Since this year, many hot cities have increased the supply of land for rental housing, and the problems of high rent and difficult rental are expected to be alleviated.
So far, some parts of the country have announced land supply plans for this year. From the perspective of total supply, many hot first and second tier cities plan to expand the scale of housing supply, and the planned supply of residential land accounts for more than 20% of the total land supply scale. Among them, residential land in Guangzhou, Nanjing and other places accounts for about 30%.
The adjustment of housing supply structure continues the idea of the past two years: the land supply continues to tilt towards the construction of rental housing, and the land for separate rental housing has become the general direction.
Taking Beijing as an example, this year, the scale of rental housing land and commercial housing land (the lower limit is 300 hectares) is the same, and the supply rhythm of rental housing land has accelerated significantly; In Dongguan, Zhuhai, Zhongshan, Changzhou and other urban areas that are not included in the centralized land supply, a separate plan for rental housing land is also listed this year. The scale of rental land has reached 10% or even more than 20% in the whole residential land supply plan.
Several interviewees told first finance that in the long run, giving full play to the role of market mechanism, raising affordable rental housing from multiple subjects and channels, and promoting the coordinated development of market-oriented leasing and affordable leasing are effective ways to alleviate the contradiction between housing supply and demand in big cities and stabilize the rent level; However, in the short term, since it is difficult to form large-scale supply of newly leased land in the short term, the market regulation means of stabilizing house prices and controlling rents will be more effective.
land supply inclines to rental housing
“After statistics, we hope to build and raise 2.4 million affordable rental housing units throughout the year. We will raise 100000 new public rental housing units and 1.2 million shantytowns. At the same time, we will also accelerate the construction of the long-term rental housing market.” The relevant person in charge of the Ministry of housing and urban rural development recently disclosed the development plan of the national rental market and affordable housing market this year at a press conference.
2022 is the key year to complete the “14th five year plan” rental plan. The number of rental housing units planned to be built in 40 cities has doubled over the previous year. According to the prediction of Kerui real estate, the supply of rental homestead in key cities with centralized land supply will increase unabated this year.
So far, among the cities that have announced the land supply plan for rental housing in 2022, there are many hot cities in urban agglomerations such as the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta and Beijing Tianjin Hebei. First finance found that Beijing, Nanjing, Changzhou, Guangzhou, Zhuhai, Zhongshan, Xiamen and other cities with net population inflow and high GDP level planned to supply rental housing land this year, accounting for more than 10% of residential land.
Taking Guangdong as an example, according to the requirements of the implementation opinions of the general office of Guangdong Provincial People’s Government on accelerating the development of affordable rental housing, the proportion of land for rental housing listed separately in the annual residential land supply plan shall not be less than 10% in principle in key cities developing affordable rental housing, such as Guangzhou, Zhuhai, Dongguan and Zhongshan. However, according to the calculation of annual rental housing land released by Guangzhou, Zhuhai, Dongguan and Zhongshan this year, the supply reached 92.89 hectares, 20.82 hectares, 20.1 hectares and 23.93 hectares respectively, accounting for about 12%, 10.72%, 10% and 11.2% respectively, all exceeding the planning objectives.
Among them, Beijing is an area with a large scale and proportion of land supply for rental housing in the current year.
According to Beijing’s 2022 construction land supply plan, this year’s construction land supply plan will arrange 300 hectares of commercial residential land (lower limit) and rental housing land respectively according to the principle of equal proportion, and all the planned indicators will be implemented to specific plots in the first quarter.
As of the first quarter of this year, 71 hectares of rental housing land in Beijing had been supplied, involving 9 districts such as Chaoyang, Haidian, Fengtai, Daxing, Jingkai, Shunyi, Tongzhou, Huairou and Changping, completing 24% of the annual tasks, a double increase over the same period last year.
The Beijing Municipal Commission of planning and natural resources made it clear that the land supply plan, adhering to the positioning of “housing without speculation”, aims to accelerate the development of rental housing and promote the establishment of a housing system of “multi-body supply, multi-channel guarantee and simultaneous rent and purchase”.
How to promote “multi-agent supply”? The relevant person in charge of the Beijing Municipal Commission of planning and natural resources recently introduced that nearly 80% of the land in the project announced this time will be used for the construction of indemnificatory rental housing, which can effectively alleviate the lack of structural supply in the housing rental market in Beijing. At the same time, the land for public rental housing to meet the needs of waiting families will be guaranteed according to the actual needs.
