relevant competent departments propose to investigate and collect evidence or carry out inspection on domestic enterprises, securities companies and other intermediary service institutions, it shall be carried out through the cross-border regulatory cooperation mechanism.
to a certain extent, it eased the market funds’ concern about zhonggai shares and saw the positive signal of the improvement of zhonggai shares. Therefore, zhonggai shares and mainland technology stocks in Hong Kong staged a wave of valuation repair market
In fact, from the latest trend of foreign investment, we can also see that foreign investment has a good expectation of policy supervision. On the last trading day before the festival, the net inflow of funds from the North exceeded 4.4 billion yuan, and the cumulative net inflow last week reached 22.9 billion yuan, the second largest weekly net inflow in 2022, reversing the trend of continuous net outflow since March.
With the gradual improvement of market sentiment, the probability of risk appetite of A-Shares will return to the normal level in the future. Some analysts said that under the current low allocation of foreign capital to a shares, the significant enhancement of the hedging attribute of RMB, and China’s sustained and stable fundamentals and investment environment, the inflow of foreign capital into A-Shares is still a long-term trend.
The sharp rise of China concept stocks and Hong Kong stocks in the Internet technology sector will further alleviate the concerns of foreign capital, and the probability of net inflow will continue after the festival.
how big is the impact of this wave of epidemic
During the Qingming Festival, the epidemic situation in China is one of the most concerned focuses of the market. Among them, the epidemic situation in Shanghai is still high and the situation is more severe. Since March, Shanghai has reported more than 73000 cases of positive infection. At the same time, the Yangtze River Delta region and surrounding provinces also have the phenomenon of epidemic overflow, and the pressure of prevention and control is still large.
Since March, outbreaks have occurred in many provinces in China, and measures to strictly control the epidemic have been introduced one after another, affecting both ends of supply and demand to a certain extent. In March, the manufacturing PMI of the China Bureau of statistics decreased by 0.7 to 49.5, the non manufacturing business activity index decreased by 3.2 to 48.4, and the comprehensive PMI output index decreased by 2.4 to 48.8
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) it is estimated that the epidemic in March may drag down the economic growth in the first quarter by about 0.5-1.0 percentage points.
However, the inflection point of this round of China’s epidemic may be approaching. In the past week, the overall epidemic situation in the country has tended to improve, and some high-frequency indicators have also shown signs of stabilization and recovery. According to the latest data of China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) , high-frequency indicators such as the congestion index of 100 cities, the trading volume of commercial houses in 30 cities and the trading volume of construction steel have stabilized and rebounded in the past week.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) pointed out that, unlike overseas countries, China’s epidemic control is similar to the state of “cutting through the mess with a sharp knife”, and the epidemic prevention efficiency is high. At present, except Shanghai, which is still in the rising period of the epidemic, the epidemic situation in most other places tends to improve, and the follow-up steady growth policy is also active, which will contribute to the repair of the economy in the future
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) believes that the economy weakened under the impact of the epidemic in the first quarter, the rhythm of steady growth was affected, and the urgency of the secondary force of the policy increased significantly. In the future, the marginal relaxation in the real estate field and the relief policies for the industries damaged by the epidemic will be gradually implemented. Investors’ pessimistic expectations of China’s economy and the negative impact of overseas have been deduced to the extreme, and the market will start the medium-term repair trend.
Meanwhile, China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) in looking forward to the market in April, said that with the easing of the epidemic and the gradual implementation of the steady growth policy, it is expected to reverse the pessimistic expectation of corporate profits. At the same time, the negative factors that suppress the performance of A-Shares are expected to be gradually implemented, and A-Shares will gradually reverse the decline and turn from defensive to offensive.
With regard to the expectation of monetary policy, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) believes that the monetary policy will continue to maintain marginal relaxation in the second quarter, and April is the window period of RRR reduction. In addition, the policy will be more focused.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) also believes that there is a certain pressure on the economic data and social finance data in the first quarter affected by the epidemic. Under the background of the growth target of 5.5%, after the current epidemic is controlled, steady growth is expected to become one of the most important tasks in the next stage, and the growth rate of new social finance in April is expected to be significantly improved.
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) said that maintaining a stable economic operation in the first quarter and the first half of the year is very important to achieve the annual goal. The “steady growth” policy needs to continue to increase the weight to hedge the impact of the epidemic, and there is still room for reducing reserve requirements and interest rates in the second quarter
2 trillion track
Specific to the sector, the real estate sector, which continued to be strong before the festival, ushered in good news stimulation during the holiday.
On April 5, the website of Lanzhou municipal government in Gansu Province disclosed several measures for Lanzhou city to implement the strategy of strengthening the provincial council and further optimize the business environment (No. 1), which clearly proposed to reduce the threshold of individual house purchase and increase the amount of provident fund loans. The minimum down payment ratio of individuals to purchase the first house through commercial banks and provident fund loans shall not be less than 20%, and the minimum down payment ratio of the second house shall not be less than 30%. At the same time, relax regional purchase restrictions and sales restrictions.
the market expects that as the task of steady growth in the second quarter is fully rolled out, the probability of the real estate sector will continue to be inclined to good policies, the margin of the financing environment is loose, and the tight cash flow of the current real estate enterprises can be improved, which will further push up the valuation of the real estate sector
In fact, the real estate sector of Hong Kong stocks has taken the lead in performance on April 4. E-House enterprise holding, Baolong real estate and Longguang group have increased by more than 20%, and Xincheng Yuet service and Xincheng development are no less than 15%.
In addition to the real estate sector, the post Festival Performance of the new energy sector dominated by electric vehicles may also be worth looking forward to.
On April 3, Byd Company Limited(002594) released a big news on the official wechat, announcing that the production of complete fuel vehicles will be stopped from March 2022. At the same time, it also announced the sales data of March. The company sold 104878 new energy vehicles in March 2022, a year-on-year increase of 333%; The cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles this year was 286329, with a year-on-year increase of 422.97%.
After the official announcement was released, it immediately brushed the screen in the market, and Byd Company Limited(002594) has also become the world’s first traditional car enterprise to announce the shutdown of fuel vehicles. On the second trading day after the official announcement of Byd Company Limited(002594) H shares, Byd Company Limited(002594) H shares rose by more than 8%, with a total market value of more than 640 billion yuan (including the market value of a shares). The share prices of other new energy vehicles also rose sharply, and the H shares of ideal automobile and Xiaopeng automobile both rose by more than 10%. New energy vehicle stocks in the US stock market also rose collectively.
Meanwhile, Tesla announced on April 2 that the delivery volume in the first quarter reached a record 310000 vehicles, higher than 185000 vehicles in the same period in 2021, up 67.5% year-on-year, continuing the momentum of large increase in sales last year.
The official announcement of Byd Company Limited(002594) and the sharp increase in sales of Tesla are sending an acceleration signal of the general trend of new energy to the market. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles will continue to increase in 2022. In addition, as gasoline prices soar and remain high, the sales of electric vehicles may increase further
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