It is expected to rebound.
On April 4, the three major indexes of Hong Kong stocks jumped high and opened higher, with a strong collective intraday rise, and the Hang Seng technology index rose by more than 5%. As of the close, the Hang Seng Index rose 2.1% to close at 2250231; The Hang Seng SOE index rose 3.1% to close at 777098; The Hang Seng technology index rose 5.43% to close at 476999.
While Hong Kong stocks rose sharply, the trend of A-Shares after the festival has also become a matter of great concern to many investors.
“The main reason for the previous sharp adjustment of the market is still the disturbance of all kinds of negative market news and the lack of investor confidence under the condition of fragile sentiment.” Pang Ming, chief economist and chief strategic analyst of Huaxing securities (Hong Kong), told China business news that with the elimination of adverse factors restricting the valuation repair of relevant sectors in the short term, such as the haze of the epidemic, regulatory uncertainty at home and abroad, geopolitical risks and performance revaluation, A-Shares are expected to rebound after the festival and gradually enter the medium-term upward channel.
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) recently, the research report believes that with the basic verification of the “policy bottom” of this round of a shares, the probability of “shock upward after grinding the bottom” is high.
“From the perspective of valuation contraction, it is close to the end. The valuation of overall A shares and some high-quality targets are at the historical average or even low position. As long as there is no significant downward revision in the later fundamentals and EPS (earnings per share), it should belong to the bottom area in terms of the market.” Yinhua Fund Manager Li Xiaoxing said in a live broadcast on March 29.
Market grinding
On March 16, the meeting of the Finance Committee of the State Council was held. After hitting the lowest point of 3023, the Shanghai Composite Index came out of the “V” shaped rebound.
“The convening of the financial committee meeting and the intensive statements of relevant departments on stable expectations and steady growth indicate that the A-share market has seen an ’emotional bottom’.” Pang Ming said that in the short term, the market is likely to maintain a volatile situation. In the future, when the “policy bottom” and “growth bottom” become more and more clear and many uncertainties are eliminated, the “market bottom” is expected to gradually approach, which will eventually lead to the end of the bottom grinding, the narrowing of the amplitude and the determination of a stable upward channel.
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) research report believes that the improvement of market expectations for economic fundamentals and the recovery of confidence in the stock market are the main driving forces for the market to get out of the bottom. The bottom of A-Shares generally presents the time law of “policy bottom – market bottom – profit bottom”. The “policy bottom” is usually 1.5 ~ 3 months ahead of the “market bottom”. After the “policy bottom” is confirmed, the market often rebounds, but the construction of the market bottom is often not achieved overnight. However, the probability of “shock upward after grinding bottom” is high.
Pang Ming said that after the early market adjustment, the valuation pressure of some blue chip enterprises and popular sectors has been greatly relieved. The valuation level of many high-quality targets has been at a low level both horizontally and vertically. The safety margin has been improved, which is quite attractive and highlights the long-term allocation value.
“Especially for the sectors where the early valuation pressure and transaction congestion have been fully released, the industries whose prosperity has been continuously improved and the high-quality enterprises, investors are expected to have both growth and certainty.” He said.
Valuation contraction is coming to an end
Recently, a number of public fund managers expressed optimism about the market trend.
Xie Zhiyu, deputy general manager of Xingzheng global, said bluntly in a live broadcast on March 30 that at present, from the perspective of top-down and bottom-up, it is found that the market is relatively fragmented: on the one hand, there are indeed many pressures and difficulties from top-down this year, which will be clearly reflected in enterprise profits, which is also the reason for the general market performance, but from bottom-up, many companies in the current market are “worth starting”, There is no particular risk in the current market.
He said that from a top-down perspective, this year has indeed encountered many difficulties, such as inflation, rising raw material prices, the Chinese epidemic, and the international environment. This is why the performance of the whole market has been relatively average since this year. But from the bottom up, it seems that this market is better than before.
Xie Zhiyu believes that the situation of enterprises in many industries and fields is very good. These enterprises are gradually gaining global competitiveness. Their degree of stability and the space they can imagine in the future become much larger than before.
\u3000\u3000 As a matter of fact, the price of aviation enterprises will be significantly lower than that of the market before the epidemic, but we believe that it will be much better than that before the epidemic It will pass. We still believe that these enterprises will eventually return to reasonable profitability, so their pricing methods are different. ” He said.
Yinhua Fund Manager Li Xiaoxing also said in a live broadcast on March 29 that he was “very optimistic about investment opportunities in the equity market”.
Li Xiaoxing believes that new energy and other technology sectors will remain the most attractive growth and investment sectors in the future after the full release of risks; The consumer industry also has a lot of absolute income space, and his personal and family assets have basically bought their own managed funds.
“From the perspective of valuation contraction, it is close to the end. The valuation of the overall A shares and some high-quality targets are at the historical average or even low position. As long as there is no significant downward revision of the underlying fundamentals and EPS (earnings per share), it should belong to the bottom area in terms of the market.” He said.
