Since the special meeting of the Finance Committee of the State Council on March 16, the real estate sector has closed 11 positive lines in 13 trading days and seven daily limits in 8 days, with an increase of 33% in just half a month. In terms of individual stocks, bull stocks emerge one after another from Sundy Land Investment Co.Ltd(600077) to Tianjin Tianbao Infrastructure Co.Ltd(000965) and from Yango Group Co.Ltd(000671) to Cccg Real Estate Corporation Limited(000736) .
On the evening of April 1, Cccg Real Estate Corporation Limited(000736) received a letter of regulatory concern from the second tier real estate developer of central enterprises, which increased by 150% in half a month. From the content, most of them were regular inquiries about stock price changes, such as whether undisclosed information should be disclosed, whether the controlling shareholders had major operational matters, whether they violated the fair disclosure of information, and whether relevant personnel were suspected of insider trading.
Compared with the attention letter, Cccg Real Estate Corporation Limited(000736) in the short term, more attention should be paid to the fact that institutional funds began to ship on a large scale. On April 1, after hours, four institutions were piled up in the top five of the Long Hu list, with a total sale of up to 600 million yuan, accounting for 43% of the transaction volume of the day, while the top five of the purchase only bought 171 million yuan.
The recent speculation is mainly about small real estate and "garbage real estate". Brokerage analysts believe that from a longer-term perspective, holding high credit real estate enterprises is a more stable strategy. The advantages of financing will promote high credit real estate enterprises to obtain advantages in the land and M & a market. The continuous land acquisition and promotion ability and high-quality credit endorsement are also expected to seize the opportunity when the demand recovers and further improve the market share.
half month rise of 153%, attracting regulatory attention
Recalling that Cccg Real Estate Corporation Limited(000736) this round of rise also began at the meeting of the financial committee of the State Council. On March 16, its share price once plunged and touched the low of 6.3 yuan / share, but after the news of the meeting of the financial committee was released, it rose sharply in the session and finally closed up 2%. Since then, it has been out of control. It has received 13 consecutive suns, and recorded 7 daily limit in the last 8 trading days. In this way, starting from around 6.3 yuan to the latest 15.55 yuan on April 1, Cccg Real Estate Corporation Limited(000736) 13 trading days increased by 153%.
Such a vigorous trend ushered in regulatory attention. On the evening of April 1, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange issued a letter of concern, throwing four questions. Specifically, most of them belong to the regular inquiry of abnormal stock price fluctuations.
First, the Shenzhen stock exchange requires the company to pay attention to and verify relevant matters, confirm whether there are major information that should be disclosed but not disclosed, and whether there are major changes in the fundamentals of the company in accordance with the provisions of "No. 1 announcement form of abnormal fluctuations in stock transactions of listed companies in other matters" in the guide for self discipline supervision of listed companies of Shenzhen Stock Exchange No. 2 - announcement form.
Second, ask the controlling shareholder and actual controller of the company in writing to explain whether the controlling shareholder and actual controller of the company plan to transfer equity, restructure assets and other matters that have a significant impact on the company, and ask them to reply in writing.
Third, according to the relevant regulations of Shenzhen Stock Exchange, explain in detail the recent research of reception institutions and individual investors, whether the company's undisclosed annual report information is provided to a third party other than the annual audit accounting firm, and whether there is a violation of the fair disclosure of information.
Fourth, check whether the company's controlling shareholders, actual controllers, directors, supervisors, senior managers and their immediate family members buy and sell the company's shares and whether they are suspected of insider trading.
Shenzhen stock exchange requires the company to make a written reply to the above verification and disclose it to the public before April 8, 2022, and submit the written statement and other attachments of the controlling shareholder at the same time.
turnover: 1.4 billion; institutional shipment: 600 million
In addition to the regulatory concern letter, Cccg Real Estate Corporation Limited(000736) what is more worthy of vigilance is that the organization began to ship goods and made great efforts.
On April 1, the internal division of the real estate sector began, but Cccg Real Estate Corporation Limited(000736) still opened strongly and rushed to the board quickly. During this period, it was opened briefly, and then it was sealed stably. There were still 110000 closing orders (900000 on the same day). This seems to be a "hard board", but the funds behind it have actually "undercurrent surging".
The dragon and tiger list disclosed after hours shows that the purchase funds are actually relatively scattered. The total purchase of the top five seats is only 171 million yuan, accounting for 12.2% of the transaction volume of 1.396 billion yuan on the same day. Buy five Huaxin Shanghai Ruby business department bought more than 26 million yuan, that is to say, most of the bill is less than 26 million yuan.
