Since the second half of 2021, international grain and oil prices have increased significantly.
According to the report of Suning Financial Research Institute, global food prices have entered a rising channel since 2020, and it seems to be getting worse in the near future. As of February 2022, the food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) global food price index has exceeded the high level in 2011.
On April 1, Kong Lingqi, the Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) leader of Haitong futures, told the Red Star capital bureau that since the beginning of the year, the major international Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices have risen sharply, the CBOT US bean and US corn futures contracts have risen to the highest level in nearly 10 years, and the US wheat contract has risen sharply when the situation in Russia and Ukraine deteriorated in early March, reaching the highest level in more than 14 years. In terms of China’s disk performance, corn and wheat futures hit a new high since listing in early March, and soybean meal futures climbed to an all-time high in late March.
“the soaring price of Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) is mainly due to the low inventory of Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) in the world in recent years, and the geographical conflict between Russia and Ukraine has further weakened the supply toughness of Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) .” Kong Lingqi said.
The impact of rising raw material prices will also be transmitted to the middle and lower reaches. Red Star capital Bureau found in the interview that the price of soybean oil increased significantly during the year, squeezing the profits of grain and oil enterprises and increasing the costs of catering enterprises; Palm oil prices remained high, and the price of instant noodles began to rise; The change of soybean meal price also affects the profits of breeding enterprises that use soybean meal as the main source of feed protein.
soybean price rise pushes up soybean oil price
2 year increase of about 77%, and the cost of catering enterprises is under pressure
The price of soybeans in September 17ot and March 17ot reached a peak of 36 cents, respectively. On March 30, brick’s agricultural big data released a report saying, at present, the futures price of Daishang Douyi has reached an all-time high and remained at 62006300 yuan / ton in March 2022
The price trend of soybean futures also affects the price of its main product soybean oil. On April 1, the sales manager of Chenxiang Trading (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. told Hongxing capital Bureau: “the retail price of soybean oil is closely related to the futures market and changes almost every day.”
He mentioned that since this year, the price of soybean oil has an obvious upward trend. “At this time last year, the average retail price of 20L soybean oil was 180190 yuan. It has been rising from the beginning of this year to the middle of March, and decreased in late March. At present, the latest quotation is about 260 yuan.” The staff of Chengdu Yangchen Yongxing Trading Co., Ltd. also said: “the price of 20L soybean oil sold for 220 yuan in February, and now it has risen to 245 yuan.”P align = “center” wholesale price of 20L soybean oil of a brand
Red Star capital Bureau learned that 20l medium packaged soybean oil products are mainly for catering, hotels and other customers, and the change of its price will directly affect the cost of catering enterprises
The owner of a hot pot shop in Zhengzhou told the Red Star capital bureau that the price of soybean oil has been rising since the epidemic. “Before the epidemic, 20L soybean oil did not exceed 130 yuan. Last year, it rose to about 190 yuan, and now it has risen to 230 yuan.” In other words, from 2019 to now, the price of soybean oil has increased by about 77% and about 21% in the past year.
The rising price of soybean oil has increased the cost of restaurants. “The price of 20L soybean oil bought recently has increased by about 40 yuan compared with that of years ago, because the hot pot shop uses a large amount of oil, and this part of the cost is also increasing.” The hotpot shop owner said.
However, in the face of the rise in the price of raw materials, hotpot shop owner said that the price of meals would not rise and he would absorb the pressure of rising costs “not only soybean oil, but also vegetables are rising in price, but the rising price of meals will affect the customer experience, so the rising cost of raw materials can only be digested by ourselves without considering raising the price.”
Grain and oil enterprises are also squeezed by the rising prices of raw materials such as soybeans.
Red Star capital Bureau noted that Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) ( Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) . SZ) said in its 2021 annual report that the purchase unit price of soybeans and processed products in 2021 increased from 3145 yuan / ton in 2020 to 4734 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 50.52%. The rise in the price of raw materials also led to Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) the first increase in revenue without increasing profit since 2016.
The pressure of rising raw materials continues. On April 1, Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) said on the investor interaction platform: “at present, the soybean price is the highest in history, which will put some pressure on the raw material cost of the company.”
behind the rise in the price of instant noodles
palm oil price increased by 44.6% year on year
Not only soybeans, but also global oil prices remain high. According to the statistics of datayes, the main contract prices of rapeseed meal, palm oil and soybean meal futures have increased by 37%, 34% and 25% respectively since the beginning of the year p align = “center” the picture is from Xingtu Financial Research Institute
Palm oil is one of the main raw materials of instant noodles. According to the financial report data of Master Kong Holdings (00322. HK), the price of palm oil has risen sharply since the second half of 2020 and reached the highest in the second half of 2021. This is also the time node for Master Kang to announce the price increase of large food barrels and medium price bag noodles, which account for 20% of the sales.
