Since 2000, the rising probability of the market index in the second quarter has generally been less than 60%. Food and beverage, non bank finance, banking, household appliances and other industries have the highest winning rate.
On the first trading day in April, A-Shares made a good start. On the same day, northbound funds bought a net 4.421 billion yuan, which has returned for three consecutive days, with a cumulative net inflow of more than 18 billion yuan. The performance of heavyweights in the market was eye-catching. Leading stocks in industries such as Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) and Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) , China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) and China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) all rose by more than 3%.
heavyweights stalled in the first quarter
financing customers exceeding 10 billion evacuated from three industries
In fact, from the performance of the past quarter, the performance of heavyweights is not satisfactory. According to the statistics of securities times · databao, in the first quarter, nearly 60% of the constituent stocks of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index fell by more than 10% in the first quarter Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Will Semiconductor Co.Ltd.Shanghai(603501) , Wingtech Technology Co.Ltd(600745) , Yonyou Network Technology Co.Ltd(600588) , etc. decreased by more than 30%
Affected by the repeated epidemic, the situation in Russia and Ukraine and global inflation, the overall performance of the A-share market was sluggish. The Shanghai Composite Index fell below several integer levels one after another, stabilized and rebounded on March 16, and the latest index returned to 328272. In the past March, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 6.07%, the worst performance in March in the past decade. The total net outflow of funds from the north in the current month was 45.083 billion yuan, and the scale of net outflow was the highest in a single month in recent two years.
Last year, the hot track stocks ceased, and the industry indexes of electronics, national defense and military industry, automobile, household appliances, food and beverage and other industries fell by more than 20% in the first quarter coal, real estate, comprehensive, banking and other sectors strengthened against the market, with the coal index rising by 22.63% in total, far ahead according to the statistics of data treasure, during this period, financiers withdrew from the electronics, power equipment and non-ferrous metal sectors, and the net sales amount of the three industries exceeded 10 billion.
the probability of A-Shares rising and falling in the second quarter is half
food and beverage has the highest winning rate
In April, the peak of annual reports of listed companies is coming, and a large number of company performance are competing to disclose. Will heavyweights and track stocks make a comeback? By combing the historical data since 2000, databao found that in the past 21 years, the law of the rise of the market index is not obvious, and the rise probability is generally below 60%.
The Shanghai stock index rose 12 times in April, with a rise probability of 57%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose 60%; The probability of Shanghai stock index rising in May is 52.38%, and the probability of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rising is 55%; In June, the probability of Shanghai stock index rising was 57%, and the probability of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rising was 45%. From the whole second quarter, the probability of Shanghai stock index and Shanghai Shenzhen 300 index rising was 47.6% and 50% respectively.
So who has a higher winning rate in different industries during the second quarter? According to the statistics of data treasure, the top three in the industry growth list in April in history were non bank finance and beauty care, both of which were shortlisted six times; In May, beauty care ranked first in 7 finalists, followed by food and beverage and electronic industries, with 6 finalists; In June, food and beverage were shortlisted the most, with seven times ranking among the top three in the increase list.
Overall, during the second quarter, the food and beverage industry ranked the top three in the list with the largest number of times. Since 2000, it has been shortlisted seven times, followed by non bank finance, banking, household appliances and other industries
According to data treasure statistics, at present, the average pullback range of food and beverage stocks has reached 25% compared with the high point of the year. 36 food and beverage stocks retreated by more than 30%. According to the lower limit of annual report, express report and forecast net profit, there were 9 stocks whose net profit increased year-on-year in 2021, such as Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) , Shanghai Laiyifen Co.Ltd(603777) , Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) , Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) , Zhe Jiang Li Zi Yuan Food Co.Ltd(605337) , etc. As of the latest closing, He Bei Cheng De Lolo Company Limited(000848) , with a rolling P / E ratio of less than 17 times, followed by Sirio Pharma Co.Ltd(300791) , Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) .
a-share valuation close to historical low
market or entering the grinding stage
After the adjustment in the first quarter, the valuation level of the A-share market moved further downward. According to the statistics of data treasure, as of the closing on April 1, the P / E ratio of Shanghai stock index was 12.62 times, at the level of 35% of the quantile in the past decade; The price to book ratio is 1.38 times, which is at the level of 21.67% of the quantile in the past decade.
How do institutions view the next trend? Caixin Securities believes that at present, the price earnings ratio valuation of the A-share market is at a historical low, and the medium and long-term funds usher in a better layout time point. It is expected that the probability of a trend market in the market in the second quarter is small, and the focus can grasp structural opportunities.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) research report pointed out that at present, some factors causing market adjustment have been actively resolved at the policy level, the fundamental signal is still weak , the potential inflection point may still need to wait for the effectiveness of the policy to achieve fundamental improvement, and the market may still repeat in the short term, but the stage similar to the sharp decline in the early stage may have ended, and the subsequent market may gradually enter the bottom grinding stage.
Dongguan securities released a research report on April 1, which said that with the gradual stabilization of the peripheral market and the accelerated implementation of the stable growth policy after the two sessions, it generally presents a pattern of stabilizing and repairing, and gradually build a "market bottom", especially if the policy is strengthened, it does not rule out the technical rebound
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