Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
YueKai Securities: 4 month a stock shock repair market is expected to continue focus on two main lines
We expect that in April, under the hedge of foreign factors, the A-share shock repair market is expected to continue. The change of profit expectation will lead to the differentiation of the market. It is suggested that investors should pay more attention to individual stocks than index, and focus on two main lines around the certainty of performance and the layout of policy force end.
First, the performance window is approaching, and pay attention to the pre hi sector of the first quarterly report. April will usher in a performance intensive disclosure period, and the market will return to the verification period of performance. From the perspective of industry prosperity, the performance certainty of basic chemical industry, electronics, medical biology, national defense and military industry is relatively stronger. It is suggested that investors should pay attention to the performance of the first quarterly report in advance in combination with the matching degree of valuation.
Second, grasp the main line of policy. As the main policy line, steady growth will remain the main market in the long run. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to new and old infrastructure and investment opportunities in the consumer industry to expand domestic demand. In addition, the energy sector is expected to receive rapid development opportunities and high-quality policy suggestions, and the energy sector is expected to pay close attention to the high-quality investment sector in the near future.
When it comes to investment recommendations, the top ten gold stock combinations are: from the perspective of the investment recommendations, as the investment proposals come to view, and the top ten of the top ten gold stock combinations are: the Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) 271 , Topchoice Medical Co.Inc(600763) .
BOCI Securities: the external risk disturbance is still in April month configuration is still recommended to pay attention to the cost performance
The policy bottom has been consolidated, but the trend reversal needs to wait for further clear signals. On March 16, the finance committee meeting further consolidated the policy bottom, but after the meeting, the market's expectations of two interest rate cuts failed. The direction of the future policy seems clear, but the actual action still hasn't made progress. In April, we can pay attention to whether the statement made at the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee exceeded expectations. In addition, the impact of China's repeated epidemic on the economy will be reflected in the March data. The still weak fundamentals are not enough to support the continuous recovery of market confidence, and the arrival of the economic bottom still needs to wait. In addition, April is the intensive disclosure period of the first quarterly report of listed companies. It is a consensus that the performance of upstream resource products is more deterministic, while the difference lies in whether the fundamentals of the high boom track can be positively verified. If the performance exceeds expectations, the market style may return to growth. If the performance is flat, the market sentiment is still difficult to improve.
The external risk disturbance is still ongoing, and it is still recommended to pay attention to the cost performance of the configuration in April. There have been positive signs of recent peripheral conflicts, but before the sanctions are lifted, the rising commodity prices caused by supply shocks and the increased risk of global "stagflation" can not be ignored. Meanwhile, at the beginning of May, the Federal Reserve's second interest rate increase and table reduction plans were probably implemented, and the further rise of US bond interest rate will significantly suppress the valuation of equity assets. When the external risk disturbance is still in progress and the reversal of China's trend still needs to wait for signals, we suggest that the allocation strategy should still focus on cost performance and look for high-quality targets with both attack and defense under the two main lines of steady growth and high prosperity.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) : 4 month enters the financial reporting season! Historically, companies with better than expected earnings tend to perform better
Focus on industries and individual stocks whose performance may exceed expectations in the earnings season. In April, the financial reporting season began. Historically, companies with better than expected financial reports tend to perform better. For this year's earnings season, the current market's expectation of profit growth in 2022 is high, and the probability of low annual performance is high. Therefore, the stock prices of industries that still have good performance in the first quarter may have a better performance. On the one hand, according to the industry distribution of companies that previously disclosed the operating data from January to February, consumer industries such as food and beverage and medicine, and industries with steady growth direction such as construction and building materials may have a good performance. On the other hand, from the comparison between the market consensus expectation and the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises from January to February, the expectation of most industries is high, while the expected growth rate of consumer goods industries such as food and beverage is more similar to that of industrial enterprises. This is consistent with our recommendation for two main lines.
Main line 1: steady growth direction. Under the background of steady growth and fiscal power, the direction of steady growth may be one of the most important main lines of the capital market. In the previous upward range of fixed asset investment growth in history, the relevant sectors of "steady growth" performed prominently. It is suggested to pay attention to the construction, building materials, banking, real estate and other industries in the traditional infrastructure direction, as well as the wind power, photovoltaic and other industries in the new infrastructure direction.
Main line 2: consumption direction. Historically, the consumer sector has performed well during the period when the inflation scissors have narrowed significantly. At the same time, the comparative advantage of the 22-year performance of the consumer sector may be more obvious. Suggestions: 1) high definition Baijiu and medicine. 2) Household appliances and mass consumer goods benefiting from the subsidy policy. 3) Offline consumer industries benefiting from the decline of the epidemic include aviation, airport, tourism and other industries.
