The explosive growth of new energy vehicles has promoted the upsurge of expanding the production of power batteries.
Since last year, the problem of tight power battery supply has begun to emerge. Now this situation has not been broken, and many power battery enterprises are in full production Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , honeycomb energy, Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) and many other power battery enterprises have been reported to expand their production one after another. According to incomplete statistics of starting point lithium electric big data, in the first quarter of this year alone, Byd Company Limited(002594) , Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) , China Innovation airlines, Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Jiewei power and other battery enterprises successively announced a number of new investment and construction projects, with an overall investment and construction capital of 228.77 billion yuan and an annual construction capacity of 620gwh.
"Capacity is expanding rapidly. Based on the prediction of industrial investment information, China's battery capacity may reach 1500gwh in 2023, 3000gwh in 2025, and battery shipments are expected to reach 1200gwh in 2025, of which 70-80% will be used in the Chinese market and 20-30% will be exported to overseas markets. It is estimated that there will be battery overcapacity in 2025." Ouyang Minggao, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said at the 2022 hundred people's Congress Forum recently.
battery enterprises busy expanding production
At present, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) is the largest power battery enterprise in the world, accounting for half of the market share. According to the latest planning, the capacity of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) will reach 670gwh in 2025 Byd Company Limited(002594) and honeycomb energy's 2025 capacity planning target has also reached 600gwh, and China Innovation Airlines's 2025 capacity target is 500gwh The total capacity of these four power battery enterprises alone will exceed 2300gwh in 2025.
The expansion of battery enterprises is due to the current hot new energy vehicle industry and the shortage of batteries. "At present, the shortage of batteries is still in place, and it is expected that there will be no change by the end of this year and the beginning of next year. It is difficult to lock in the output of batteries this year, because the production and supply are very tight. Take Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) as an example, the production capacity of this year has been fully contracted, and it is also very tight next year. Our battery production capacity has just met the needs of Daimler and GAC, and it is not even enough." Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) senior vice president and Secretary Zhang Feng said in an interview with the first financial reporter during the forum that from the perspective of the whole industry, when these batteries put into operation on a large scale are put into use, the tight supply situation at the beginning of next year may change, because after these batteries come out, many people put in batteries first and then find customers, and the supply of the whole battery will become abundant.
Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) Chairman Liu Jincheng also said that the battery supply is still tight, and now the production lines of Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) all factories should be full.
In terms of the installed capacity of power batteries, the Chinese market Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) is still dominant. According to the data released by China automotive power battery industry innovation alliance, in February this year, the installed capacity of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) power battery was 6.57gwh, accounting for 48.02% of the market share. Followed by Byd Company Limited(002594) (2.90gwh), with a market share of 21.24%. AVIC innovation ranks third, with a market share of 8.44% and Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) market share of 5.14%. In addition to these four enterprises, the proportion of other battery manufacturers is less than 5%.
From the demand side, although the current battery supply is tight, the demand for power batteries by 2025 is far from reaching the capacity planning objectives of major battery enterprises.
"It is estimated that China's power battery demand in 2025 will be 600 ~ 700gwh. The plan of Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) is 120gwh, of which a considerable part is exported. Taking Daimler's exports into account, how many friends of China's large-scale export? How can China digest so many power batteries?" Zhang Feng told reporters. Zhang Feng believes that many people shout that the production capacity will reach 500gwh in 2025, which is different from the real need to build 500gwh. For example, they shout that the production capacity of a base will reach 50gwh, but in the first phase, only 10gwh or 15gwh may be built. In the future, we will look at it while walking, and comprehensively arrange the ramp up of production capacity according to the needs of the market and the changes of customers.
It means that the enterprise is relatively cautious in expanding its production, because it will not expand its production blindly.
"Our capacity planning is mainly based on the market demand. We have announced the capacity of nearly 200gwh and are under construction. By the end of this year, the land resumption meeting will be completed, and it will be completed and put into operation in the first half of 2023. By next year, the overall capacity should reach the range of 200gwh." Liu Jincheng told reporters.
At present, although Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) is still dominated by one company, many main engine manufacturers are no longer limited to one partner. In the near future, Weilai automobile, Xiaopeng automobile and ideal automobile have invested in battery enterprise Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) . In other words, the development of second and third line power battery enterprises has accelerated. Judging from the market share of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) this year, it has declined compared with 2021. The industry believes that the surviving power battery manufacturers still have great opportunities, which is also an important reason for capital to support the power battery field. The major power battery enterprises make relevant capacity planning in order to attract the attention of the capital market. To gain a firm foothold in the future market competition, we need to make certain preparations in advance.
structural contradictions always exist
a large number of battery enterprises have emerged in the early stage of the development of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery industry, but the market has undergone a round of adjustment in the past few years. From the perspective of enterprises expanding production, they are all among the top 10 enterprises in terms of installed capacity, and the investment scale of many enterprises has reached 10 billion. Around 2017, the power battery industry began to usher in a reshuffle and investment began to shrink. This is because in the early stage, under the background of new energy subsidies, power battery enterprises continued to emerge. Some enterprises made rough and shoddy products in order to get subsidies, and did not make breakthroughs in core technology, which caused a large number of low-end products to flow to the market. On the other hand, with the growth of new energy vehicles, some enterprises blindly expand their production at the low-end production capacity, resulting in debt pressure and bankruptcy.
"In the past few years, investment has been shrinking, but high-quality production capacity is still willing to invest. The production lines of small enterprises are backward, and many are not built according to automobile grade standards. Large enterprises are also reluctant to acquire these small enterprises, because the acquisition of old production lines is worthless." Yang Hongxin, President of honeycomb energy, said in an interview with reporters earlier.
After a round of in-depth reshuffle of the industry, in 2021, with the rapid development of new energy vehicles and the strong demand for power batteries, head battery enterprises began to expand production one after another, and the capital heat poured into this field again. However, the structural contradiction between insufficient high-end capacity and excess low-end capacity has always existed.
\u3000\u3000 "As far as I know, most of the production capacity invested is in the middle and low-end production capacity, because the technical threshold of the middle and low-end production capacity is relatively low and the production is easier. We made a simple statistics from the client, and the impact of the expansion of power battery enterprises on Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) is not great, because we do 6-series and 8-series batteries. In fact, there are not many production in this area, most of which are iron lithium or 5-series low-end products Yes. There will definitely be pressure, because after the whole battery sector becomes larger, the supply and demand will change, but we think the pressure is controllable. " Zhang Feng told reporters.
"Generally speaking, the manufacturing capacity and level of China's battery enterprises have not reached a high level, and there is still room for improvement. Therefore, for a long time, we believe that the so-called shortage of high-end capacity and overcapacity at the low end should be true. Overcapacity must exist, and enterprises that do well and are responsible for customers will survive." Liu Jincheng told reporters.
