Unexpectedly, the third and fourth tier cities in the Yangtze River Delta, once the most favored by real estate enterprises, launched the first shot to cancel the purchase and sale restrictions in the country.
In the first quarter of this year, more than 60 cities have released property market regulation and relaxation policies, while Quzhou City, Zhejiang Province has become the first city to fully liberalize the restrictive policies. In April 2nd, the housing and Construction Bureau of Quzhou, Zhejiang issued the circular on promoting the healthy circulation and healthy development of the real estate industry. The restriction on registered residence and the purchase of enterprises was cancelled in the restriction of purchase, and the regulations on the non transferable housing within 5 years after the signing of the housing net were cancelled.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of E-House Research Institute, told China first finance and economics that the cancellation of purchase and sales restrictions in Quzhou has a very strong signal significance. In recent years, Quzhou's property market policies have been tightened frequently and strictly regulated. However, in the first quarter of this year, the real estate market in the third and fourth tier cities along Jiangsu and Zhejiang was relatively weak, with a large gap compared with last year. Quzhou is a typical representative. Quzhou's deregulation is stronger than that of Zhengzhou, Fuzhou and Harbin recently.
In July and August last year, Quzhou also upgraded the regulation of the real estate market twice, not only filling the "hole" in the upper limit sales, but also "patching" the purchase restriction policy in order to cool the hot real estate market. Just seven months later, what happened to Quzhou property market?
after the epidemic in small cities in Zhejiang Province, the property market "took off"
Quzhou, as its name suggests, is a "thoroughfare of four provinces". It is located in the west of Zhejiang Province, the source of Qiantang River, the junction of Zhejiang, Fujian, Jiangxi and Anhui provinces, Nanping of Fujian in the south, Shangrao and Jingdezhen of Jiangxi in the west, Huangshan of Anhui in the north, and Jinhua, Lishui and Hangzhou in the East.
However, in Zhejiang Province, there are many economically strong cities with eye-catching strength, and the sense of existence of Quzhou is not strong. According to the seventh census data, Quzhou has a permanent population of over 2 million 270 thousand people, and its permanent registered residence population is 0.89, which is a population outflow city. In 2021, the regional GDP of Quzhou was 187.6 billion yuan, ranking lower in Zhejiang Province, and only a fraction of a strong economic city.
In terms of per capita disposable income, Zhejiang, which should take the lead in realizing "common prosperity", is quite strong and leads the country. In 2021, the per capita disposable income of all residents in Zhejiang Province reached 57541 yuan, with a nominal growth rate of 9.8%. The per capita disposable income ranked first among the provinces and third in the country, second only to Shanghai and Beijing, about 10000 yuan higher than Jiangsu Province (47498 yuan) and 12458 yuan higher than Guangdong Province (44993 yuan).
However, the per capita disposable income of Quzhou is much worse than the average strength of Zhejiang. The data in 2021 is 42658 yuan. Although it has a year-on-year increase of 12.5%, it only ranks the second from the bottom in the province, which is far lower than the average level of Jiangsu and Guangdong.
From the perspective of the overall picture, Quzhou is a member of wealthy Zhejiang Province, but its economic strength and per capita income are weak, ranking lower in the province, and there is population outflow. The basic conditions are not very conducive to real estate development.
Therefore, for a long time in the past, Quzhou's property market was stable without overheating. According to the data of Kerui Research Center, the supply-demand relationship of Quzhou real estate market was dynamically balanced from 2016 to 2019, and the average transaction price remained in a stable range of 10 Yihua Healthcare Co.Ltd(000150) 00 yuan / m2.
However, after the outbreak in 2020, Quzhou property market has gradually begun to appear the phenomenon of "one house is difficult to find" and high-quality new commercial houses are purchased by relationship.
some new houses were once "hard to find"
In the first half of 2020, affected by the epidemic, the overall supply of Quzhou property market still exceeded demand until a wave of demand release occurred from June to August in the second half of the year. From the end of 2020 to the beginning of 2021, the demand for house purchase accumulated after the epidemic began to release intensively, Quzhou began to have a home purchase boom, and the volume and price of the real estate market rose simultaneously. In February 2021, the average transaction price of new houses in Quzhou exceeded 20000 yuan / m2.
In the first half of 2021, the supply of primary houses in Quzhou market was small, and there were only a few buildings on sale. The market began to enter the stage of short supply, and the supply-demand ratio in March was only 0.42 At the same time, in the local auction market, high prices frequently appear, significantly pushing up the expectation of the property market.
According to the statistics of Kerui Research Center, from 2020 to mid-2021, there were 30 residential plots with an average floor price of more than 10000 yuan in Quzhou land auction market, mainly concentrated in Kecheng and Jiangshan City, the main urban areas. Among them, the four plots with an average floor price of more than 16000 yuan / m2 were located in Kecheng District, which were won by Lvcheng, Beilin, Zhicheng and Hangzhou Jianhang Lihe real estate respectively. Lvcheng won Quzhou smart new town project in Kecheng West District in February 2021, The average transaction price is as high as 17088 yuan / m2, with a premium rate of 55%.
