Recently, when the beautiful “transcripts” of major listed banks in 2021 were disclosed one after another, the banking sector has also been popular on a large scale for many days in a row.
On April 1, except for the flat Agricultural Bank Of China Limited(601288) share price, 41 stocks in the banking sector were all red. Among them, Qilu Bank Co.Ltd(601665) trading limit shortly after opening Jiangsu Jiangyin Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(002807) , Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) , Zhejiang Shaoxing Ruifeng Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601528) increased by more than 5%; In addition, 13 bank stocks, including Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(603323) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , Qingdao Rural Commercial Bank Corporation(002958) , rose by more than 3%. Overall, the market value of the banking sector soared by more than 100 billion yuan a day.
Looking back on the past March, when the market fluctuated sharply, the banking sector suffered a round of sharp decline in the first half of the month, and the Shenwan bank index fell by 11.4%; With the disclosure date of the annual report approaching in mid and late March, the A-share banking sector gradually embarked on the road of rebound. It closed up continuously in the last five trading days of March, and the banking sector showed a “deep V” trend as a whole in the past month.
The Chinese reporter of the securities firm noted that, on the one hand, among the A-share listed banks that have disclosed their performance in 2021, most of the net profits showed double-digit growth, the net profit growth rate of some banks exceeded 30%, the non-performing rate decreased, and the asset quality improved; On the other hand, with the continuous “deregulation” of the real estate market policies, the purchase restrictions were relaxed in many places, and the mortgage interest rate and down payment ratio were reduced, the stocks in the real estate sector also showed a significant recovery.
Qilu Bank Co.Ltd(601665) limit, several bank stocks rose more than 5%
On April 1, Qilu Bank Co.Ltd(601665) led the rise in the banking sector and closed the trading limit shortly after the opening, closing at 5.73 yuan / share. On June 18 last year, Qilu Bank Co.Ltd(601665) returned to a market and achieved the “six Board”, reaching a high of 12.11 yuan / share, but then the stock price of the Bank fell all the way and didn’t touch the daily limit again until April 1.
Qilu Bank Co.Ltd(601665) led the rise, and many banks also rose by more than 5% on the same day. Among them, Jiangsu Jiangyin Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(002807) rose 6.75%, Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) 5.75%, Zhejiang Shaoxing Ruifeng Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601528) 5.38%, and 13 bank stocks such as Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(603323) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , Qingdao Rural Commercial Bank Corporation(002958) rose more than 3%.
“Foreign capital inflow or the motivation of Qilu Bank Co.Ltd(601665) price limit.” Cheng Yu, an independent investor, guessed that “the stock price trend of the bank is highly consistent with the FTSE China A50 Index, and there is a large amount of single purchase funds, or foreign institutions.” According to the data of China stock market news, Qilu Bank Co.Ltd(601665) 3 on March 31, the number of positions held by Shanghai and Shenzhen Gangtong institutions increased from 880000 to 1.8 million. Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, CICC and other institutions were the main force to increase their holdings. On April 1, the bank’s super large single net inflow exceeded 260 million yuan, accounting for 35.04%.
An equity investment manager interviewed believed that Qilu Bank Co.Ltd(601665) ‘s revenue and net profit grew rapidly. Under the market background of the overall recovery of the banking sector, the bank’s share price rose with the support of performance fundamentals. “Small and medium-sized banks with outstanding growth also have more upward momentum in the current market environment.”
Previously, Qilu Bank Co.Ltd(601665) share price has risen slightly for two consecutive days. On March 29, Qilu Bank Co.Ltd(601665) disclosure performance express showed that the bank recorded an operating revenue of 10.167 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 28.11%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.036 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.52%. By the end of 2021, the non-performing loan ratio of the bank was 1.35%, down 0.08 percentage points from the end of the previous year; The provision coverage rate was 253.95%, an increase of 39.35 percentage points over the end of the previous year.
