Under the influence of a series of adverse factors, A-Shares performed poorly in March and continued to fluctuate at a low level after falling sharply at the beginning of the month. After entering April, although there are still many uncertainties in the periphery, the adverse factors are gradually alleviating, and many institutions believe that the overall market will begin to improve in April.
opinions
Galaxy Securities
is in the position of high cost performance
The establishment of policy has greatly boosted market confidence. Since then, the market has gradually risen. Compared with the market environment at the end of the previous policy, we can find that all economic indicators in China were in the downward range during the previous policy efforts, and the economic growth rate decreased significantly. At the same time, the profits of all A-listed companies fell in an all-round way. After the policy end was established, the short-term probability of the market rebounded positively, and the market bottom still needs to be explored again. In addition, the current round of market decline is different from the previous market environment. The current market temperature is still higher than that at the end of the previous policy. From the perspective of policy, the rhythm is different from that in the past. Compared with the "four trillion" investment plan in 2008 and the intensive market rescue measures in 2015, the rhythm of this round of policy is "dominated by me". We believe that the future policy will also adhere to its own rhythm and work harder step by step.
In April, we paid attention to important meetings and economic and profit indicators. In the long run, A-Shares have been in a position of high cost performance. From the economic perspective, although the year-on-year economic data from January to February exceeded market expectations, it may not reflect the real economic situation due to the impact of the year-on-year base. The decline in the growth rate of medium and long-term loans and the decline of some leading indicators of real estate show that the end of the economy may not yet come, and more attention needs to be paid to the economic indicators of March in April. Earnings side, April is also the annual report of listed companies and the intensive disclosure period of a quarterly report. With the gradual disclosure of earnings reports, the prosperity of various industries will be further confirmed. At present, the full A valuation bubble has been squeezed. In the long run, it has already been in a relatively high price performance position. The importance of value investing is uplifting, coincides with the intensive disclosure period of financial reports, and it can be used for valuing the high-quality stocks with high profitability and high cost performance. However, the transmission effect of steady growth and the continuous upward price of upstream resource products need more time to determine the degree of profit damage to the listed companies in the middle and lower reaches. In terms of policy, the convening of the meeting of the finance committee makes the policy more clear and establishes a positive signal, but the follow-up policy support will determine the rebound time and space. We can pay attention to the convening of the Politburo meeting in April.
In terms of configuration suggestions, firstly, the sectors with high prosperity, smooth logic and good long-term growth in military industry, new energy, semiconductor and other industries can carry out strategic layout, bargain hunting and pay attention to the rhythm of investment; Secondly, the upstream resource products sector benefiting from the global energy shortage. In 2022, the long-term shortage of supply and demand of resource products is still in progress, and the profit certainty is strong. Driven by the economic recovery, there may be a rebound opportunity; Finally, focus on the financial and real estate sectors with undervalued value and both attack and defense.
\u3000 \u30 Shenzhen Zhenye(Group)Co.Ltd(000006) 86
maintain the shock bottoming trend
from the perspective of trend, the end of the market may be in May, and the trend of shock bottoming will be maintained in April. First, the disturbance of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the Fed's interest rate hike may not be relieved until May; Second, China's epidemic situation has repeatedly led to the stabilization and recovery of the economy and the implementation of the policy of maintaining growth may not be implemented until May. Secondly, in the direction of the industry, according to the historical recovery, the real estate, building materials, banking, etc. focused on the current growth policy, as well as some high boom industries such as medicine, military industry, TMT and new energy may be dominant.
Molecular profits may be weak due to the suppression of the epidemic, micro liquidity may be repaired, and risk appetite is still neutral. First, the steady growth policy in April may be further introduced and implemented, but the economy may still be weakly affected by the epidemic; The better operating data from January to February may make the first quarterly report forecast and enterprise profit expectation better; Secondly, in April, the overseas monetary tightening was in an empty window period, and China continued to be relatively loose; New development funds and emotional funds may improve marginally in April, and foreign capital may also return; Finally, the policy of maintaining growth in April will continue to work; However, the inflationary pressure caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is still large, and uncertainties such as the Chinese epidemic and the conflict between China and the United States may still suppress risk appetite.