It is worth mentioning that Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) pointed out in the research report that as of February 14, 2022, the price of palm oil had increased by 44.6% year-on-year, and expected that the adverse impact of changes in raw material prices on Master Kang would last at least until the second half of 2022
Red Star capital Bureau learned that about 85% of soybean meal is used for poultry breeding. According to the Securities Daily, under the rise of soybean meal price, since mid March, many feed enterprises have announced that the price of pig and poultry products has increased by 75-300 yuan / ton.
At the same time, the rising price of soybean meal also affects the profits of breeding enterprises that use soybean meal as the main source of feed protein Yunnan Shennong Agricultural Industry Group Co.Ltd(605296) ( Yunnan Shennong Agricultural Industry Group Co.Ltd(605296) . SH) once said: “at present, the main reason for the impact on the feed business is the low price of pigs. The increase of feed price will directly increase the marketing cost of pig breeding and increase the breeding loss , which will reduce the purchase of feed by farmers, thus affecting the development of feed business.
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Zhou Zhichao of Zheshang Futures Research Center analyzed to Hongxing capital bureau that the reason for this round of oil price rise was mainly from the supply side, “This round of sharp rise began with palm oil. Malaysia has been affected by labor problems and floods since December last year, and its output has been lower than expected for several consecutive months, while Indonesia, another major producer, is subject to export policies. The export volume of palm oil continues to be depressed, and the contradiction between global palm oil supply is prominent, which has pushed up the market price of horse palm oil. China’s insufficient import volume has led to the continuous low inventory of palm oil, low inventory and high base difference The pattern has become the strongest help of bulls. “
The reasons for the rise of rapeseed meal and soybean meal are similar. Soybean meal moves with the cost side. In South America, affected by La Nina, the output was reduced by more than 20 million tons, American beans rose to 1650 cents / PU, and soybean meal rose to 3700 yuan / ton. Since the end of February, the supply of soybean meal has risen rapidly to the top of RMB 4500 / Hong Kong, leading to the shortage of soybean meal in February. On the one hand, the trend of rapeseed meal follows that of soybean meal. On the other hand, China is also short of supply, so the trend is stronger.
Zhou Zhichao also said that in addition to the supply side factors, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is another important reason. Since the intensification of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the global food crisis has become prominent, and Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) led by corn and wheat have stepped out of a wave of accelerating rising market trend.
impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price
rapeseed meal, soybean meal, etc. are “upside down”
Kong Lingqi, leader of Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) of Haitong futures, said that the evolution of supply and demand pattern still needs to be considered in the later Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price trend.
Kong Lingqi’s analysis: “in the short term, the geographical conflict is still the most direct factor affecting the price. If the conflict continues, the demand for chemical fertilizer in Russia and Ukraine during the planting season and other agricultural producing countries in the northern hemisphere may be affected, so that the price will remain high for the whole year in the future; if the conflict is alleviated, the Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price will return to the fundamentals itself.”
It is worth noting that on the evening of March 30, the central bank issued the opinions on doing a good job in financial support and comprehensively promoting the key work of Rural Revitalization in 2022, which mentioned that we should increase financial support for important Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) supply of soybeans and oil
The central bank pointed out that we should focus on promoting the increase of soybean and oil production and the supply of “vegetable basket” products, optimize the allocation of credit resources and continue to increase credit investment. Relying on the main production areas and important logistics nodes, standardize the development of supply chain financial services, and increase financial support for the construction of important Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) production and processing, warehousing and preservation cold chain logistics facilities. Actively develop financial products suitable for the characteristics of woody oil plants such as Camellia oleifera, appropriately relax the access threshold, extend the loan period, and support the large-scale planting of Camellia oleifera and the transformation of low yield forests.
Zhou Zhichao of Zheshang Futures Research Center said: “after this wave of sharp rise, the macro environment has changed significantly, and there seems to be a easing trend between Russia and Ukraine. Chinese soybeans have successively arrived in Hong Kong, and the State Reserve soybeans and oil began to be thrown out to alleviate the supply pressure. After the aggravation of the epidemic in China, the weakness of the consumer side is obvious, and the oil and oil has now seen a deep decline.”
According to Mysteel data, on April 1, the overall transaction rate of imported soybeans in the national temporary storage auction was 49.5%, the transaction price was 52704860 yuan / ton, the transaction volume was 248300 tons, and the transaction in inland areas was better. On April 7, the second round of imported soybean auction since this month will be opened, with a quantity of 500000 tons. It is expected that the follow-up control measures will be followed up one after another.
Red Star capital Bureau noted that on April 1, oil and oil in China’s futures market fell in a large area, rapeseed meal and soybean meal fell by more than 5%, and palm oil fell by more than 4%. There is a phenomenon that the prices of “soybean oil and spot oil” and “rapeseed oil” are higher than those of the commodity futures
