2021 the 9th choice "best analyst" selection activity has ended, and the 9th choice "best analyst" list was grandly announced on January 18, 2022
how to refine top ten analysts? They stand at the forefront of capital market research and master the latest developments of the industry. How to grasp the investment opportunities in subdivided fields in 2022? Ni Wenyi, chief analyst of Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) metal materials group, the best analyst of 2021 in this China stock market news choice data dialogue, invites you to share the thinking feast
Congratulations on winning the title of best analyst in 2021. Thank you very much for your conversation with the editor.
1. How do you feel about winning the 2021 best analyst award? What do you think is the right thing to win the prize? Where else can we do better
Since joining the industry, I have also won many awards, but this is the first time to win the first award of industry analyst, so I feel very honored.
The 21st year is a big year of the cycle, with steel, coal, nonferrous metals and other cyclical sectors leading the rise. The award is mainly based on the long-term tracking of the fundamentals of the industry and the company in the past. Therefore, we can have a better grasp of the changes in the industries we cover.
Since the end of last year, I have increased the coverage of non-ferrous sectors. As a newcomer in the non-ferrous industry and an old man in the iron and steel industry, we also need to conduct more in-depth study and Research on relevant industries and companies, hoping to be as familiar as the iron and steel industry. Of course, it also takes time to accumulate.
2. In the past two years, the epidemic has been repeated. What impact has this had on your work? Has the number of research and roadshows decreased? What is the proportion of field research and roadshows
The epidemic situation in the past two years has indeed had a great impact on our work and life. For example, in terms of working methods, online communication, teleconference and other forms have become the new normal; For example, in terms of work plan, the repeated epidemic has brought more changes to our work management arrangement. It is common for sudden epidemic to change the research roadshow schedule.
However, the number of research and roadshows has not decreased significantly. When the epidemic occurs, it is more carried out through online communication; When the epidemic situation eases, we will speed up the pace and conduct more research on customers who haven't run before and customers who haven't talked before. As far as I'm concerned, research and roadshows are basically held in May.
3. What do you think is the biggest change in the steel field you are concerned about in the past two years? Will this trend continue? What new changes do you expect in 2022
The steel industry is the most typical cyclical industry. After the supply side reform in 2016 and 2017, I think there are several important changes:
First, the operation and management ability of enterprises has been greatly improved. In the past, the phenomenon of running, emitting, dripping and leaking of large enterprises was very common. After the huge losses of the industry in the last round of 15 years and the recovery of profits from supply side reform in 16 and 17 years, steel enterprises generally realized and grasped the dividends of this cycle and accelerated the pace of cost reduction and efficiency increase. In fact, this is not a single company, but a common situation in the industry. Typical representative enterprises such as Fangda Special Steel Technology Co.Ltd(600507) , Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) , Chongqing Iron & Steel Company Limited(601005) , Sansteel Minguang Co.Ltd.Fujian(002110) and so on can be clearly reflected in the statements of various steel enterprises.
Second, investment in environmental protection, energy conservation and emission reduction continued to increase. In the past, everyone had the impression that the concept of steel mills was dusty and disorderly. With the dual carbon goal put forward by the state and the continuous improvement of profitability in the past few years, steel enterprises consciously and effectively continued to increase investment in environmental protection. Many steel enterprises can now be called "Huayuan steel mills"; At the same time, steel enterprises are also accelerating the development of new technologies and accelerating energy conservation and emission reduction.
Third, the trend of merger and reorganization. At present, the concentration of the iron and steel industry is still low. In the past few years, it has been the industry leader represented by "Baowu". Accelerating the pace of merger and improving the industry concentration will be the general trend.
4. The iron and steel industry has always been regarded as a strong cycle industry. The demand side is greatly affected by real estate, infrastructure and other industries, and the supply side is greatly affected by the implementation of the double carbon strategy. At which stage of the cycle is the iron and steel industry at present? What is the expected evolution path of the changes in demand and supply after the festival
At present, this direction remains unchanged; On the demand side, with the steady growth this year and the gradual implementation of the policy of real estate implementation due to the city, the demand is also guaranteed; On the cost side, iron ore supply is likely to exceed demand this year. Therefore, we judge that the industry profit is expected to continue to maintain a relatively good level. Of course, it is difficult to exceed the level in the first three quarters of last year, but historically, the current profit level is still historically good.
5. In the steel industry you are concerned about, what do you think are the main investment opportunities in 2022? Why
We continue to be optimistic about the opportunities of the special steel industry. Most of the downstream industries are high-end manufacturing industries such as military industry, aerospace and petrochemical, superimposed with some import substitution, and the demand is growing for a long time. The barriers of related products are high, and the related listed companies have a certain moat.
6. Can you introduce it to ordinary investors? Which industries / financial indicators are the most important to judge whether the steel industry / company has entered the field of value investment
Gross profit level of our main industries.
Thank you for your sharing. I wish you a prosperous and prosperous year in 2022!
