Today (April 6), the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed a shock adjustment pattern as a whole. The three major A-share indexes opened low in the morning, and then maintained a weak shock throughout the day. The trend of the Shanghai index was slightly stronger, turned red in the afternoon, and finally closed up slightly; Gem index and Shenzhen composite index basically fluctuated underwater all day, and finally closed on the negative line.
In this regard, Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) pointed out that from the rhythm of the previous bottoming of a shares, after the “policy bottom” is proved, the “market bottom” is not too far away, and the Shanghai composite index is near Jinlong Machinery & Electronic Co.Ltd(300032) 00 points or a relatively solid bottom. In the future, there will be a high probability of upward shock after the bottom of a shares. We should pay attention to two signals: on the one hand, China’s stability maintenance policy continues to be issued, and the economic fundamentals confirm the bottom; On the other hand, the external disturbance factors such as the rhythm of the Fed’s interest rate increase and contraction and geographical relations are gradually becoming clear.
At the same time, the agency further analyzed and focused on three main investment lines: first, the marginal relaxation of benefit policies, such as “banking and real estate”; Second, “agriculture and gold” benefiting from inflation expectations; Third, the theme of policy (support) promotion is related to “new energy (photovoltaic, energy storage, hydrogen energy), semiconductor, counting East and west”, etc.
sector:
I. real estate development
Capital Securities said that the high-level statement released positive signals and the policy window period came. At present, the downward trend of industry fundamentals continues. In the first half of March, the sales area of high-frequency data decreased by 50.1% year-on-year, the de urbanization rate of new opening decreased significantly to 34%, and the de urbanization cycle of key cities increased significantly. Some private real estate enterprises are facing the pressure of debt payment in the short term, and there is a serious lack of confidence at both ends of supply and demand. At present, it is urgent to control the real estate risk. The high-level meeting made it clear that it is important to deal with the industry risk. To open up the industry liquidity chain, we should take the lead in seeing the recovery of sales, and the restoration of house purchase confidence urgently needs policy support. The relaxation of the policy has been made clear after the high-level statement. We judge that the adjustment time window for the four limit policy in key cities is in the second half of March. The statement on the real estate tax eliminated a major negative factor that suppressed demand during the year.
Wanlian Securities pointed out that under the macro background of “stable growth”, the fundamentals of the current real estate industry continue to bottom, and the marginal improvement policy continues. It is expected that there are still many favorable policies to be expected in the follow-up, and continue to be optimistic about the market performance of the real estate sector. It is suggested to pay attention to (1) property management companies with good fundamental performance; (2) High quality real estate enterprises with financial stability and background of central enterprises / state-owned enterprises; (3) Real estate enterprises with high-quality holding properties or transformation enterprises, or effectively form a virtuous capital cycle of “development +”.
In addition, what is the sustainability of this round of real estate market? How about the upward space of the real estate sector China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) mentioned that the market performance during the three rounds of real estate policy relaxation in 2008, 2012 and 2014 was reviewed, and the four perspectives of sustainability, increase, valuation and position were selected as a reference.
First, sustainability: before the downward pressure on house prices was relieved, the real estate market probably continued to resume trading. In the past three rounds of real estate relaxation, we found that the month on month comparison of housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities can be used as an important indicator to measure the sustainability of policies in the real estate sector.
Second, room for growth: the current round of growth is still lower than that in 2012, far lower than that in 2008 and 2014. The real estate industry was significantly relaxed in 2008 and 2014, while the relaxation in 2012 was relatively weak. In contrast, since March 15, 2022, the Shenwan real estate index has recovered from 289244 points at the bottom to 373458 points, an increase of 29.12%, still significantly lower than 46.27% in 2012 and further lower than that in 2008 and 2014.
Third, valuation space: the strength of policy easing determines the valuation space. This round of structure is more important. Since November 2021, the Pb valuation of the real estate sector has been repaired from 0.83 times of the bottom to 1.06 times, with a repair range of 27.7%, close to the 33.3% level in 2012 and still far from 2008 and 2014.