“On the other hand, such short-term buying is more like a hot money method, which is also the reason why small and medium-sized enterprises with small sectors have been strong in recent two days, reflecting the concentrated pursuit of market sentiment in the banking sector.” He told Chinese reporters of securities companies.
banking sector rose strongly, with a significant increase in performance last year
with the disclosure of bank annual reports, the banking sector has risen for five consecutive days. In terms of individual stocks, Jiangsu Jiangyin Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(002807) has increased the most in the past five days, exceeding 20%, and Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(002839) , Wuxi Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(600908) and Wuxi Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(600908) also increased by more than 10% in the same period
In fact, in the past March, bank stocks also experienced a continuous sharp decline. They hit the bottom on March 15. Among the 13 trading days in the middle and early March, they closed down in seven trading days, and the Shenwan bank index fell by 11.4%. In mid and late March, bank stocks finally stopped falling and rebounded, and “recovered their lost ground” at the end of the month, returning to near the valuation in early March.
According to the data, in terms of capital flow, the net inflow of main capital in the past five days reached 8.356 billion yuan, ranking fourth among the 31 industries, second only to real estate, medicine, biology and media industries.
The recent rebound of the financial sector has become a common consensus of the financial sector; Second, the bank’s annual report data released recently is beautiful; Third, the market has optimistic expectations for further stable growth and economic recovery, which is good for the banking sector; Fourth, the valuation of the banking sector is at a low level, and many bank stocks are still in a net breaking state, “coupled with the high stock market rate of banks, the impact of factors such as short-term sporadic cases will always pass”.
Since the middle and late March, the bank’s annual reports have been intensively disclosed, and many banks have handed over more than expected “transcripts” China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) , Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) and other banks achieved double-digit growth in operating revenue and net profit. Among them, Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , China Citic Bank Corporation Limited(601998) also announced in the disclosure of the annual report that they planned to distribute the highest proportion of cash dividends since listing.
real estate policy adjustment, expected improvement of bank asset quality
Looking forward to the second quarter of 2022, Ping An Securities Research Report believes that with the force of steady growth policy and the correction of real estate policy, the banking industry will still be in the channel of negative expectation improvement. At present, the static valuation level of this sector is only 0.63x, which is still at an absolute low in history and the safety margin is sufficient.
Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co.Ltd(000166) Securities believes that although the market has hidden worries about the non-performing risk of banks, the quality of bank assets will continue to improve in 2022, and the risk digestion ability of listed banks is more expected to be poor; Real estate risk has a spark, but it will not start a prairie fire.
According to the judgment of the above institutions, “From the fourth quarter of last year to the meeting of the Finance Committee in March, all regulatory authorities have made intensive calls to maintain the stability of real estate. We have combed the credit granting and use of real estate enterprises that have been out of danger by banks. We can see that although large state-owned banks have a higher credit scale to real estate enterprises, the risks are more dispersed and the proportion of credit scale is smaller; the differentiation of joint-stock banks is obvious, but some excellent banks such as China Merchants Bank, Ping An and Societe Generale have less credit or quit in time, and they are fully disclosed at the same time Real estate risk exposure and its non-performing rate in response to market concerns. In addition, some urban rural commercial banks located in high-quality areas and focusing on cultivating their familiar customer base have extremely limited real estate risk exposure. “
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) said that the local regulation and control policies continued to be loosened and spread rapidly, and the demand side policies were adjusted more frequently. Last September, the real estate market ushered in the “policy end”. Since 2022, the policy warm wind has been blowing frequently. Nearly 60 cities across the country have relaxed the real estate regulation and control policies. In the early stage, it was mainly the third and fourth tier cities, and now it has been expanded to the hot second tier cities.
Specifically, in March, Zhengzhou relaxed the purchase restrictions, and the loan interest rates of the first and second homes in Wuhan were reduced by about 40 basis points. The four first tier cities in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen mainly followed LPR to reduce the mortgage interest rates. 17 second tier cities and 32 third and fourth tier cities have implemented real estate relaxation policies, including reducing the proportion of down payment, reducing loan interest rates, increasing talent attraction, issuing house purchase subsidies and increasing the amount of provident fund loans. There are a wide range of policies.