In April, the main line of industrial allocation was policy orientation and prosperity improvement. First, IDC and cloud computing related to "computing from the east to the west" in the stable growth oriented new infrastructure, and some undervalued state-owned enterprises of building materials related to old infrastructure; Second, covid-19 treatment and medical services in pharmaceuticals that have fallen but are still booming, as well as some military industries, semiconductors and new energy whose performance has exceeded expectations; Third, benefiting from the outbreak of the epidemic, the demand for offline life has increased, and at the same time, the media and computers catalyzed by meta universe and digital economy; Fourth, China US relations have eased in stages, and tariff exemption is good for machinery, electrical equipment and textiles; Fifth, in terms of calendar effect, historically, banks, non banks, food and beverage, household appliances, automobiles and other industries performed better in April.
\u3000\u3000 Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926)
grasp the stage opportunity after oversold
at the macro level, the macroeconomic data from January to February are better than the market expectations. However, the recent rebound of China's local epidemic may restrict the recovery of consumption, and the rise of global commodity prices may have an inhibitory effect on industrial production. In order to achieve the goal of 5.5% GDP growth in the whole year, we need to put "steady growth" in a more prominent position, and policies still need to take the initiative to deal with it.
On the market, taking history as a mirror, how far is the distance between "policy bottom and market bottom"? Looking back on 2018, the "policy bottom" appeared on October 19, 2018, and the lowest point of Shanghai composite index was 2449; The "market bottom" appeared on January 4, 2019, and the lowest point of Shanghai composite index was 2440. "Policy end - market end", with an interval of about 2.5 months; Spatially, the lowest point of the Shanghai stock index is close. Looking back, the "policy bottom" of the Shanghai index near 2449 is still a solid bottom, which is a better time for medium and long-term capital to allocate assets.
In terms of investment strategy, after the meeting of the financial committee, A-Shares came out of a round of oversold rebound. At the current time point, we should dialectically treat the opportunities and risks of a shares. In the process of repeated grinding, excessive optimism or pessimism should be avoided. On the one hand, "steady growth" is still the main line of China's current policy. Under the monetary policy pattern of "external tightening and internal loosening", there is still room for China to reduce reserve requirements and interest rates. The Shanghai index is near Wuxi Boton Technology Co.Ltd(300031) 00 points or a relatively solid bottom; On the other hand, peripheral factors such as the rhythm of the Fed's interest rate increase and contraction and geographical relations still disturb a shares.
It is suggested that investors actively grasp the phased opportunities after the oversold, and beware of the risks after the index rises too much. In terms of industry allocation, pay attention to three main investment lines: first, the marginal relaxation of benefit policies, such as "banking and real estate"; Second, "agriculture and gold" benefiting from inflation expectations; Third, the theme of policy support is related to "photovoltaic, energy storage, hydrogen energy, semiconductor, counting from east to west", etc.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) securities
is expected to usher in medium and short-term rebound
reviewing the history, it is found that the Shanghai stock index has fallen for 5 weeks or more, and there have been 17 times since 2005. The previous 16 times have rebounded with a probability of 62.5%, a bottom probability of 37.5%, a rebound probability of 83% and a bottom probability of 17% since 2016. Therefore, we believe that after the rapid release of pessimistic expectations such as economic downward pressure, inflation pressure and liquidity tightening pressure in the early market, the index level is expected to usher in a rebound in the medium and short-term dimensions.
Looking forward to the future, the A-share market in April is expected to return to the logic of policy expectation from obvious policy disappointment. This is mainly because the epidemic has caused obvious damage to China's economy in March and the following April. Consumption, travel, logistics and production are all affected. The poor structure of new credit also suggests that the economic recovery is not stable. In order to cope with the current downward pressure on the economy, China's policies still need to "focus on me". A new round of loose and stable growth policies is imperative. The market will have greater expectations for the Politburo meeting in late April.
Generally speaking, we remain optimistic in the short term. The market in April is expected to recover from the extreme disappointment with the policy, and we look forward to the new policy setting of the Politburo meeting. In the medium term, the market still faces the challenges of economic downturn, global inflation and China US relations, and the view remains neutral. At present, the key industries concerned are agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, real estate, banking, photovoltaic, military industry, medicine, coal, etc.
\u3000 \u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 788
positive factors are brewing
market positive factors are brewing and are optimistic about the performance of A-share market in April. In the direction of allocation, the financial reporting quarter focuses on industries and individual stocks whose performance may exceed expectations. In April, the financial reporting season began. Historically, companies with better than expected financial reports tend to perform better. For this year's earnings season, the current market's expectation of profit growth in 2022 is high, and the probability of low annual performance is high. Therefore, the stock prices of industries that still have good performance in the first quarter may have a better performance. On the one hand, according to the industry distribution of companies that previously disclosed the operating data from January to February, consumer industries such as food and beverage and medicine, and industries with steady growth direction such as construction and building materials may have a good performance. On the other hand, from the comparison between the market consensus expectation and the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises from January to February, the expectation of most industries is high, while the expected growth rate of consumer goods industries such as food and beverage is more similar to that of industrial enterprises. This is consistent with our recommendation for two main lines.