In terms of guaranteed rental housing, the centralized rental housing project is about 115 hectares, accounting for 37%; About 103 hectares of projects are constructed by using the stock of idle houses and self useful land of enterprises, accounting for 34%; The projects using the supporting land of the industrial park are about 19 hectares, accounting for 6%; About 70 hectares of new state-owned construction land were used for construction projects, accounting for 23%.
However, although indemnificatory rental housing has become the main starting point for accelerating the development of rental housing in many places, the way of land supply varies from place to place.
Li Yujia, chief researcher of Guangdong housing policy research center, told China first finance and economics that compared with northern cities such as Beijing, the scale and volume of new affordable rental housing land in southern cities such as Guangzhou will be more limited. “Competitive construction” will still be a way of new rental supply in Guangzhou and other places this year, especially affordable rental supply.
“Competitive allocation” refers to the allocation of rental housing on commercial residential land. In the past six months, the national land market has continued to cool down. In the first batch of centralized land supply carried out this year, Beijing, Fuzhou, Hefei, Qingdao, Wuhan, Xiamen, Chengdu, Chongqing, Changsha and other cities have taken measures to reduce or cancel the proportion of plots containing affordable housing and market rental housing, and cancel the “construction of rental talent housing” to reduce the land acquisition threshold of real estate enterprises.
However, in the “Guangzhou 2022 construction land supply plan”, it is still mentioned that this year, we should strengthen the public transfer of commercial residential land and the construction of indemnificatory rental housing, and continue to expand the supply of indemnificatory rental housing through multiple channels by limiting the land price, competing for self-supporting construction, publicly transferring all self-supporting land, and using collective construction land, stock land of enterprises and institutions, industrial supporting land, etc.
Li Yujia said that no matter whether the land auction regulations such as “competitive construction” of cities with centralized land supply in the near future have changed or not, it will not have a great impact on the supply of short-term leasing market. There are at least two reasons: first, the proportion of “competing for construction” is relatively limited, and the stock transformation is still the main way of the development of indemnificatory rental housing; Second, new rental housing has entered the market for a relatively long time, and after the market is stable, the channel for loose policy adjustment may be narrowed again.
will the rent drop
According to the housing rent index of key first and second tier cities released by the Joint Laboratory of housing big data and Weifang Research Institute, since the fourth quarter of last year, the rent of core first and second tier cities has continued to fall. In January and February this year, the rent rebounded again, and the ring on ring increase of rent in Beijing, Shenzhen and other places has an expanding trend.
Since the end of 2020, many key cities have increased the preparation for the construction of affordable rental housing and continued to develop the long-term rental housing market.
So why is the market rent level still difficult to stabilize and easy to rebound? As more cities plan to lease housing land separately and make greater efforts to increase the supply of rental land, will the rent level of hot cities change greatly in the next few years?
Li Yujia believes that the current major rental demand in big cities comes from new citizens and young people. The affordable rental housing for these groups has not yet formed a large-scale supply. Some time ago, all localities mainly carried out the thorough investigation of key areas, the supply of new land has not yet formed, and the way of social capital participating in stock transformation is also in the exploratory period. Therefore, the contradiction between supply and demand has not been significantly changed.
“Since the second half of last year, the rental index counted by major institutions has been declining, which is largely due to the decline in the price of second-hand houses, or the substantial increase in the supply of second-hand houses. There is a large supply of decentralized rental houses, which has a significant effect on stabilizing rents.” Li Yujia said.
Huang Hui, senior analyst of Shell Research Institute, told China business that compared with new construction, the houses with revitalized stock generally only need a transformation cycle of 3-6 months to be traded. This means that raising rental housing in the way of stock revitalization can increase the supply of affordable rental housing in a short time, and the impact on rent is more significant in the short term.
“The impact of newly-built rental housing on the rent level needs to be in 1-2 years, and the layout of social capital such as real estate enterprises needs to be made in advance. The cycle of influencing the market rent level is long.” Huang Hui said.
However, she also believes that new construction is a very important way to supply rental housing. Compared with stock revitalization, its product design is more in line with the needs of tenants. “Many big cities have put new construction projects into operation, such as Shanghai, Beijing and so on.”