The investment proposal comes from the investment proposal, and the four month gold portfolio is seen from the investment proposal, which is the four month gold portfolio: the following is the four month gold portfolio: the following is the four month gold portfolio: the following is the four month gold portfolio: the '' Jiangxi Synergy Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300636) \ , Rianlon Corporation(300596) .
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) : potential exceeding expectations and risk points still need to be paid attention to in the second quarter
In the second quarter, we still need to pay attention to the following potential unexpected and risk points. The possibility of exceeding expectations is more from China's policy relaxation: 1) "steady growth" is still a "hard requirement", and there is room and impetus for subsequent monetary and credit relaxation. 2) The risks of real estate enterprises are expected to "dismantle mines" in succession, and more favorable liquidity and policy support are also needed. 3) The decision-making level has a clear determination to maintain the stability of the capital market.
Risk points and uncertainties are more from overseas: 1) the Fed's expectation of raising interest rates and shrinking the table will still curb risk appetite. 2) While liquidity is tightening, US stock profits are also facing downward revision. If U.S. stocks fluctuate sharply again, it may be a drag on a shares. 3) The impact of zhonggai shares is not clear, or there may be further disturbance. 4) The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues. Recently, global commodity prices have rebounded again, and it is difficult for global stagflation concerns to subside quickly. Therefore, the risk points in the second quarter mainly came from the outside. If the overseas risks and shocks continue to deduce under extreme circumstances, the rest of A-Shares in the current bottom area may take longer.
In terms of operation strategy, on the one hand, the pressure of scientific and technological growth, regardless of valuation or congestion, has been significantly improved, and the deterministic direction of performance (photovoltaic, semiconductor, energy storage, etc.) is configured at the bottom of the emotional repair window; On the other hand, the direction of "steady growth" is clear, and there is still room for repair in banks, real estate, etc. The decision-making level continues to release the signal of "stable growth", and the pattern of "external chaos and internal stability" is determined. The sectors of state-owned enterprises, such as real estate, infrastructure, banks and securities companies, are both safe and policy driven. For the growth of science and technology, combined with the ten indicators proposed in the "new half army" timing framework, the relevant sectors have entered the bottom area. At present, we can make a deep rebound along the photovoltaic, wind power, semiconductor and other sectors with strong performance certainty. At the same time, we can also find "small high-tech" from bottom to top in the bottom area based on the boom trend and profit growth. Based on industry recommendations, we have selected a selection of gold stock portfolios from April 2022 based on industry recommendations, and we have selected the gold stock portfolio of April 2022 based on industry recommendations that we have selected from the gold stock portfolio of April 2022 based on industry recommendations: the 601 Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) 2012 , Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) .
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities: opportunities in stocks with low-risk characteristics! Focus on the three main lines of steady growth, upstream inflation and consumption
Opportunities in stocks with low-risk characteristics. 1) As risk appetite declines, investment ideas should be changed: from chasing risk to aversion to risk, investment opportunities are not in the sector with high-risk characteristics, but in the sector with low-risk characteristics. 2) As the risk appetite decreases, the investment style should be switched: instead of looking at the company through a telescope, we should look at the company through a microscope. The key to stock selection lies in the sectors with high certainty of earnings and relatively reasonable valuation. Value stocks are better than growth stocks, and dividend & high dividend strategy / undervalued value is dominant, but the range of low-risk characteristics and earnings certainty can be wider.
In terms of industry allocation, there are three main lines: steady growth, upstream inflation and consumption. Since the beginning of the year, the market valuation has fallen. The investment should focus on stocks with low-risk characteristics, pay attention to the intersection of undervalued value and EPS improvement, and be optimistic about steady growth, upstream inflation and consumption. Key recommended directions: 1) steady growth of the line, optimistic about the g-end or public investment direction: photovoltaic, wind power, power operation, power grid, construction, etc; 2) Upstream inflation line, optimistic: coal, chemical resources; 3) consumption line, optimistic about the reverse and stability of profits: pig, Baijiu, etc.
April gold stock portfolio includes: 1. Building materials: Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) ; 2. Coal: China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) ; 3. Building: Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) ; 4. Steel: Fangda Special Steel Technology Co.Ltd(600507) ; 5. Agriculture: Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) ; 6. Dianxin: Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) / Yangling Metron New Material Co.Ltd(300861) ; 7. Machinery: Zhejiang Xcc Group Co.Ltd;(603667) ; 8. Military industry: Avic Jonhon Optronic Technology Co.Ltd(002179) ; 9. Finance: Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) .