"Zhejiang people have a relatively strong awareness of investing in real estate, and many people in Quzhou work and do business outside and have the habit of going back to their hometown to buy a house. Once they find that house prices are rising, they love to get together to buy a house. Quzhou generally needs one or two Suites to be at ease." A local "post-90s" citizen in Quzhou told reporters.
Under the superposition of various factors, Quzhou market is in short supply as a whole. In the middle of last year, Kecheng West District, the main city, was no longer selling first-hand ordinary residential products, "one house is difficult to find". Under the price limit policy, the average price of first-hand houses was 240 Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) 0 yuan / m2, and a second-hand house hung upside down about 3000 yuan / m2. There are many businessmen in Jiangshan City, and the house price in the city has been pushed up to more than 20000 yuan / square meter. According to Kerui statistics, from the beginning of 2021 to the middle of the year, the average monthly increase was 1000 yuan / m2, with a rapid rise. The house price in Qujiang District has increased from 5 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 0 yuan / m2 to 1 Rizhao Port Co.Ltd(600017) 000 yuan / m2 in the past two years, while the average price of Longyou County rigid demand project is 1200013000 yuan / m2, and the price has increased slightly.
As many new houses in Quzhou have been sold out at the opening, some projects in Quzhou have even taken measures of notarization intervention in house purchase and lottery.
Facing the overheating of the property market, Quzhou strengthened regulation and control one after another last year. Originally, Quzhou was "restricted" within the city, with 3 sets for locals and 1 set for outsiders. The sales of new houses were limited for five years, which was relatively loose on the whole. From July to August 2021, Quzhou tightened its policies twice. In July, Quzhou issued the notice on further standardizing the order of the urban real estate market, which formulated new regulations from eight aspects: optimizing land supply, implementing regional sales restrictions and strengthening house price control to further curb speculation and real estate speculation. The purchase restriction management was implemented for the first time in August, We suspend the sale of new and used housing to registered residence households with 1 or more housing units in the urban area. For non urban households with no registered residence, they need to pay urban social insurance or personal income tax for 12 months in Quzhou. They can buy 1 sets of newly built commercial housing or second-hand housing in the urban area.
the property market fell by more than 70% in the first quarter of this year
After the tightening of regulation and control of Quzhou property market in August last year, coupled with the downward impact of the national property market, Quzhou market turned cold overnight.
According to the statistics of the central index Institute, Quzhou's market reached its peak in March 2021, with 1313 sets of online signatures for new houses per month. However, in August, there were only 402 sets of online signatures for new houses per month. In December, the market rebounded slowly, and only 746 sets of online signatures were traded.
The situation of short supply completely disappeared. A real estate in the south of Quzhou City opened after the tightening of regulation and control policies. Originally, it wanted to take the route of rigid demand, so it pushed 500 sets at once. As a result, it only went to 100 sets in half a month.
In the first quarter of this year, the downward pressure on the real estate industry continued. According to Kerui data, the overall performance scale of the top 100 real estate enterprises in the first quarter decreased significantly by 47% year-on-year, and the real estate market in the third and fourth tier cities was more depressed than that in the first and second tier cities.
Quzhou is no exception. The real estate market did not improve in the first quarter of 2022. According to the data of China Index Research Institute, the transaction area of commercial houses in Quzhou decreased by more than 70% year-on-year in the first quarter, and more than 300 new houses were sold in Quzhou in March. According to the data of Kerui Research Center, the total number of units traded in Quzhou in the first quarter of 2022 was only 689, down 76% from 2872 in the first quarter of last year, and the average transaction price also decreased significantly compared with the same period of last year.
Originally, the third and fourth tier cities in affluent provinces in the Yangtze River Delta, such as Quzhou, are the markets that real estate enterprises prefer to seize in recent years. For example, large foreign real estate enterprises such as green city, Xiangsheng, blue city and country garden have taken land in Quzhou in recent years, but the momentum of land acquisition by foreign real estate enterprises has weakened significantly since the second half of 2021.
From a fundamental point of view, Quzhou real estate market is mainly an endogenous market, with 90% of local customers and a small number of foreign investors. The income of working-class workers in Quzhou is not high, and the income of public officials and working-class workers is 40005000 yuan / month. The city is more vulnerable to market downturn after the housing bubble is subsiding.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of E-House Research Institute, said that the cancellation of the "two restrictions" in Quzhou is of great significance. Compared with the recent deregulation of policies in various parts of the country, Zhengzhou and Fuzhou have cancelled the purchase restrictions, Harbin and Qingdao Jimo have cancelled the sales restrictions, while Quzhou has a more comprehensive policy and is a representative city with stronger deregulation, which fully reflects the guidance of market deregulation, which will further reduce house purchase concerns and promote the activity of the house purchase market, It has a positive effect on the de inventory of real estate enterprises.