Main line 1: investors are advised to pay attention to the direction of steady growth. Under the background of steady growth and fiscal power, the direction of steady growth may be one of the most important main lines of the capital market. In the previous upward range of fixed asset investment growth in history, the relevant sectors of "steady growth" performed prominently. It is suggested to pay attention to the construction, building materials, banking, real estate and other industries in the traditional infrastructure direction, as well as the wind power, photovoltaic and other industries in the new infrastructure direction.
Main line 2: it is suggested to pay attention to the consumption direction. Historically, the consumer sector has performed well during the period when the inflation scissors have narrowed significantly. At the same time, the comparative advantage of the 22-year performance of the consumer sector may be more obvious. It is suggested that Baijiu and medicine should be highly regarded. In addition, household appliances and mass consumer goods benefiting from the subsidy policy. Offline consumer industries benefiting from the decline of the epidemic include aviation, airport, tourism and other industries.
Cinda securities
rebound strength may be stronger than that of February
in the short term, the current rebound will be stronger than that in February and may last until mid April. There are three main forces behind the rebound. The first is the oversold rebound. The maximum pullback of Wande in the whole a quarter has reached 20%, and the decline rate has exceeded the speed of the bear market in 2018. There is a need for technical oversold rebound; The second is the expectation of policy stability. On March 16, 2022, the financial stability Commission of the State Council held a special meeting, and the end of the policy is enough to support the monthly rebound of the market; The third is to revise the matching degree of valuation and performance before and after the quarterly report. Quarterly report is an important performance verification period. It is easier to rebound well before and after the quarterly report in a bear market. The first and second forces have fulfilled a lot, and the third force has not been concentrated. With the gradual disclosure of the first quarterly report in early April, the third force is likely to extend the rebound time to mid April. If we refer to the experience of U.S. stocks, the V-shaped reversal only needs the easing of monetary policy again, which is an upward risk that needs to be highly valued, which is very different from the history of a shares.
In terms of industry allocation, there are three core contradictions that strategically affect allocation. The global interest rate environment is tight, the overall profit center of A-share listed companies will decline compared with last year, and the economy is now between the bottom of policy and the bottom of credit. These three factors are conducive to value style, especially the style of absolute undervaluation. We believe that this style will continue in the first half of the year. It is suggested to pay strategic attention to finance, real estate and construction. Tactically, the market is still in the process of monthly rebound. It is recommended to pay attention to computer, media, military industry and medicine.
Aijian securities
looking for undervalued varieties based on performance
The decline of A shares also brought room for rise. In the first quarter of 2022, the market adjusted significantly, mostly from the short-term impact of external events, which had a great impact on market sentiment. However, from the perspective of the general trend, the market as a whole remained stable. The repair of market sentiment will bring the power of recovery to the market, which is expected to become the main tone of the market in the second quarter, including emotional repair and valuation repair. Therefore, for the decline in the first quarter, from another perspective, the decline also brings room for rise, especially the market characteristics dominated by trading opportunities since 2021, and fluctuations are the main source of profits.
From the perspective of performance growth and market valuation level, the current valuation level of the market is low, the safety margin is high, and there is a large valuation repair space. Due to the optimistic liquidity expectation, the role of liquidity in the improvement of valuation in the second quarter will be more obvious. Therefore, the previously overly pessimistic varieties will usher in better repair. At the same time, from the perspective of medium and long-term, we can still continue to pay attention to the growth opportunities of emerging industries. The adjustment of track sectors caused by short-term events once again provides opportunities for long-term entry.
The basis of market repair in the whole second quarter is good, so we can maintain moderate optimism.
