In the past two years, the structural market continued to deduce, and differentiation continued to become the key word of fund performance in the first quarter of this year. From the performance of active equity funds (including common stock funds, partial stock mixed funds, flexible allocation funds and balanced mixed funds) in the first three months, the highest returns exceeded 30%, and some funds have lost nearly 30% this year.
9 only the yield in the first three months exceeded 10%
On the whole, as of the end of March, the average loss of active equity funds has been 14.28% this year, and nearly 80 funds have achieved positive returns, including nine funds, including Wanjia macro timing Multi Strategy, Wanjia Xinli, Wanjia selection, Wanjia Yihe, CAITONG smart growth a, CAITONG scientific and technological innovation a, CAITONG Fuxin, jinyuanshun anyuanqi and CAITONG new vision a, with a return of more than 10% in the first three months.
Active equity funds with the highest yield in the first quarter of this year
Through careful analysis, it is found that the active equity funds with leading performance in the first three months are mainly divided into two categories, one is the heavy warehouse real estate and coal sector, the other is the heavy warehouse farming, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry, and they all adopt a more concentrated playing method
Specifically, the returns of 10000 macro timing and multi strategy, 10000 Xinli, 10000 selected funds and other funds managed by the Yellow Sea in the first three months were more than 25%. Taking the macro timing strategy of Wanjia, which has the highest return, as an example, its positions are quite concentrated, almost all of which are related to coal and real estate.
According to the latest fund’s 2021 annual report, as of the end of last year, 10000 macro timing and multi strategy held 18 stocks, including 15 stock funds, with the market value accounting for more than 2% of the fund’s net worth. Including the following: Gemdale Corporation(600383) ;, Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co.Ltd(000069) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) , Shanxi Lu’An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , etc.
Several funds managed by Jin Zicai, assistant general manager of CAITONG fund, also dominated the top 10 of the list in the year. Different from the focus of the Yellow Sea, jinzicai pays more attention to the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry, especially the aquaculture sector.
From the perspective of the top ten heavy warehouse shares that came from the top ten of the top ten heavy warehouse shares that came from the top ten of the last year that ended last year. The top ten heavy warehouse shares at the end of last year, from the top ten of the top ten of the top ten of the last year that came from the top ten of the top ten of the last year that came from the top ten of the top ten of the last year. The top ten of the top ten of the top ten of the top ten heavy warehouse shares that came from the top ten of the last year that came from the top ten of the top ten of the top ten of the last year that ended last year. The top ten of the top ten heavy warehouse shares at the end of last year, as of the end of last year last year, the top ten of the top ten of the top ten of the last year, which included: Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) . From the perspective of hidden heavy positions of the fund, the market value of China Southern Airlines Company Limited(600029) , Wuxi Chipown Micro-Electronics Limited(688508) , Zhejiang Huatong Meat Products Co.Ltd(002840) , Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) and other funds also accounts for more than 3% of the net value of the fund.
It is worth noting that in the fourth quarter of last year, JINZI made a large-scale adjustment to the position portfolio. He withdrew from the large cycle track he insisted on in the previous three quarters, made a large-scale reduction in the pro cycle industries such as chemical industry, significantly increased the allocation of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industries, and slightly increased the allocation of aviation, hotel, food and other industries.
Jin Zicai said that in the first three quarters of last year, he insisted on the track of large cycle and achieved good results on the whole. However, with the beginning of mid September, the price slope of each subdivided field became steeper. Abnormal factors led to the rapid rise of prices and the stock price peaked in advance. “We have also learned valuable investment experience and rich experience from it. In the fourth quarter of 2022, our reconstituted breeding industry chain achieved good results.”
Jin Zicai also stressed in an interview with the Shanghai Securities News: “the investment framework of cyclical stocks and growth stocks can be integrated together, and can continuously promote each other, and the two are not in an opposite position. Because most growth stocks essentially have periodic characteristics, which may come from industrial changes, policies or competitive environment.”
leader’s outlook
Standing at the current time point, what kind of play will these leaders take in the future on the whole, most fund managers are cautious and stick to the heavy positions in the fourth quarter of last year
Huang Hai said that at present, the global risk aversion is strong, and it is still recommended to maintain a neutral shock view of the market in the short term. In terms of industry allocation, we will continue to be firmly optimistic about the real estate sector benefiting from energy (coal) and steady growth policies.
Jin Zicai said that 2022 is another year when commodity prices fall, and the cost pressure of many middle and downstream industries is expected to be relieved. From the demand side, industries with higher probability than expected will be in various fields of service industry and mandatory consumption. If the industry still has price elasticity or roe elasticity, it will be the main direction.
\u3000\u3000 “After three years of bull market in the equity market, objectively speaking, it will be more difficult for the equity market to realize returns in 2022. In a complex and volatile market environment, we still need to strive to obtain better returns for holders in 2022. We also realize that with the upward trend of interest rates outside China, there is a risk of downward valuation in most industries. Although we are difficult to be optimistic about the overall market, we are more optimistic about the sectors in which we have heavy positions Great confidence. We will do a good job in stock selection in several promising industries from the two aspects of performance trend and valuation trend. ” Jin Zicai said.
Jiang Cheng, fund manager of Zhongtai Xingyuan value optimization, suggested that we might as well focus on the long term. “We can’t provide the research and judgment on the market trend in the coming year, and we don’t know which style or sector will perform better. In my opinion, these are the results of Mr. market’s dice. But looking at the long term, the market is very friendly. The longer the investment cycle is, the higher the expected rate of return is, and the lower the loss may be. This is a simple truth that few people care about. We care about it, so we always insist on making long-term decisions and don’t choose the time in the short term The results are not bad, and I look forward to it in the future. What affects the long-term profitability is not the growth rate, but the competition pattern. Under the stock economy, the pattern of most industries will tend to be optimized, which will improve the profitability of enterprises with competitive advantages. ”
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