The selling list is completely another painting style. The top three are sold for more than 100 million yuan, of which the first is sold for 223 million yuan and the second is sold for more than 200 million yuan. Four of the five seats are institutions, with a total selling amount of 599 million yuan, accounting for 43% of the whole day's turnover. Another Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Shanghai Branch sold more than 57 million yuan.
From the trend of the whole real estate sector on April 1, although it is still active, it is not the strongest outlet of the day, and the interior has been significantly differentiated. On the disk of the day, the epidemic recovery line represented by port shipping, hotel tourism and airport has obviously gained the upper hand, pushing down the real estate sector. Recently, the once active pharmaceutical stocks have ebbed under the leadership of China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) leading.
From the internal perspective of the real estate sector, the highest space leader Tianjin Tianbao Infrastructure Co.Ltd(000965) has shown fatigue, with wide intraday volatility, and the transaction volume has reached an all-time high, while Yango Group Co.Ltd(000671) , Sundy Land Investment Co.Ltd(600077) and other early high-level stocks have approached the limit, and Tianjin Realty Development (Group) Co.Ltd(600322) , Tianjin Hi-Tech Development Co.Ltd(600082) and other strong stocks in the past few days have also experienced large-scale shocks.
In this case, how far can Cccg Real Estate Corporation Limited(000736) which still looks like a "hard core" go? See you after the Qingming Festival.
Brokerage: high credit real estate goes further
Although the recent short-term rise of real estate stocks is not small, brokerage analysts still seem to be more optimistic about the follow-up space. The main logical point is that the policy continues to relax expectations and the improvement of the competition pattern of the industry. However, most brokerage companies are more optimistic about high credit real estate enterprises than the recently fried small real estate enterprises and out of danger real estate enterprises.
In terms of policy, the meeting of the Finance Committee of the State Council clearly mentioned real estate, saying that "with regard to real estate enterprises, we should timely study and put forward effective risk prevention and resolution response plans, and put forward supporting measures for the transformation to a new development model". Under the premise of "no speculation in housing and housing", the regulation policies of local real estate market are becoming more and more flexible. According to incomplete statistics, more than 60 cities across the country have issued policies to deregulate the property market.
On March 1 this year, Zhengzhou fired the first shot of "canceling the purchase restriction" and announced the cancellation of the "housing and loan recognition policy". Recently, from the Fuzhou Real Estate Trading Center, it was confirmed that the purchase of the registered residence in Fuzhou's main urban area has no need to provide social security or tax certificate or settlement, and it has already been able to handle the transfer procedures. Since March, restrictive measures such as purchase and sale restrictions have been cancelled in Fuzhou, Zhengzhou, Harbin, Qingdao, Jimo and other places.
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) Huang Shitao and Bai Xuesong believe that real estate is an important pillar of China's economy. Stabilizing the economy requires stabilizing real estate. To achieve an economic growth rate of about 5.5% this year, it is inseparable from the stability of the real estate market.
However, at present, the degree of policy relaxation is not enough to boost the weak real estate demand, and there are still high expectations for improvement in the real estate policy. "The bottom of the current real estate market" has not yet appeared, and we expect that the current round of policy relaxation will be further strengthened ".
In the medium and long term, with the contraction of some risk real estate enterprises, the industry structure will be optimized, and the market share of leading real estate enterprises with financing, operation advantages and abundant liquidity is expected to increase. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading enterprises with high credit in the field of rental housing: Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China overseas development, 5I5J Holding Group Co.Ltd(000560) .
Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) analyst Chen Gang also said that in the short term, with the release of policies and the improvement of stability maintenance expectations, the industry policy atmosphere is relatively friendly during this period, and there will be a big game in the market for the reduction of default risk of private enterprises. But in the long run, holding high credit real estate enterprises is a more stable strategy. "The advantage of financing will promote high credit real estate enterprises to gain advantages in the land and M & a market. The continuous land acquisition and promotion ability and high-quality credit endorsement are also expected to seize the opportunity when the demand recovers. It is recommended that China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) ."
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) securities also said that in the past, the second tier central state-owned enterprises with backward financing will usher in a historic opportunity to greatly expand enterprise statements and superimpose the current market downturn, which will not only usher in high-speed development, but also exchange for counter cyclical growth.
