For the market, changes in the international situation and the Chinese epidemic are still the main contradictions in the market, but there are also some new variables, such as the sharp rise in US bond yields. Today, super track semiconductors with a market value of more than $2 trillion in the A-share market collapsed. Analysts believe that the Fed's shrinking table is approaching, and the sharp rise in US bond yields, the Chinese epidemic and the Japanese earthquake may be the main reasons. In addition, the downturn in consumer electronics shipments may also be an important reason.
four bad frightening semiconductors
Affected by the complex situation, the peripheral market is generally depressed today. The adjustment range of some sectors in the A-share market is also relatively large, especially semiconductors. The semiconductor index fell by nearly 3.5%, 3Peak Incorporated(688536) , Macmic Science & Technology Co.Ltd(688711) fell by more than 10%, Starpower Semiconductor Ltd(603290) fell by the limit, Yangzhou Yangjie Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(300373) , Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600460) , Anji Microelectronics Technology (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(688019) , Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) , etc.
From the perspective of semiconductor industry, there are four main variables:
First, US bond yields rose sharply. Against the background that the Fed hinted that the table contraction might accelerate, the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds reached more than 2.6% today. Historically, under this situation, the performance of growth stocks is generally poor, but the performance of high interest rate blue chips is OK.
Secondly, the government of Kunshan, an important semiconductor Town, said that it would extend the closure measures to Friday (8th), requiring all personnel not to leave Kunshan unless necessary, and requiring enterprises to fully implement closed management to effectively prevent the spread of covid-19 pneumonia. The current epidemic situation in the Yangtze River Delta is relatively severe.
Third, at about 0:04 local time on April 6, an earthquake measuring 5.4 on the Richter scale occurred off the coast of Fukushima Prefecture, Japan, with a focal depth of 50 kilometers. The earthquake was felt in the south of Miyagi Prefecture and Iwate Prefecture. At 22:34 and 22:36 Beijing time on March 16, earthquakes of magnitude 6.0 and 7.4 occurred continuously off the east coast of Honshu, Japan. The earthquake was felt strongly in Tokyo for about one minute. The earthquake was felt strongly in Fukushima Prefecture and Miyagi Prefecture and a tsunami warning was issued. These factors have lengthened the delivery time of the wafer.
Fourth, on March 28, apple analyst Guo Mingxuan lowered his forecast for the shipment of the new iPhone Se in 2022, which is expected to be reduced to 15-20 million units, compared with 25-30 million units previously. At this stage, trendforce Jibang consulting predicts that the shipment volume of China's smartphone market in 2022 will decline from about 325 million units last year to 300 million units, a year-on-year decrease of about 7.7%. The downturn in consumer electronics shipments may also be an important reason for the trend of semiconductors.
On the whole, there are still some highlights in the A-share market. The previously prompted real estate stocks performed well, and the high interest rate stocks were also very stable. What is worth mentioning most is that under the background of foreign capital's net sales of 5 billion today, A-Shares have shown resilience, and the recent market has obviously warmed up. When the economic policy meets the market preference again, the market may still have the momentum to strengthen.
how difficult the situation is
At midnight on April 3 local time, gurnawadna, leader of the parliamentary group of Sri Lanka's ruling coalition and Minister of education, announced that the Sri Lankan government had undergone a major restructuring. In addition to the continued tenure of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and the prime minister, 26 ministers of the cabinet resigned collectively. So far, the South Asian island country has fallen into a double crisis of politics and economy. At present, although the state of public emergency has been lifted in the country, according to gelonghui, global asset management companies including Fidelity Investments and t. Rowe price group are paying close attention to the default risk of Sri Lanka. The IMF also said it was closely monitoring Sri Lanka's political and economic development because the country was facing the worst economic crisis in decades and social unrest.
Recently, there have been frequent changes in countries around the world, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been constantly interpreted. On Tuesday local time, the European Commission proposed to ban Russian coal. This marks another significant escalation of punitive measures against the Kremlin. However, in view of the high dependence of some member states on the country's resources, the implementation of sanctions on the Russian energy sector has always been a challenge for the EU. In addition, the EU will also discuss sanctions against Russian oil.
