Affected by the epidemic situation in China, PMI fell below the boom and bust line in March. Looking back on the statements made at this year's golden stability meeting and the two sessions, it is not difficult to see that the downward pressure on the economy is still great. So how will A-Shares go after Qingming Festival? Which main lines are collectively favored by securities companies?
First, let's take a look at the trend of April that every investor pays special attention to. We can also get some experience from the market over the years.
taking history as a mirror, the probability of rising in April is as high as 81%
Based on the historical regular experience in the past, from the trend of the main A-share indexes in April over the years, in the 16 years from 2005 to 2020, the index rose in the first half of April for 13 years, accounting for 81.25%.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) pointed out that the A-share market often has the seasonal feature of "April decision", especially in the year when the profit inflection point appears. After April, the disclosure and fundamentals of the annual report and the first quarterly report are clearer, the two sessions are over, and the macro policy situation is clearer. Investors can make a clearer judgment on the market. A shares often choose the direction in April.
three forces boost, rebound or continue until mid April
Cinda Securities believes that the current rebound will be stronger than that in February, and the time is likely to last until mid April
There are three main forces behind the rebound, the first is the oversold rebound Wande's maximum pullback in the whole a quarter has reached 20%, and the decline rate has exceeded the bear market in 2018. There is a need for technical oversold rebound the second is the expectation of policy stability 2022: the financial stability Commission of the State Council held a special meeting on March 16, 2022. The end of the policy is enough to support the monthly rebound of the market the third is to revise the matching degree of valuation and performance before and after the quarterly report quarterly report is an important performance verification period. In a bear market, it is easier to rebound well before and after the quarterly report. The first and second forces have fulfilled a lot, and the third force has not been concentrated. With the gradual disclosure of the first quarterly report in early April, the third force is likely to extend the rebound time to mid April. If we refer to the experience of U.S. stocks, the V-shaped reversal only needs the easing of monetary policy again, which is an upward risk that needs to be highly valued, which is very different from the history of a shares.
disk hot spots continued to be hot, and the absence of interest rate reduction was the ammunition retained for the follow-up
In fact, from the disk in March alone, there are not no bright spots. Real estate and anti epidemic activities continue to be active, and the heat is not reduced. In combination with the attitude and care of policy. Real estate, steady growth and epidemic prevention have begun to change in a positive direction real estate , "Article 19 of Zhengzhou" has opened a precedent for the core cities to relax the purchase, loan and shed reform monetization, and Ningbo, Qingdao and Guangzhou have also begun to relax the purchase or loan restrictions locally steady growth , the two sessions defined the annual growth target. After the two sessions, in addition to the warming of temperature and the gradual maturity of construction conditions, the willingness of local governments to start construction is also expected to gradually pick up under clear policy objectives epidemic prevention although China is currently at the peak of the epidemic since 2020, there have been positive changes in epidemic prevention strategies. It is expected that with the new peak of the current round of epidemic, the supply and demand ends will gradually recover.
At the same time, the failure of the expectation of interest rate cut in March is due to the higher than expected economic data. At the same time, it is also the concern of the monetary policy authorities about the sustainability of economic recovery, is the ammunition for the follow-up 2 social finance fell short of expectations, mainly due to the overdraft of social finance in January. From the perspective of social finance from January to February, the credit environment is basically flat, and it is difficult to support the growth target of 5.5%, which still needs further policy support.
how to configure in April
There is no doubt that real estate and anti epidemic are the hottest in March. Will they still be in April? If not, who can take over? At the level of A-share allocation in the second quarter, China's major securities companies have also made judgments and given the direction worthy of attention. The following three main lines are unanimously optimistic.
China's new round of epidemic exceeded expectations, "steady growth" or further force Since 3 March, the epidemic situation in China has rebounded. Recently, the prevention and control measures in Shanghai, Jilin and other places have been significantly upgraded, and a clear inflection point has not yet been seen. The epidemic has repeatedly superimposed inflationary pressure on commodities, or had a restraining effect on China's production and consumption. To achieve the annual economic growth target, China's hedging policies related to "steady growth" need to be further strengthened. It is suggested to grasp the main line of "stable growth", including new and old infrastructure chain, real estate chain, banks, securities companies, etc.
the end of policy has been confirmed, and the market may continue to grind the bottom in April 3 on March 16, the meeting of the Finance Committee of the State Council set the tone, effectively alleviated the excessive pessimism, and the "policy bottom" was confirmed again. However, the deep-seated problems affecting market micro liquidity may not be completely solved. From the perspective of profit expectation, it is true that only a few track industries have strong long-term prospects. Before the emergence of the market bottom, the upward beta elasticity of the market itself is limited, and the bottom-up idea needs to be used. It is suggested to grasp the investment opportunities in the consumption sector. On the one hand, we can pay attention to some industries with price rise expectations, including some food processing and Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) ; On the other hand, it is suggested to pay attention to the repair opportunities of some consumer service industries.
in addition, "oversold" was also the main focus in April for the science and technology manufacturing sector with relatively high prosperity, the valuation performance price ratio appears after continuous adjustment in the early stage, so we can look for rebound opportunities in combination with the performance of the first quarterly report.
