With perc battery efficiency approaching the limit and cost reduction slowing down, the photovoltaic industry is experiencing a new round of rapid rise of battery technology. At present, n-type battery is most expected to replace p-type battery and is regarded as a new way for component manufacturers to seize the market photovoltaic leader Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) and more than ten other enterprises are laying out n-type production capacity one after another. However, since the high point of last year, the largest decline of has been close to 40% .
Yesterday, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) revealed that company’s new battery technology is expected to achieve mass production in the fourth quarter of this year , injecting new momentum of innovation and development into the industry.
On the layout and development of the next generation battery technology, the 601 Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) did not disclose .
Public information shows that the technical route of n-type battery mainly includes topcon, hjt and IBC . Due to differences in cost, yield and other aspects, different enterprises choose slightly different technical routes. TOPCON has low investment cost and can maximize the use of existing production capacity, so it has become the first choice for mainstream battery plants at present; Hjt theoretically has the opportunity to overtake in curves, attracting Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) and other new entrants.
It is worth noting that Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) is the only company that has laid out three technical routes at the same time before the crossroads of photovoltaic cell technology changes. In this regard, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) relevant people said, ” Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) do not bet , follow up and study a variety of photovoltaic cell routes and keep leading in the industry.”
As the world’s largest manufacturer of photovoltaic grade monocrystalline silicon, the photoelectric conversion efficiency of Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) n TOPCON is 25.21%, that of hjt cell is 25.26%, and both broke the world record . Moreover, on March 31, the company set another Shanghai New World Co.Ltd(600628) record of 25.40% conversion efficiency of indium free hjt battery .
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) sun Xiaoya said in the Research Report on January 10 that under the background of 22 years of demand, silicon wafer price war has a bottom limit and silicon wafer began to lose excess profits. Cost reduction and product upgrading (continuously breaking the world record of n-type battery efficiency in 21 years) bring upward elasticity of single watt profit for Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) . According to sun Xiaoya’s calculation, assuming that Longji will ship 5-10gw of TOPCON components in 22 years, the upward elasticity of profit is RMB Changshu Guorui Technology Co.Ltd(300600) million . At the same time, hjt and TOPCON will combine the two technical routes in mass production in the future, which will achieve significant leadership over the industry .
Up to now, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) has not announced the performance in 2021. From the perspective of the average annual profit of institutions, it is estimated that the profit of institutions is less than 2.06 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 635.
According to Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) calculation, the global TOPCON / hjt battery capacity is expected to reach 134 / 67gw by the end of 2023 and 206 / 140gw by 2025 respectively, it is estimated that the market space of TOPCON and hjt equipment is expected to reach 30.3 billion yuan and 40.9 billion yuan respectively from 2022 to 2025 .
In the Research Report on January 2, Liu Qiang of Kaiyuan Securities said that at present, the production capacity of n-type high-efficiency batteries in the industry is small, and there is a large demand gap in the future. Based on its own technical advantages, the company further improves its integrated competitive advantage. According to the profit forecast and valuation calculation, it is estimated that the annual net profit in 2022 will be 14.704 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 26.6%, and the year-on-year growth rate of net profit in 2023 will slightly increase to 28.2%.
However, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) did not appear in the photovoltaic high-efficiency n-type industrial technology innovation alliance recently initiated by the head enterprise atlas, of which . Some industry analysts believe that the mainstream of the current market is still perc battery, Longji and other enterprises at present, the n-type battery module is mainly based on small-scale pilot test line , so it is not too early to give up the current technical route.