Dongguan Securities: the overall valuation of the market tends to be more reasonable "market bottom" is expected to be gradually constructed
According to the market judgment in April, A-Shares are expected to stabilize and repair. The impact of the Fed's interest rate hike on the market has gradually eased, but geopolitical conflicts and their impact on inflation expectations still have an impact on the market, and the external environment is still complex. In China, affected by the scattered epidemic, the continuous rise of commodity prices and the relative downturn of consumption, the momentum of economic expansion has weakened, and the PMI has returned below 50%, indicating increased economic pressure. However, the central bank's regular meeting in the first quarter clearly increased the implementation of prudent monetary policy, which will provide stronger support for the real economy. The central bank's RRR reduction in the second quarter is still expected.
In particular, the meeting of the Finance Committee in March released a strong signal to maintain stability, boosted market confidence, continued to ferment the impact on the market, and the "policy bottom" was gradually clarified. After the market experienced a sharp correction in the first quarter of this year, the selling pressure in the short-term market has also been greatly released, the overall valuation of the market has become more reasonable, and the "market bottom" is expected to be built gradually. Therefore, for April, we believe that with the gradual stabilization of the peripheral market and the accelerated implementation of the stable growth policy after the two sessions, there is an overall pattern of stabilizing and repairing, and gradually build a "market bottom". In particular, if the policy is strengthened, it does not rule out the early opening of the technical rebound. Pay attention to the change of energy and capital flow.
Huaxin Securities: the intertwined long and short factors at home and abroad the process from the bottom of policy to the bottom of market is doomed to twists and turns
In April, the A-share market may suffer from shock: the long and short factors at home and abroad are intertwined, and the process from the bottom of the policy to the bottom of the market is doomed to twists and turns. However, it is certain that under the disturbance of the epidemic, the economic data in the first quarter will be under pressure again, and the necessity and strength of steady growth will be strengthened again. It is suggested to pay attention to the large infrastructure, large real estate and large financial sectors that benefit from steady growth and wide credit; The easing of the situation in Russia and Ukraine has driven the marginal upward of market risk preference, and the incremental funds have returned to a shares, superimposing performance catalysis and loose expectations. The high economic growth of PEG in a reasonable range deserves attention; In the late stage of economic recession, stability and cyclical style are relatively dominant, coupled with the high commodity prices priced abroad, the trading logic of re inflation is still supported.
April gold stock portfolio includes: 1. New energy vehicles: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) ; 2. New energy vehicles: Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) ; 3. Medium and small cap: Sichuan Road & Bridge Co.Ltd(600039) ; 4. Computer: Shenzhen Tvt Digital Technology Co.Ltd(002835) ; 5. Power equipment: Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) ; 6. Electronic: Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc(603986) ; 7. New metal materials: China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) ; 8. Media: Shanghai Yaoji Technology Co.Ltd(002605) ; 9. Media: Zhejiang Huace Film And Tv Co.Ltd(300133) ; 10. Food and beverage: Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) .
Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) : the high and low rotation of different industries and investment themes will be the theme of the whole year in the second quarter, we should pay attention to the sectors with high valuation and high performance price ratio
At the level of A-share allocation in the second quarter, under the pressure of uncertain factors such as the Fed's interest rate hike and high global inflation, it is difficult to have a style or a track throughout the year in 2022. The high and low rotation of different industries and investment themes will be the main theme of the whole year. This year, we should pay more attention to the investment opportunities of reversing fundamental difficulties and improving policy expectations; At the same time, in the macro environment of "quasi stagflation" in China in the second quarter, we should pay attention to the sectors with high valuation and performance cost performance.
Specifically: first, "steady growth" and "wide credit" are still the key policy support directions, while infrastructure and real estate are the two main focuses of steady growth and wide credit. The latter will play an increasingly important role. There are still allocation opportunities in the second quarter of this year, focusing on the large financial and real estate infrastructure industry chain with low Pb.
II. Pay attention to the sectors benefiting from the impact of economic stagflation and geopolitical crisis, focusing on agriculture and gold.
III. track stocks may usher in a certain investment window period. Starting from April, A-Shares will enter an intensive quarterly disclosure period; Since the substantial adjustment of the market in March, many companies have also disclosed their operating data from January to February in advance; With the phased implementation of the interest rate increase at the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in mid March and the approaching disclosure period of the first quarterly report, track stocks may usher in a certain investment window period. Focus on semiconductor, photovoltaic wind power, energy storage, automotive intelligence and other tracks that benefit from the booming downstream demand and large long-term space.
IV. for the consumption sector, the opportunity is better in the second half of 2022. On the one hand, in the first half of the year, China's economic pressure is still large, and the epidemic and imported inflation will significantly suppress the middle and lower reaches; On the other hand, from the month on month prediction, the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds is more likely to rise in the second half of this year, which also indicates that the recovery of the overall economic heat needs to wait for the second half of this year.
From the perspective of investment proposals, the focus of April is seen in terms of the investment proposals, and the focus of April is seen in terms of the investment proposals. The focus of April is the following: Zhengzhou Coal Mining Machinery Group Co.Ltd(601717) \ .
