In March, many cities opened the first round of centralized land supply in 2022, and the heat of hot cities such as Beijing, Hefei and Xiamen returned to some extent.
As of March 31, 7 cities have completed the first round of local auction in 2022, and the market heat differentiation is obvious. Among them, Hefei has the highest premium rate, reaching 11.2%; Fuzhou has the highest streaming rate of 33%.
In the first quarter, real estate enterprises were still cautious in taking land. Nearly 70% of the top 100 real estate enterprises did not take land, and the state-owned central enterprises still took land with a high amount. From the ranking of new value of top 100 real estate enterprises from January to March, Greentown China ranked first with 39.2 billion yuan.
Insiders believe that there have been frequent positive voices in real estate since March. If the current tight cash flow of real estate enterprises can be substantially improved and boosted by confidence, the heat of concentrated land auction in key cities is expected to hit the bottom and rise, and the second quarter may usher in a land acquisition window period.
the heat of the first round of soil auction is obviously differentiated
As of March 31, seven cities including Beijing, Fuzhou, Qingdao, Hefei, Xiamen, Chongqing and Wuhan have completed the first round of centralized land supply in 2022, and the market heat of hot cities such as Beijing, Hefei and Xiamen has warmed up.
Kerui Research Center pointed out that the heat differentiation of local auction market in different cities is obvious. Beijing, as the first city in the first round of centralized land supply in 2022, is more popular than that in 2021, and some plots hit the ceiling price; Under the conditions of “profit sharing” and “lowering the threshold of land auction”, the local market heat in Xiamen and Chongqing rebounded slightly compared with the fourth quarter of last year. Among them, the plots in Xiamen Island were traded at a premium, and two cases touched the ceiling price. In Chongqing, when the starting price of the core sector was reduced, three plots entered the number shaking link.
The cities of Fuzhou and Qingdao are relatively cold. Not only the land plots are mainly traded at the base price, but also local platform companies and state-owned enterprises are still the main force of land acquisition; Hefei’s performance was “ice and fire”. 15 plots entered the competitive quality link, but at the same time, 8 plots suffered from auction. In addition, when the starting price is also reduced, the land markets in Chongqing and Wuhan are hot and cold, mainly due to the price reduction of high-quality soil storage in Chongqing, while the conditions of “price reduction” plots in Wuhan are general, which is difficult to mobilize the enthusiasm of real estate enterprises.
nearly seven hundred real estate enterprises did not take land during the year
From the overall land acquisition in the first quarter, the attitude of real estate enterprises is still cautious.
According to the statistics of Kerui Research Center, nearly 70% of the top 100 real estate enterprises in the first quarter still did not take land, and more than half of them came from project developers. According to the data of China Index Research Institute, from January to March, the total land acquisition of top 100 real estate enterprises was 227.16 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 59.3%; The total amount of real estate enterprises decreased by 68.0% year-on-year in March.
So, who is taking the land against the trend?
Kerui Research Center pointed out that the land acquisition real estate enterprises in different places are different. Beijing local auction is the top 10 real estate enterprises with eye-catching performance, and state-owned enterprises and central enterprises are still the main force in the land market. Local enterprises in Xiamen, Hefei and Qingdao performed strongly, among which 80% and 60% of the plots in Xiamen and Hefei were acquired by local real estate enterprises.
From the perspective of the top 20 enterprises with total land acquisition amount from January to March, it can be roughly divided into two categories. Kerry Research Center pointed out that the first category is the head of state-owned enterprises and central enterprises, such as China Resources, China shipping, China Merchants, poly, etc., of which the amount of land acquired by China shipping and China Resources exceeds 10 billion. In fact, half of the top 20 land acquisition amount are state-owned and central enterprises; The second category is the local real estate enterprises deeply cultivated in the region, such as Binjiang, Dajia, Weixing, Anhui Expressway, etc., which supplement the saleable value of the base city with centralized land supply (including Ningbo).
From the cumulative new value from January to March, according to the statistics of China Index Research Institute, green city China, China Resources Land and Shanghai real estate group occupy the top three on the list of new value of top 100 real estate enterprises. Among them, Greentown China ranked first with 39.2 billion yuan; China Resources Land and Shanghai real estate group followed, with 32.3 billion yuan and 29.7 billion yuan respectively. The total new value of top 10 real estate enterprises from January to march was 243.6 billion yuan, accounting for 33.1% of top 100 enterprises. The threshold of new value was 15.2 billion yuan.
second quarter or land acquisition window
According to the data of China Index Research Institute, from January to March, the transfer fee for residential land in 300 cities nationwide reached 308903 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 62.04%; The average transaction floor price was 4621 yuan / m2, down 6.4% year-on-year; The average premium rate was 4.4%, down 13.4 percentage points from the same period last year.
For the main reason for the further decline of land price, Kerui Research Center believes that it is mainly due to the fact that the first round of centralized land supply in most hot cities this year has not started yet, resulting in the decline of land prices on a month on month basis. It is also related to the fact that the heat of the land market was still low in the first quarter and most cities lowered the threshold of land acquisition to ensure land transactions.
According to the statistics of China Index Research Institute, as of March 31, among the 22 key cities, 18 key cities such as Beijing and Fuzhou have announced the first batch of centralized land supply, 7 cities such as Beijing, Xiamen, Chongqing and Wuhan have completed the first batch of transfer, Zhengzhou and Wuxi have opened the “pre application” mode of the first batch of land supply, and Beijing has taken the lead in issuing the announcement of the second batch of pre application. The local auction rules “turn complexity into simplicity”, lower the threshold and increase profits. The lottery / lottery is basically a standard configuration to improve the willingness of enterprises to take land.
Looking to the future, Kerry Research Center believes that in March, the real estate market ushered in a series of positive voices. If the current tight cash flow of real estate enterprises can be substantially improved and boosted by confidence, the heat of concentrated local auction in key cities is expected to bottom out and pick up, and the second quarter may usher in a land acquisition window.
However, Kerui research center also pointed out that this year is the peak year of debt repayment for most enterprises, and the capital level is still tight. Despite frequent policies, the substantive landing has not been clarified. More focus on guaranteed delivery and short-term capital is difficult to support. Prudent investment is still the main theme in the future. In the future, the differentiation of cities and enterprises will become more and more obvious. Some markets in the Yangtze River Delta with strong pressure resistance and high stability, such as Hangzhou, Suzhou, Shanghai, Guangzhou and other first tier cities, will lead other cities in the recovery of land auction heat, and the land market heat of some third and fourth tier cities with outflow of population and poor economic development may be further reduced.