After the decline in the first quarter, the market valuation was low and the safety margin was improved, which laid a good foundation for the stabilization and recovery of the market in the second quarter. Although there are still unstable factors at present, the probability of gradual improvement in the quarter is high, the market environment will gradually improve, and the expectation of valuation repair is high, but the process will be repeated, which is a gradual process as a whole. From the index point of view, we believe that the market space is not large, and the market is expected to return to the early shock range. At the same time, the structural characteristics are still obvious, and the sectors with valuation and growth advantages will perform prominently. We believe that the market will rebound in shock in the second quarter, and the opportunity is better than that in the first quarter. The strategy is to look for undervalued varieties from the perspective of valuation and performance. From the perspective of opportunity, we are optimistic about the valuation repair process of consumption and growth sectors. Industries such as national defense industry, electrical equipment, household electrical equipment, etc. At the same time, there are still active market transactions and thematic trading opportunities, such as new energy and environmental protection related to carbon reduction, big data from east to west, etc. at the same time, various concepts related to independent control will be important thematic opportunities in the market.
\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 909
three main lines expand balanced configuration
looking forward to April, although the end of the policy has appeared, due to the slow recovery of risk appetite and the difficulty of substantial increase of incremental funds in the short term, the main line switching of the market will still be frequent. Therefore, it is suggested to continue to maintain balanced allocation.
From the medium and long-term perspective, we are still optimistic about the three main lines of the third stage of growth style, steady growth and consumption recovery. However, in the short-term dimension, under the frequent switching of market hotspots, we suggest that the configuration should be more refined. Specifically, the short-term price of the steady growth chain is relatively high, and we can continue to participate in the upstream and downstream of real estate, banks and new and old infrastructure. On the one hand, in order to achieve the GDP growth target of 5.5%, the resonance of infrastructure and real estate is a necessary condition, and the upstream and downstream demand of the industry is expected to rise; On the other hand, under the background that the gold stability Committee emphasized "effectively invigorating the economy in the first quarter" and "preventing and resolving risks in the real estate field", the further relaxation of follow-up real estate policies and the accelerated commencement of infrastructure projects are high probability events, which greatly boosted the risk appetite of the sector.
In the medium and short term, we can continue to participate in the opportunities related to the main line of medicine and price rise. Before the inflection point of the epidemic, the travel chain is mainly concerned. Under the catalysis of multiple positive factors, the risk appetite of the pharmaceutical sector has been greatly boosted, and the valuation repair market can continue to be grasped in the short term; China's corn and soybean prices are still high under the influence of international Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) influence. Under the logic of smooth price increase of mandatory consumer goods, the performance of planting industry and chemical fertilizer is expected to be stronger; The performance of the travel chain has a great relationship with the epidemic. Although we are optimistic about the recovery of medium and long-term service consumption, it is recommended to focus on it before the inflection point of the epidemic.
For the growth style, it is suggested to adjust the growth main line of power equipment, electronics and other industries. Based on the in-depth resumption of the three growth articles, we are still optimistic about the growth style, and there is a third stage pull-out valuation market. However, under the background of low market risk preference and heavy wait-and-see mood in the near future, the probability of sharp pull-out valuation in the short term is low. Therefore, on the premise of medium and long-term optimism, it is suggested to adjust the main growth industries such as power equipment and electronics in the early stage.
\u3000 \u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 198
obvious structural characteristics in the bottom grinding stage
Will the focus of the current rebound after the end of July continue to stabilize? It is found that there have been six sharp declines since 2008. The bottom period will generally experience a grinding period lasting for 1-2 months, and then the market rebounds. The sign of the end of the bottom grinding period is that the turnover tends to be stable, and the standard deviation of month on month changes will be significantly narrowed. The space for rebound after the bottom grinding period depends on whether the economic fundamentals data are comprehensively improved. By comparison, it is found that the current market is more like a stage where there has been a bottom and there will be a small rebound after the bottom grinding period, similar to January 2012, September 2015 and February 2016. Grasping the growth rate of high performance can be in an invincible position. In the market bottoming period, stocks with high performance growth performed better. The performance of the industry with the highest increase of 25% in the previous market is better than that of all industries. Even if the market starts to rebound after the end of the grinding period, the main line of the industry is consistent with that in the early stage. Only within the same category of industry sectors, rotation may occur, which is reflected in the make-up effect of weak industries in the early stage.
On the whole, the bottom has appeared at present, and the structural characteristics of the bottom grinding period are very obvious. It is suggested to grasp some resource products with obvious price difference outside China, including coal and aluminum. And the real estate whose valuation is still in a depression and the trend of policy dragging the bottom is clear. Industry meso data show that there is a new energy industry chain with significantly improved demand growth in the industry. In addition, on the way from the huge earthquake to stabilization, high score red stocks deserve more attention. There are about 200 high score red stocks with a return of more than 5% of a shares, mainly distributed in banking, real estate, steel, household appliances and other industries.