Sri Lanka chaos
According to China Central Television News, on the evening of April 5 local time, Sri Lankan President gothabaya Rajapaksa announced that the state of public emergency would be lifted from midnight that day.
Sri Lanka is currently facing problems such as lack of foreign exchange, shortage of materials, rising prices and tight power supply, which have triggered protests. Gotabaya announced the implementation of a state of public emergency on the evening of the 1st.
After the collective resignation of more than 20 cabinet ministers on the evening of the 3rd, Gotabaya called on all parliamentary political parties to join the cabinet to jointly deal with the crisis, which did not receive a positive response.
At present, in addition to Gotabaya and Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa, the cabinet also includes the newly inaugurated foreign minister, education minister and highway minister on the 4th. The Minister of finance who took office on the same day resigned on the 5th.
Meanwhile, 42 members of Parliament announced their withdrawal from the ruling coalition on the 5th, resulting in the ruling coalition no longer accounting for a majority of 225 seats in the Sri Lankan Parliament.
On April 5 local time, Masahiro Nozaki, head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) representative office in Sri Lanka, said that they were closely observing Sri Lanka's political and economic development because the country was facing the worst economic crisis in decades and social unrest. The IMF looks forward to discussions with the Sri Lankan government, including consultations with the Sri Lankan Minister of finance who visited Washington later this month.
Global asset management companies, including Fidelity Investments and t. Rowe price group, are paying close attention to the default risk in Sri Lanka in the face of the growing economic crisis, according to glenexchange. According to known data, these holders estimate that they hold 4% of the outstanding debts, which will account for a small part of the total assets of these companies. Investors in Sri Lanka are increasingly worried about whether the country can continue to meet its external debt obligations, as the family that has ruled the country for most of the past 15 years has been hit by inflation and protests. The country also faces cash constraints, which have led to capital controls and import restrictions.
Previously, the country's stock market was once blown and then rebounded, but continued to fall today.
EU choice
The chaos in Sri Lanka may only be the epitome of the current situation, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is even more worrying. Since February 24, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has lasted more than months. During this period, there have been major conflicts, sanctions and negotiations.
However, judging from the trend, the current situation is not moving in a good direction, even if there have been similar signs before. After the Bucha incident, Ukraine's attitude has changed and the choices of Europe and the United States have also changed.
the European Commission proposed to ban Russian coal on Tuesday local time. "We will impose an import ban on coal from Russia, worth 4 billion euros ($4.39 billion) a year. This will reduce another important source of revenue for Russia." European Commission President Ursula von der lain announced on Tuesday afternoon
This marks another significant escalation of punitive measures against the Kremlin. In view of the high dependence of some member states on the country's resources, the implementation of sanctions on the Russian energy sector has always been a challenge for the EU.
According to Eurostat, the EU imported 19.3% of coal from Russia in 2020. In the same year, 36.5% of oil and 41.1% of natural gas were imported from Russia. In addition, the European ban on the import of Russian coal may pose new challenges to global supply.
Professionals believe that Russia is the third largest supplier of thermal coal and dominates the sales to European countries, which means that after unprecedented price fluctuations this year, the competition in the shipping market will intensify. According to ICE Futures Europe, the April contract of Newcastle coal futures rose 6.4% to US $281 / ton on Tuesday, the largest increase in nearly two weeks. Brian Martin, strategist of ANZ bank, said that insufficient investment in new production capacity and relatively strong demand in Asia made the market unable to fill the gap caused by Russia's export cuts.
In addition, the EU may also start a war on Russian oil. French President Emmanuel macron said on Monday that the EU should also continue to impose sanctions on Russian oil after the Bucha incident
future analysis
Yuanda: the main line of steady growth is obvious. Pay attention to the rhythm in these fields!
Jufeng investment adviser: the oversold rebound is coming to an end, and the repeated shocks of A-Shares will continue to find the bottom!