Fourth, space for adding positions: in the three rounds of real estate relaxation, the proportion of sector over allocation has increased significantly. In the past three rounds of real estate relaxation, the proportion of sector over allocation has increased by more than 6%.
II. Steel
Guosheng Securities said that the short-term production increase trend of steel mills continued, while the marginal improvement of the supply and demand situation of the industry, and the demand in the peak season still needs to be verified. With the re strengthening of the expectation of stable growth in the near future, the allocation value of the steel sector in the valuation depression is prominent, among which the leading stocks with undervalued value and high dividend yield deserve special attention. It is suggested to pay attention to the long-term material target with high dividend yield Fangda Special Steel Technology Co.Ltd(600507) , as well as the industry leader Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) ; Stick to the processing track, be optimistic about the subject matter with both technical barriers and high growth characteristics, or usher in the simultaneous rise of valuation and profit. It is suggested to pay attention to: Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) , Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co.Ltd(002318) . In addition, Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes Co.Ltd(000778) which has significantly benefited from the transformation of urban pipe network also deserves long-term attention.
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) believes that steel stocks will continue to be bullish in the medium term. Against the backdrop of historically high profits and historically low valuations, the possibility of carbon neutralization has brought the ceiling of industry supply. In addition, the raw material side has contributed cost dividends again, and steel stocks will usher in a wave of sector opportunities for double rise in performance and valuation. Optimistic about the low value of high dividend ordinary steel, raw materials and some special steel. The first is Fangda Special Steel Technology Co.Ltd(600507) , Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) , Xinyu Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600782) , Maanshan Iron & Steel Company Limited(600808) , Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co.Ltd(002318) , Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co.Ltd(000708) , etc; Pay attention to Xinjiang Ba Yi Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600581) , Inner Mongolia Eerduosi Resources Co.Ltd(600295) , Hbis Resources Co.Ltd(000923) , etc.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities pointed out that at present, the sector is at the bottom of demand, the top of cost and the worst stage of fundamentals with little upward elasticity of supply. Looking forward to the future, with the phased inflection point of the epidemic, the suppressed demand will make up. From the perspective of the real estate cycle, the policy bottom is bringing fundamental changes and is expected to gradually stabilize in the second half of the year, while the cost side is likely to decline at a high level, and the industry ton gross profit will usher in re expansion, It is suggested to pay attention to the sector opportunities under high dividend, undervalued value, low allocation and low expectation. Recommend low-cost and strong management of ordinary steel faucets Fangda Special Steel Technology Co.Ltd(600507) , Sansteel Minguang Co.Ltd.Fujian(002110) , Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) , Beijing Shougang Co.Ltd(000959) , Xinyu Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600782) , etc; Benefiting from the upgrading of manufacturing industry and import substitution, recommend special steel leaders Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) , Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co.Ltd(000708) , Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co.Ltd(002318) Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) , Zhangjiagang Guangda Special Material Co.Ltd(688186) waiting for performance inflection point. In terms of new materials, the proportion of electric furnace steel has increased, and graphite electrode faucet Fangda Carbon New Material Co.Ltd(600516) ; Benefiting from the development of liquid flow battery energy storage, we recommend leading Pangang Group Vanadium Titanium & Resources Co.Ltd(000629) ; The price of lithium carbonate remains high, and it is recommended to transform the target of lithium battery Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) ; Recommended rare earth ore faucet Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union Co.Ltd(600010) , recommended carbonyl iron powder faucet Jiangxi Yuean Advanced Materials Co.Ltd(688786) ; The construction of underground pipe gallery and pipeline ushers in an opportunity period. Pipeline leaders Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes Co.Ltd(000778) , Zhejiang Kingland Pipeline And Technologies Co.Ltd(002443) , Tianjin You Fa Steel Pipe Group Stock Co.Ltd(601686) , are recommended.
one drawing summary:
